Cross-border E-Commerce to be affected by Brexit
The UK is the world’s third-largest online retail market, and the top market in Europe. The looming Brexit on 31 January 2020 is expected to have significant consequences for regional and domestic B2C E-Commerce. In particular, a no-deal Brexit could negatively affect cross-border online exports of UK sellers to the EU, as online shoppers would refrain from buying internationally if additional costs apply after checkout, according to the survey data cited in the report. At the same time, non-EU destinations are already more popular among UK online shoppers when buying cross-border, and their lead over EU sellers could strengthen after Brexit.
E-Commerce could increase its share of UK retail thanks to Brexit
As another potential consequence, Brexit could help E-Commerce gain an even higher share of overall retail sales in the UK, already reaching above one-fifth, according to some estimates referenced in the report. Weaker demand for non-food items as a result of consumers’ worries over the outcome of Brexit hit store-based retail more severely than it did E-Commerce. By 2023, more than one-quarter of UK’s overall retail sales could be online.
- This report focuses on the implications of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU, or Brexit, for B2C E-Commerce in the UK and the EU.
- A broad definition of retail E-Commerce used by some original sources cited in this report might include both B2C and C2C E-Commerce.
- The report starts with a qualitative overview of Brexit and its potential impact on the B2C E-Commerce market in the UK. In addition, a brief summary of selected major EU regulations relating to E-Commerce in the context of Brexit is included.
- Afterwards, a snapshot of the B2C E-Commerce market in the UK is provided, including E-Commerce sales projections, the E-Commerce share of total retail sales, online shopper penetration and breakdown, and a ranking of the top product categories purchased online.
- The next section cites the results of recent UK E-Commerce merchant surveys concerning their expectations of Brexit. Moreover, examples of how selected leading online retailers are preparing for Brexit are provided.
- The last two chapters of the report are devoted to the implications of Brexit for the cross-border E-Commerce sales flows between the UK and the EU. The first of them focuses on the impact of Brexit on the UK’s cross-border E-Commerce exports to the EU, and the second is devoted to its impact on UK cross-border ECommerce imports from the EU. Both chapters cite the results of relevant online shoppers and retailers’ surveys regarding Brexit.
Please note: For this report, the purchase of an Enterprise licence allows up to ten worldwide users of an organization access to the report
1. Management Summary
2. Regional Overview
- UK: Overview of The Impact of Brexit on B2C E-Commerce, November 2019
- UK: Overview of Selected EU Regulations Related to E-Commerce in the Brexit Context, Oct. 2019
3. UK E-Commerce Market Snapshot
- Global: Top 10 Countries Worldwide by Retail E-Commerce Sales, in USD billion, by Canada, China, India, Germany, France, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the UK, the USA, 2018 & 2019f
- UK: Retail E-Commerce Sales, in GBP billion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2017 – 2023f
- UK: Breakdown of Retail Sales by E-Commerce and Non-E-Commerce, in %, 2018 - 2023f
- UK: Online Shopper Penetration, in % of Adults, by Age Group and Gender, 2013 - 2019
- UK: Breakdown of Frequency of Shopping Online During a Three-Month Period, in % of Online Shoppers, by Age Group and Gender, 2019
- UK: Breakdown of Online Spending During a Three-Month Period, in GBP, in % of Online Shoppers, by Age Group and Gender, 2019
- UK: Product Categories Purchased Online, in % of Adults, 2019
4. UK E-Commerce Merchant Expectations of Brexit
- UK: Share of E-Commerce Decision-Makers at B2B and D2C Companies Who Believe That a No-Deal Brexit Will Impact Their E-Commerce Offering, in %, October 2019
- UK: Expected Impacts of a No-Deal Brexit on E-Commerce, in % of E-Commerce Decision-Makers at B2B and D2C Companies, October 2019
- UK: Share of E-Commerce Decision-Makers at B2B and D2C Companies Who Believe That Their Organization Is Not Fully Prepared for Brexit, in %, October 2019
- UK: Share of Retailers Who Have No Plans In Place For Brexit, in %, June 2019
- UK: Retailers’ Actions Concerning Their International Operations and Strategies Since The 2016 Referendum, in %, June 2019
- UK: Examples of UK E-Commerce Merchants Preparing for Brexit, 2019
5. Implications for UK-EU Cross-Border E-Commerce
- Europe: Top 3 European Countries That Online Shoppers in Europe Buy Cross-Border From, in %, 2018
- Europe: Share of Cross-Border Online Shoppers in Selected Countries in Europe Who Made Their Latest Cross-Border Online Purchase From the UK, in %, 2018
- Ireland: Breakdown of the Number of Purchases Made by Shoppers in Ireland from Sellers in the UK in the Past 2 Years, in %, August 2019
- Ireland: Expectations of Shoppers in Ireland Who Bought Online From the UK Regarding Their Online Shopping Behavior After Brexit, in %, August 2019
- Ireland: Expectations of Consumers in Ireland Regarding Adjusting Their Online Shopping Behavior if Brexit Went Ahead in October 2019, in %, September 2019
- Europe: Share of Online Shoppers in Europe Currently Buying Cross-Border from UK Websites Who Would Stop Buying From Foreign Websites In Case of Additional Costs After Checkout, in %, June 2019
- Europe: Share of Online Shoppers in Europe Currently Buying Cross-Border from UK Websites Who Would Stop Buying In Case of Additional Costs After Checkout, in %, by Selected Countries, June 2019
- EU and North America: Breakdown of Cross-Border Online Shoppers’ Expectations Regarding Purchasing from UK E-Commerce Websites After Brexit, in % of Cross-Border Online Shoppers in the EU and North America, July 2018
- EU and North America: Factors That Would Deter Cross-Border Online Shoppers in the EU and North America From Buying From UK E-Commerce Websites After Brexit, in % of Cross-Border Online Shoppers in the EU and North America, July 2018
- UK: Share of Cross-Border E-Commerce Retailers in the UK Who Believe That Selling to Shoppers Internationally Will Become More Complex After Brexit, in %, June 2019
- UK: Share of Retailers Believing That Sales to The European Economic Area (EEA) Will Decrease After Brexit, in %, June 2019
- UK: Share of E-Commerce Sellers Who Rely on the EU for Some or Most of Their E-Commerce Export Revenue Growth, in %, September 2018
- UK: Most Desired International Markets Outside the EU According to UK E-Commerce Sellers, in %, September 2018
6. Implications for Cross-Border E-Commerce Imports From the EU to the UK
- UK: Cross-Border Online Shopper Penetration in the UK, by Online Shoppers Buying From Other EU Countries and from the Rest of the World, in % of Online Shoppers in the UK, 2013 - 2019
- UK: Share of Online Shoppers in the UK Buying from European Websites Cross-Border Who Would Stop Buying Cross-Border In Case of Additional Costs After Checkout, in %, June 2019
- UK: Top 3 Countries That Cross-Border Online Shoppers in the UK Made Their Latest Purchase From, in %, 2018
- Germany: Breakdown of Expectations of German-Speaking E-Commerce and Digital Service Companies Regarding the Effects of Brexit on Their Business, in %, January 2019
- Germany: Specific Effects That German-Speaking E-Commerce and Digital Service Companies Expect Brexit to Have on Their Businesses, in %, January 2019