Tunisia Power - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

Tunisia power market size in 2026 is estimated at 7.87 gigawatt, growing from 2025 value of 7.36 gigawatt with 2031 projections showing 11.04 gigawatt, growing at 6.98% CAGR over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Power Source (Thermal, Nuclear, and Renewables) and End-User (Utilities, Commercial and Industrial, and Residential). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).

Tunisia Power Market Trends and Insights

Gas-Fired Build-Out Under Plan Solaire Tunisien 2030

Tunisia aims for 30% renewable penetration by 2030, yet dispatchable gas remains essential for balancing intermittent output. STEG is refurbishing combined-cycle plants and adding quick-ramping gas turbines that operate 15-20 percentage points more efficiently than legacy units, lowering heat rates and curbing curtailment. The AfDB’s 2024 co-financing of the 100 MW Kairouan solar plant signals donor support for hybrid portfolios pairing renewables with flexible thermal assets. The World Bank’s 2025 TEREG program channels USD 430 million into 2.8 GW of solar-and-wind capacity while conditioning disbursements on storage and grid-flexibility investments, underscoring the interdependence between renewables and gas back-up. Algeria’s gas-supply uncertainty amplifies the need for efficient turbines, yet continued reliance on imports heightens fuel-price exposure. Without these gas upgrades, renewable penetration beyond 35% would jeopardize grid stability in the Tunisia power market.

Renewable-Energy Auctions (1 GW 2024-2026 Pipeline)

A 1.7 GW tender series placed Tunisia among North Africa’s most competitive auction venues. In December 2024, Qair, Scatec, and Voltalia secured 498 MW at tariffs near USD 0.031 /kWh, reflecting global PV module deflation and intense bidding. A 500 MW solar round advanced in March 2025, selecting four firms at comparable prices. Scatec’s 120 MW Sidi Bouzid II project reached a 25-year PPA in 2025, with EUR 87 million capex financed on a 50-50 basis with Toyota Tsusho’s Aeolus unit. Local-content thresholds of 30-40% postpone financial close by up to nine months, pushing developers to source mounting structures and inverters domestically. Despite compressed margins, auction cadence must accelerate because currently contracted volumes cover only 14% of the 2030 renewable target in the Tunisia power market.

Rising Sovereign-Risk Premium on IPP Finance

Credit ratings of B- (Fitch) and CCC+ (S&P) impose 300-400 bp financing spreads over investment-grade markets, shrinking developer returns. IMF subsidy-reform stalemates stall sovereign backstops, and STEG’s arrears exceed USD 1 billion annually, elevating offtaker risk. EBRD’s EUR 300 million loan delivered emergency liquidity, but the utility’s deficit persists. Consequently, developers demand sovereign guarantees or partial-risk insurance, delaying financial close and slowing renewable build-out in the Tunisia power market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Grid Modernization Loans from AfDB & KfW
• Regional Interconnector with Italy (ELMED)
• Aged Thermal Fleet > 25 Years - Efficiency Drag

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Thermal units commanded 84.25% of the Tunisia power market share in 2025, reaffirming the centrality of gas-fired output in meeting peak demand. Renewables, anchored by solar PV and coastal wind farms, are advancing at a 24.6% CAGR, propelling the Tunisia power market size for clean electricity to an anticipated 4.85 GW by 2031. Steady module price declines and concessionary World Bank funding underpin tariff bids below USD 0.032 /kWh. Smart-grid pilots will enable flexible loads to align with solar peaks, while the 400-600 MW pumped-hydro project offers swing capacity to prevent curtailment. Yet a euro-denominated debt burden from ELMED and gas-import volatility sustains thermal lock-in.

In parallel, ACWA Power’s green-hydrogen roadmap envisions 12 GW of renewable capacity feeding electrolyzers, which could triple domestic renewable build-rates if wheeling reforms emerge. Until then, STEG continues life-extension overhauls of Rades and Sousse turbines to hedge against renewable intermittency. Hydro and biomass remain peripheral, and no nuclear program is planned. Overall, rising renewable output narrows the fossil share but leaves gas-fired flexibility indispensable to the Tunisia power market.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Power Source
  • Thermal (Coal, Natural Gas, Oil and Diesel)
  • Nuclear
  • Renewables (Solar, Wind, Hydro, Geothermal, Biomass & Waste, Tidal)
• By End User
  • Utilities
  • Commercial and Industrial
  • Residential
• By T&D Voltage Level (Qualitative Analysis only)
  • High-Voltage Transmission (Above 230 kV)
  • Sub-Transmission (69 to 161 kV)
  • Medium-Voltage Distribution (13.2 to 34.5 kV)
  • Low-Voltage Distribution (Up to 1 kV)

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Tunisian Company of Electricity & Gas (STEG)
• Carthage Power Company
• Ansaldo Energia SpA
• General Electric Company
• Siemens Energy AG
• Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy
• Vestas Wind Systems A/S
• Nur Energie Ltd
• Seeraj Energy
• ACWA Power
• Enel Green Power SpA
• TotalEnergies SE
• ENGIE SA
• ABB Ltd
• Schneider Electric SE
• Elsewedy Electric Co
• Huawei Digital Power
• JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
• Trina Solar Co Ltd
• Scatec ASA

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support