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Latin America OTT TV and Video Forecasts

  • ID: 5004233
  • Report
  • March 2020
  • Region: Latin America
  • 188 Pages
  • Digital TV Research
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OTT TV and Video Revenues are Forecast to Reach $66 Million in 2025

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Amazon Prime Video
  • Cabletica
  • Disney+
  • Fox Play
  • Millicom
  • Sling
  • MORE

Latin America will have 81 million SVOD subscriptions by 2025; almost double the 42 million recorded at end-2019. This growth comes despite the recession affecting most countries in the region.

Five US-based platforms (Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Apple TV+ and HBO) will account for 88% of the region’s paying SVOD subscriptions by end-2025. This proportion was already as high as 85% in 2019 despite Disney+ and Apple TV+ not yet starting operations.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst, said: “These US-based players will grow but the local platforms will stall. Claro Video is often available free to its top spending mobile subscribers. Telefonica/Movistar may sell its remaining non-Brazilian assets.”

Published in March 2020, this 188-page PDF, PowerPoint and excel report covers 19 countries.

The report comes in three parts:

  • Outlook: Subscriber forecasts and bullet points for 19 countries in a visually-appealing 43-page PowerPoint document;
  • Forecasts: Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2025 for 19 countries by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers and by OTT revenues for movies and TV episodes. As well as summary tables by country and by platform;
  • Insights: Detailed country-by-country analysis in a 64-page PDF document.

OTT TV and video revenues are forecast to reach $66 million in 2025 – up from $36 million in 2019. SVOD will supply $49 million of the 2025 total, up from $28 million in 2019. Gross SVOD penetration will reach 37.9% of TV households by 2025, up from 22.5% in 2019 – or 595,000 SVOD subscriptions by 2025 and 328,000 in 2019.

Main assumptions behind the forecasts

  • The OTT sector is rapidly becoming very competitive, which is likely to force down monthly fees.
  • There are plenty of free platforms available to pay TV and mobile subs
  • It is one of the wealthiest countries in Central America.

Highlights of the report:

  • Piracy (including underreporting of subs numbers by the legitimate operators) remains a major problem, even though Costa Rica is one of the wealthiest countries in Central America.
  • Netflix launched in September 2011. We estimate that Netflix had 242,000subscribers in Costa Rica by end-2019, rising to 329,000 in 2025. Netflix has a distribution deal with Tigo. The one-month free trial was dropped in March 2019.
  • Amazon Prime Video started operations in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Subscriptions are cheaper than Netflix at COL3,600/month ($6.08), but Amazon offers little original or local content. Tigo carries the platform. We forecast 26,000 Amazon Prime Video subscribers by 2025.
  • Disney+ outlined its plans to enter Latin America between October and December 2020. It will be cheaper than Netflix at US$6.99/month. We believe that this will be the most successful of the new platform launches, with 115,000 subscribers by 2025.
  • Targeting families, Disney+ will offer 7,500 TV episodes (including National Geographic and all 30 seasons of The Simpsons) and more than 400 library movies (including the whole Disney range – for the first time, Star Wars, Pixar and Marvel). The platform will also include original and non-Disney content.  
  • Apple TV+ ($4.99/month) launched in 100 countries in November 2019. The ad-free platform will offer original content, with an annual production budget exceeding the original target of $2 billion. We forecast 19,000 subs by 2025.
  • HBO Go launched as a standalone platform in June 2017. HBO is more expensive than its rivals at $10/month. HBO Go offers 2,500 titles. We expect 15,000 paying subscribers by 2025.
  • In February 2016, Televisa announced the launch of its Blim SVOD platform across Spanish-speaking Latin America. Televisa has withdrawn its content from Netflix. Blim provides 32,000 hours of content. We expect 8,000 subscribers by 2025.
  • Claro Video (COL3,000/month ($5.07)) started in Costa Rica in April 2014. We expect 58,000 subscribers by 2025. For its top paying subs, Claro Play offers free on-demand as well as access to SVOD platforms such as ESPN Play and Fox Play.  Claro TV won a 15-year satellite TV license in Costa Rica in January 2013. We estimate that Claro had 150,000 pay TV subs by end-2017. The company launched fiber broadband and voice services in April 2015, with IPTV packages announced in January 2016 as part of a triple-play bundle.
  • SVOD aggregator Tigo Play started in September 2016, giving access to Amazon Prime Video, Crackle, HBO Go, Fox Play, ESPN, Netflix and others. On-demand services started in July 2012, with 3,000 movies on offer. Its One TV platform started in April 2018, providing linear channels and on-demand titles.
  • Owned by Millicom, we estimate that Tigo had 216,000 pay TV subscribers in Costa Rica by end-2019. Tigo introduced triple-play bundles into Costa Rica in September 2011 – the first operator to do so in the country. After a brief flirtation with selling its assets to Liberty Global, Millicom acquired Telefonica’s assets in Panama, Nicaragua and Costa Rica in February 2019. Telefonica’s Movistar began satellite TV operations in January 2018. Telefonica has 12.5 million mobile subscribers in Central America, including 2.4 million in Costa Rica.  
  • Millicom acquired TeleCable Economico in December 2014. However, SUTEL refused to allow the deal to go through in May 2015 as it would push Tigo over the 35% limit for any one company in the pay TV sector.
  • Cabletica is one of the longest established cable operators. Lilac/Liberty Global took an 80% stake in the operator in February 2018. Cabletica had Cabletica had 207,000 pay TV subs by end-2019. Its fiber optic network launched in March 2017 (up to 100Mbps). Cabletica Play provides 5,000 on-demand titles.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Amazon Prime Video
  • Cabletica
  • Disney+
  • Fox Play
  • Millicom
  • Sling
  • MORE

Population (000)
Total households (000)
TV households (000)
Fixed broadband hholds (000)
Smartphone subscribers (000)
Tablet subscribers (000)   

TV HH/Total HH
Fixed broadband HH/Total HH
Smartphone subs/Population
Tablet subs/Population   

OTT TV & video fixed broadband households (000)
OTT TV & video HH/Fixed bband HH
OTT TV & video HH/TV HH   

OTT TV & video smartphone subs (000)
OTT TV video HH/smartph subs   

OTT TV & video total (000)   

Gross SVOD subscriptions (000)
SVOD subs/TVHH
SVOD subs/Fixed bband HH
SVOD subs/Smartphone users

Net SVOD homes (000)
SVOD homes/TVHH
SVOD homes/Fixed bband HH
SVOD subscriptions/SVOD homes

TV rental transactions (000)
Movie rental transactions (000)
Total rental transactions (000)
TV DTO transactions (000)
Movie DTO transactions (000)
Total DTO transactions (000)   

Online advg total (US$ mil.)

AVOD (US$ mil.)
Online TV rental revs (US$ mil.)
Online movie rent revs (US$ mil.)
Online rental revs (US$ mil.)
DTO TV revenues (US$ mil.)
DTO movie revenues (US$ mil.)
DTO video revenues (US$ mil.)
SVOD revenues (US$ mil.)
OTT TV & video revs (US$ mil.)

SVOD subscribers by operator (000)
Netflix
Amazon Prime Video
Disney+
Apple TV+
Blim
Claro Video
HBO  
Others

Share of SVOD subscribers by operator (%)
Netflix
Amazon Prime Video
Disney+  
Apple TV+  
Blim  
Claro Video
HBO  
Others       

SVOD revenues by operator (US$ mil.)
Netflix
Amazon Prime Video
Disney+
Apple TV+
Blim  
Claro Video
HBO
Others  

Share of SVOD revenues by operator (%)
Netflix
Amazon Prime Video
Disney+
Apple TV+
Blim
Claro Video
HBO
Others  

SVOD ARPU by operator ($)
Netflix
Amazon Prime Video
Disney+
Apple TV+
Blim
Claro Video
HBO    

AVOD revenues by platform ($ million)
YouTube
Facebook/Instagram
Other social media sites
FTA broadcasters
Pay TV broadcasters
AVOD platforms
Other

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • Amazon Prime Video
  • Apple TV+
  • Blim
  • Cabletica
  • Claro Video
  • Crackle
  • Disney+
  • ESPN
  • Flow fixed
  • Fox Play
  • Globo Play
  • HBO Go
  • Millicom
  • Movistar Play
  • Netflix
  • SUTEL
  • Sling
  • TV
  • TeleCable Economico
  • Telecine
  • Tigo
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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