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Electric Drive Train Systems Technology Evolution and Global Market Potential in Commercial Vehicles, Forecast to 2030

  • Report

  • 106 Pages
  • November 2019
  • Region: Global
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 4856427

Battery, Motor, and Power Electronics Market will Gain Growth Momentum, and the Revenue is Estimated to be $44.72 Billion by 2030

Electrification in Commercial Vehicles (CV) will increase globally with the framing of strict emission regulations. The growing electric CV market will open up opportunities for new technologies and components that drive the vehicle. This study provides an overview of the key technology trends in the electric drive train component market and also provides the component market revenue forecast between 2018 and 2030. Several architectures and types of drive train components in electric CV are studied in brief. Analysts predict that the electric drive train market for CV will reach $44.72 billion in revenue in 2030 globally, growing at a CAGR of 17.7% between 2018 and 2030. This research study covers battery, motors, inverters, and wiring harness used in electric CVs.

China will clearly dominate, with approximately 64.8% share of the global market by 2030, driven mainly by aggressive incentive structures for electric vehicles, technology readiness, and the installation of recharging stations in large scale. Europe and North America are expected to be the next largest markets after China, with more number of product line-ups planned by native manufacturers.

Batteries will be the largest segment by value, with revenue crossing $40.82 billion by 2030. With the increasing demand for batteries, the price is expected to fall to below $100 per KWh by 2030 and the lower battery cost will make the trucks commercially viable for fleets. CVs will largely adopt the Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) battery chemistry due to high discharge capacities and optimal pricing. Mostly, light-duty trucks follow central motor architecture and medium- and heavy-duty trucks follow the wheel hub architecture, that will adopt in-wheel architecture in the future. Permanent magnet motors will be widely used in small GVWR segments and induction motors will be preferred in large GVWR segments. Switched reluctance motors will gain popularity after 2025. The xEV motor market’s revenue is estimated to be $2.46 billion in 2030, with China leading the market.

Power electronics is another large segment in the EV component market. Silicon Carbide (SiC) and Gallium Nitride (GaN) semiconductors will be preferred over silicon semiconductors for improved performance and packaging benefits in designing inverters. The inverter market is estimated to grow to $1.32 billion in 2030 from $0.28 billion in 2018. Single and multicore wire harness made from aluminium or copper alloys with high-end fluoro rubber insulation will be the key technologies to address high-voltage safety and durability at higher voltages. OEMs are looking for new wiring harness technologies that help in weight reduction. The author forecasts the wiring harness market to be $130 million in 2030.

Along with technology acquisition, intense competition is foreseen among component manufacturers to adopt technologies and gain market share. With the increasing potential, OEMs will soon start manufacturing the components in-house, rather than sourcing from Tier-1 manufacturers. With a growing demand for electric trucks and buses, the component industries in Europe and China are expanding their production goals and investment strategies, as the market value is expected to be more than $44.72 billion by 2030.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • Key Findings
  • Evolution of Electrically Driven Commercial Mobility
  • Factors Driving Electrification
  • EV Technology Roadmap
  • Global Electric CV Market Forecast - Overview
  • Global Electric CV Drivetrain Component Market - Revenue Forecast
  • Key Joint Ventures in Battery and Fuel Cell - 2019
  • Electric Drive Train Component Supplier Analysis
  • C.A.S.E.ification - Conclusions and Implications

2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
  • Research Scope
  • Powertrain Technology Segmentation
  • Definitions
  • Electric Motors in Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions this Study will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology
  • Partial List of Industry Participants

3. Market Environment and Dynamics
  • Key Factors Impacting Electrification
  • Legislative Factors Analysis
  • Economic Factors Analysis
  • Infrastructure Factors Analysis
  • Technological Factors Analysis

4. Electric Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook
  • Electric CV - Unit Forecast Scenario Analysis
  • Global Electric CV Market Forecast - Overview
  • Electric CV Market Potential - 2030
  • Global Uptake of xEV in CV
  • Electric LDT Unit Forecast by Region and Powertrain Type
  • Electric MDT Unit Forecast by Region and Powertrain Type
  • Electric HDT Unit Forecast by Region and Powertrain Type
  • Electric Bus Unit Forecast by Region and Powertrain Type

5. Key Trend Impacting Battery Chemistries
  • Schematic Representation of Battery Placement in Electric CV
  • Future of Battery Chemistries
  • Lithium-Ion Batteries Look Promising
  • NMC Battery Chemistry Gains Popularity
  • Li-ion Battery Cost Breakdown
  • Li-ion Battery Cell Cost Breakdown by Chemistry
  • Battery Pack Cost Analysis
  • Battery Capacity and Revenue Forecast by Region
  • Battery Production Scenario - Regional Overview
  • Battery Production Capacity by Manufacturer
  • OEM - Battery Capacity Analysis
  • Vehicle Range and Battery Capacity
  • Battery Chemistry Analysis - Key OEMs
  • OEM - Supplier Mapping

6. Drive Line Architecture and Motors
  • Electric Motor Roadmap
  • Schematic Representation of Electric Driveline Configurations
  • Electric Driveline Architecture
  • Electric Driveline Architecture Benchmarking
  • Rare Earth Metals in Permanent Magnets
  • Induction Motor to Gain Popularity by 2025
  • Electric Motor Benchmarking
  • North America - Unit Motor Forecast by Segment
  • North America - Unit Forecast by Motor Type and Power Rating (kW)
  • Europe - Unit Motor Forecast by Segment
  • Europe - Unit Forecast by Motor Type and Power Rating (kW)
  • China - Unit Motor Forecast by Segment
  • China - Unit Forecast by Motor Type and Power Rating (kW)
  • India - Unit Motor Forecast by Segment
  • India - Unit Forecast by Motor Type and Power Rating (kW)
  • Global Electric CV Motor Revenue Forecast
  • Analysis of Motor Rating Broken Down by Power Range
  • Supplier-Motor Type Mapping - North America
  • Supplier-Motor Type Mapping - Europe

7. Power Electronics
  • Schematic Representation of Power Electronics Components
  • Power Electronics Roadmap
  • Future of Automotive Inverters
  • Inverter Capacity and Revenue Forecast by Region
  • Automotive Wire Harness Material Roadmap
  • Cable Construction for a High Voltage xEV Application
  • Current and Future Insulator Material in Wire Harness
  • Revenue Forecast by Region of Wire Harness Forecast
  • xEV Power Electronics - Supplier Mapping

8. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
  • Growth Opportunity
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

9. Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • Electric Drive Train Component Future Outlook
  • Key Conclusion
  • The Last Word - 3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

10. Appendix
  • Market Engineering Methodology
  • List of Exhibits