Mexico Oil and Gas Downstream - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

Mexico oil and gas downstream market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 1.24 billion, growing from 2025 value of USD 1.21 billion with 2031 projections showing USD 1.38 billion, growing at 2.19% CAGR over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Type (Refineries and Petrochemicals Plants), Product Type (Refined Petroleum Products, Petrochemicals, and Lubricants), and Distribution Channel (Direct Sales/Wholesale, Distributors/Commercial, and Retail). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Mexico Oil And Gas Downstream Market Trends and Insights

Government refinery-upgrade program bolstering utilization rates

Processing volumes across PEMEX’s six refineries climbed from 511 kb/d in 2018 to 1.23 MMb/d by early 2024 after successive rehabilitation outlays and Deer Park’s integration. The National Refining System is budgeted MX$136 billion through 2030 to replace critical units, debottleneck coking trains, and raise power reliability. While these efforts underpin the Mexican oil and gas downstream market, actual utilization still lingers below 60% because recurring maintenance backlogs outpace annual capital expenditure (capex) allocations. Dos Bocas reached only 115 kb/d throughput - 34% of its design capacity - by May 2025, reflecting the absence of cogeneration and gas interconnects. The 2025-2035 roadmap now prioritizes debt reduction to unlock cash flow for turnarounds, a move expected to lift the Mexico oil and gas downstream market in the medium term.

Commissioning of Dos Bocas refinery adding 340 kbd new capacity

Dos Bocas is the country’s largest downstream investment in decades, designed for 340,000 barrels per day of heavy-crude runs that could trim Mexico’s gasoline and diesel import dependence by 30%. Operational reality diverged from design: the plant reached only 115 kbd - 34% of its nameplate capacity - by May 2025 because the cogeneration island and natural-gas interconnects were not yet finished. Its location in Tabasco provides direct access to Maya crude from Cantarell and Ku-Maloob-Zaap, reducing haulage costs compared to imported light blends. Even at reduced throughput, Dos Bocas has proven it can yield gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil that previously required costly imports. Once the cogeneration unit, sulfur-recovery trains, and tank-farm tie-ins are completed, the refinery is expected to increase national processing capacity beyond 1.5 MMb/d, thereby reinforcing the Mexican oil and gas downstream market. Continuous monitoring through SEMARNAT’s environmental framework ensures emissions control and wastewater handling, aligning with federal energy sovereignty goals.

Chronic maintenance backlogs keeping utilization below 60%

Supplier arrears topping MX$430 billion have led key contractors to idle rigs and curtail works, a scenario that translates into fewer spare parts and delayed turnarounds across the Mexico oil and gas downstream market. The Cadereyta refinery is scheduled to face 2025 environmental hearings that could restrict throughput until emission controls are improved. Pemex secured a USD 10 billion liability management package but still requires additional funding to cover pipeline inspections, storage roof repairs, and delayed coker upgrades. The new “Oil Rights for Well-Being” fiscal scheme promises lighter royalty loads; however, the timing of its execution remains uncertain. Until full funding is secured, operational rates remain subdued.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Rising gasoline & diesel consumption from an expanding vehicle fleet
• Near-shoring-led petrochemical demand boom in northern clusters
• Policy volatility and frequent contract reviews deterring FDI

Segment Analysis

Refineries accounted for 64.10% of Mexico's oil and gas downstream market in 2025, a dominance amplified by the Deer Park acquisition and the start-up of Dos Bocas. Despite the increase, refinery utilization lags behind design capacity because maintenance scheduling cannot keep pace with component failures. The Mexico oil and gas downstream market size attributed to refineries is expected to increase, as MXD 136 billion in federal funds is allocated to desulfurization, power generation, and dock expansion.

Petrochemical plants, in contrast, are expected to log a 4.03% CAGR to 2031, the fastest within the Mexican oil and gas downstream market. The Pacifico Mexinol project and Braskem Idesa's ethane terminal open additional capacity that meets near-shoring-driven demand, positioning northern clusters as major consumers. Sustained feedstock contracts and private-sector operational discipline underpin the petrochemical trajectory.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Type
  • Refineries
  • Petrochemical Plants
• By Product Type
  • Refined Petroleum Products
  • Petrochemicals
  • Lubricants
• By Distribution Channel
  • Direct Sales/Wholesale
  • Distributors/Commercial
  • Retail

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex)
• Braskem Idesa
• IEnova (Sempra Infraestructura)
• Shell México
• TotalEnergies México
• Valero Energy México
• ExxonMobil México
• BP México
• Chevron México
• Repsol México
• Trafigura México
• Koch Industries (Flint Hills Resources)
• Grupo IDESA
• Samsung Engineering
• Fluor Corporation
• KBR Inc.
• Wood Group
• ICA Fluor
• Techint Ingeniería y Construcción
• Dragados Offshore

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support