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Canadian Payments Forecast, 2025

  • Report

  • 140 Pages
  • August 2025
  • Region: Canada
  • Technology Strategies International
  • ID: 5997272

Canadian Payments Confront a New Era: Economic Volatility and Changing Consumer Behavior Redefine the Road to 2030

The Canadian payments landscape has experienced unprecedented turbulence over the past four years, primarily due to the pandemic, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, supply chain challenges, high inflation, and rising interest rates. While inflation is now under control and interest rates are on a downward trajectory, the deteriorating relationship with the US and the threat of a protracted trade war have added to the tumult and could have a substantial negative impact on the Canadian economy. These developments on the political and economic fronts will continue to impact consumer spending patterns, one of the key drivers of the payments industry in Canada.

Canadian Payments Forecast, 2025 provides detailed insights into how these developments affecting the Canadian economy are likely to play out in terms of consumer spending and payment choices. The report also examines how new technologies, business models, and fintechs will play a crucial role in shaping this future.

Key Market Highlights:

  • Total Number of Consumer Payments (2024): 23 billion
  • Total Value of Consumer Payments (2024): C$1.65 trillion
  • Mobile Payments Share of Transaction Value (2024): 13%
  • Mobile Payments Growth: 2024-2029 (CAGR): 12% p.a.

Drawing on survey research from more than 2,000 Canadian consumers, Canadian Payments Forecast, 2025 is a critical strategic resource for payment professionals, providing essential in-depth insights and forecasts across all consumer payment modalities to facilitate effective strategic planning and product development in the wake of the pandemic and the likely impact of geopolitical conflict.

Canadian Payments Forecast, 2025 provides an in-depth analysis of each of the major consumer payment segments in the Canadian market. Detailed five-year forecasts are presented on consumer payments and related acceptance infrastructure. Payment types included in the report:

  • Cash
  • Cheques
  • Debit cards
  • Credit cards
  • Contactless payments
  • Online payments
  • Mobile payments
  • Bill payments and transfers
  • Prepaid cards
  • Virtual currencies
  • Gift cards
  • P2P payments
  • International remittances
  • Wearable payments

Included in this year's comprehensive update of the report:

  • In-depth analysis on prospects for the Canadian economy, personal consumption expenditure, and the retail sector as Canada moves towards a softer economy
  • Analysis and forecast for each major consumer payment segment in the wake of developments in the Canadian economy
  • An in-depth assessment of the penetration and acceptance of emerging payment technologies and how these will shape the future of payments
  • Key Indicator tables for all major payment modes

Recognized by industry leaders as the most comprehensive, authoritative, and independent review of the market available in Canada, Canadian Payments Forecast is now in its 16th year of publication. A strategic resource for payment professionals, the report provides essential in-depth planning information for executives and managers responsible for achieving growth in Canada's payment industry.

Methodology:

  • Desk research
  • Executive interviews
  • Excerpts from the analyst's primary market research among 2,000 consumers
  • Analysis and insight, based on 30+ years of advising clients in the international payments market

Table of Contents


1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. INTRODUCTION
  • Objectives
  • Methodology
  • Forecasts
  • Currency
  • Some Notes on this Year’s Report
  • Document Navigation
  • Acknowledgements
  • List of Abbreviations
3. MARKET ANALYSIS
  • The Canadian Economy
  • Consumer Payments in Perspective
  • Cash
  • Cheques
  • Debit
  • Credit Cards
  • Contactless
  • Mobile
  • Online
  • Bill Payments and Transfers
  • Wearable Payments
  • Prepaid Cards (Payment Brands)
  • Gift Cards
  • Person-to-Person (P2P) Payments
  • International Remittances
  • Virtual Currencies
LIST OF CHARTS AND TABLES
  • INTRODUCTION
    • Forecasting Approach
    • USD/CAD Exchange Rate
  • THE CANADIAN ECONOMY
    • Economic Highlights
    • Annual Change in Real GDP, PCE and Retail Sales (2013-2024)
    • Canadian Retail Sales by Sector (2024)
    • Growth in Retail Trade by Segment (Growth in 2024; CAGR: 2024-2029)
    • Forecast Real Growth in GDP (2024-2029)
    • Canadian Consumer Confidence Index (December 2006 - July 2025)
    • Forecast Real Growth in GDP, Retail Sales and PCE (2024-2029)
    • Components of PCE (2024 and 2029)
  • CONSUMER PAYMENTS IN PERSPECTIVE
    • Primary Payment Highlights
    • Bill Payments Highlights
    • Secondary Payment Highlights
    • Vertical Market Highlights
    • Share of Value of PCE by Payment Type (2010-2024)
    • Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument Type (2010-2024)
    • Forecast Share of Value of PCE by Payment Type (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument Type (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Value of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument Type (Total; 2024-2029)
    • Forecast Total Number of Payment Transactions by Payment Instrument Type (Total; 2024-2029)
    • Forecast Annual Growth Rates for Primary Payment Instruments (CAGR: 2024-2029)
    • Forecast Growth for Secondary Payment Segments (CAGR: 2024-2029)
  • CASH
    • Cash Highlights
    • Canadian Bank Notes and Coin in Circulation (2009-2024)
    • Number of ABMs in Canada by Ownership (2009-2024)
    • Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at ABMs in Canada (2009-2024)
    • Cash Available for Consumer Payment Transactions (2009-2024)
    • Value and Volume of Cash Transactions (2009-2024)
    • Forecast Number of ABMs in Canada by Ownership (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals in Canada (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Cash Available for Consumer Payment Transactions (2024-2029)
    • Forecast of Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in Canada (2024-2029)
  • CHEQUES
    • Cheque Highlights
    • Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2008-2024)
    • Reasons for Using Personal Cheques (P12M)
    • Forecast Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2024-2029)
  • DEBIT
    • Debit Highlights
    • Value and Volume of Interac Debit Transactions (2010-2024)
    • Forecast Value and Volume of Interac Debit Transactions (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Number of Merchants and Terminals
    • Accepting Interac Debit Payments (2024-2029)
  • CREDIT CARDS
    • Credit Card Highlights
    • Forecast Total Number of Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2024-2029)
    • Gross Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2010-2024)
    • Value of Credit Card Transactions by Type (2010-2024)
    • Number of Credit Card Transactions by Type (2010-2024)
    • Forecast Gross Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Value of Credit Card Transactions by Type (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Volume Credit Card Transactions by Type (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa and MasterCard (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Canadian Credit Card Loans (2024-2029)
  • CONTACTLESS
    • Contactless Highlights
    • Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2017-2024)
    • Contactless Card Ownership by Brand
    • Usage of Contactless Payments Cards at Merchants (P6M)
    • Forecast Installed Base of Contactless Payment Terminals (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Contactless as a Proportion of Total Cash, Debit and Credit Transactions (2024-2029)
  • MOBILE
    • Mobile Highlights
    • Forecast Number of Mobile Subscribers in Canada (2024-2029)
    • Primary smartphone Operating System Ownership (2015-2025)
    • Payment Applications Installed on Smartphones
    • Usage of smartphones for Mobile Banking (P6M)
    • Payments Made Using a Smartphone (P6M)
    • Volume and Value of All Mobile Payments Transactions (2015-2024)
    • Forecast Volume and Value of All Mobile Payment Transactions (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Volume and Value of Contactless Mobile Payments (2024-2029)
  • ONLINE
    • Online Highlights
    • Volume and Value of Online Purchases in Canada (2010-2024)
    • Categories for Online Purchases (P12M)
    • Payment Methods for Online Purchases (P12M)
    • Use of One Click Services for Online Purchases (P12M)
    • Online Purchases by Region (2015-2025: P12M)
    • Forecast Volume and Value of Online Purchases in Canada (2024-2029)
  • BILL PAYMENTS AND TRANSFERS
    • Bill Payments and Transfers Highlights
    • Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2011-2024)
    • Share of Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2011-2024)
    • Online Bill Payments by Category (P12M)
    • Forecast Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Share of Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Value of Bill Payments (2024-2029)
    • Growth by Delivery Channel and Transaction Type (CAGR: 2019-2024, 2024-2029)
  • WEARABLE PAYMENTS
    • Wearable Highlights
    • Forecast Ownership of Wearable Devices (2024-2029)
    • Forecast Wearables Payment Values and Volumes (2024-2029)
  • PREPAID CARDS (PAYMENT BRANDS)
    • Prepaid Card Highlights
    • Total Prepaid Value and Volume (2014-2024)
    • Brand of Prepaid Card Purchased (P12M)
    • Forecast Prepaid Value and Volume (2024-2029)
  • GIFT CARDS
    • Gift Card Highlights
    • Total Gift Card Value and Volume (2014-2024)
    • Categories of Gift Cards / Vouchers Purchased (P12M)
    • Forecast Gift Card Value and Number of Cards Purchased (2024-2029)
  • PERSON-2-PERSON (P2P) PAYMENTS
    • P2P Payment Highlights
    • Value and Volume of P2P Transactions (2015-2024)
    • Methods of P2P Payment (P6M)
    • Forecast Value and Volume of P2P Transactions (2024-2029)
  • INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES
    • International Remittance Highlights
    • Value and Volume of International Remittances (2014-2024)
    • Services Used for International Remittances (P12M)
    • International Remittances by Region (P12M)
    • Forecast Value and Volume of International Remittances (2024-2029)
  • VIRTUAL CURRENCIES
    • Awareness and Usage of Cryptocurrencies (2025)
    • Virtual Currency Usage Intent Trend

Samples

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