Looking at the market development across Europe in 2018, figuring in the first quarter of 2019 and integrating the outlook for the rest of this year leaves an entirely positive for the development of the sector.
Heat pumps have finally arrived in society. They are recognized as using renewable and waste energy, their energy efficiency and cost savings potential is well understood, they are applauded for their inherent reduction of CO2 emissions in heating and for their contribution to sector integration. And this is not only an academic consideration but results in a more than positive development in sales numbers.
By the end of 2018, a total of 11.80 million heat pump units have been installed in the 21 countries covered by this report. This is a plus of 12.5% or 1.26 million units over 2017. The leading markets continue to be France, Italy and Spain. Together they are responsible for more than half of the annual heat pump sales in Europe. Most remarkable France is now close to a 10-year growth path and continues to be the engine for further growth. The Netherlands has declared its aim to become “gas-free” in residential heating, the UK has announced a ban of oil and gas boilers in new buildings, Ireland has put heat pumps at the corner of its efforts in decarbonizing the building stock. Even those countries that have no specific policy in place see a positive market development.
This report features:
- 2018 sales figures on 21 European countries
- EU policy trends
- Industry trends
- EHPA Forecast
1. Executive Summary
2. Energy Trends
3.1 Implementation of the Clean energy package - 2030 objectives
3.2 Decarbonisation of the EU - 2050 objectives
3.4 Refrigerants related policies -F-gas
3.5 Horizontal & emerging topics
4. The European Heat Pump Market in 2018
4.1 European Heat pump market development
4.2 Market segmentation
4.3 Heat pump Benefits
4.4 Market Drivers
4.5 EHPA Forecast
4.6 Heat Pump development potential
4.7 Heat pump market shares across Europe
5. Country Reports
- Czech Republic
- Slovak Republic
European heat pump sales grew by 12.5% in 2018 – the fourth double-digit growth in a row. With 1.26 million units sold across Europe yet a new sales record has been achieved. Assuming a life expectancy of approx. 20 years, the current European heat pump stock amounts to 11.80 million units. With approximately 244 million residential buildings in Europe, the heat pump market share in the building stock is about 5%.
Heat pump market growth is mainly influenced by three trends:
1. From a technology perspective, today's heat pumps can cover a wider temperature range. They still operate at -25°C and increasingly often they provide hot water at 65°C in an efficient manner. That enables their deployment in a much larger share of buildings than a decade ago. Hybrid systems enable heat pumps even in the renovation segment.
2. The need to accelerate the energy transition also in the heating and cooling sector moves heat pumps to the centre of attention of policymakers. Legislation passed in the past 8 years is now transposed in all member states and it starts to show impact. Building standards limit maximum heat demand per m2, mandate the integration of renewable energy and favour smart buildings. This is often substantiated by institutional and financial subsidies that make market development easier.
3. Continuously larger and growing sales numbers result in lower cost. Economies of scale are materialising on the component and the product level. The fast decline of the production cost of PV systems also influences the heating market: using self-produced electricity in combination with a heat pump system provides a very low-cost energy source for buildings. Additional benefits like demand response services provided to the grid (which could become a business model and provide an income for their providers) are on the horizon but have not yet materialised.