The green petroleum coke and calcined petroleum coke market is projected to register a CAGR of less than 6% during the forecast period (2021-2026).
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on economic activity; a deep and potentially extended recession appears to be a foregone conclusion. The market is significantly impacted by the slowdown in industrial activities due to lockdown and curfew situations across the world. Global aluminum demand has already been slashed, with the automotive and aerospace industries bearing the brunt of the fallout, thus, decreasing the demand for green petroleum coke and calcined petroleum coke. With the decrease in oil and gas revenues, the number of key producers is expected to fall by 50%-85% in 2020 compared to 2019, according to the International Energy Agency, though the losses could be greater depending on future market developments.
However, countries like China recovered from COVID-19, and they have become the world's largest producer and importer of primary metal this year. According to the International Aluminum Institute, annualized run-rates surpassed 39.0 million metric ton for the first time ever in November 2020. Owing to all these factors, COVID-19 negatively impacted the market and is likely to recover during the forecast period.
- In the medium term, the major factor driving the market is increasing aluminum production for industrial activities.
- On the flip side, the outbreak of COVID-19 is likely to hinder the growth of the market studied.
- Asia-Pacific dominated the market across the world, with robust demand from various applications, such as fuel, aluminum, iron and steel, and silicon metal, among others in numerous industries.
Key Market Trends
Aluminum Segment to Drive the Market Growth
- The global demand for primary aluminum is being fueled by the increasing focus on lightweight construction in the automotive industry coupled with the booming aerospace industry.
- In 2020, the global aluminum output increased by 2.5% to a record 65.3 million metric ton, with producers increasing run-rates as the price of aluminum recovered from its March lows.
- The increasing pressure to utilize lightweight materials in order to protect the environment is expected to drive the growth of aluminum in the automotive sector.
- However, the COVID-19 pandemic created a decline in the automobile industry, thus, affecting the market studied. According to the OICA (International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers), the global production of vehicles in 2020 was around 77.6 million, a significant decrease compared to the production in 2019, which is around 92.1 million. This condition is likely to recover gradually in 2021, and it is likely to improve during the forecast period.
- Moreover, growing construction activities in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in ASEAN countries, increased adoption of new technology, and innovative construction procedures are some of the factors driving the growth of the market studied.
- In the light of megatrends, such as electro-mobility and additive manufacturing, new applications involving aluminum materials are increasingly used at a higher pace.
- Although aluminum is facing strong competition from other materials, such as plastic composites, yet its growth areas are expected to remain larger in comparison to its substitute areas.
- The increasing focus toward energy-saving cars and aluminum’s excellent reusability, which allows the energy invested in its production to be entirely reclaimed, is expected to increase aluminum consumption in the coming years.
China to Dominate the Asia-Pacific Market
- Globally, China and India are major consumers of petroleum coke. China produces in excess of ~30 million metric ton of petroleum coke annually. Moreover, China is the biggest producer of anode-grade coke, with state-owned refiner Sinopec alone having about 22 million metric ton per year of green coke capacity, currently operating at around 60% of this capacity.
- Due to strict environmental norms, the consumption of fuel-grade coke decreased reasonably. Initially, China amended its own standards to allow petcoke with 3-5% sulfur into the system for anode-grade coke. However, the country adapted to the recognized industry standard of 3% sulfur as the cut-off point. The country is finding it more challenging to source CPC due to low supply and high demand for low-sulfur coke from Chinese smelters.
- The US petcoke was previously subject to Chinese tariffs as part of the trade dispute between the United States and China, which included a 25% tariff on thermal and metallurgical coal, as well as fuel-grade and calcined petroleum coke (CPC). Post March-2020, China exempted US-origin petcoke from a 25% import tariff.
- China continues to be the primary driver of growth in the aluminum industry, and e-mobility is a major factor.
- China is the global leader in the electric car market. The Chinese government is providing strong financial and non-financial incentives to boost electric car sales. In April 2020, the Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China had issued a notice on ways to promote financial subsidies for new electric vehicles. It stated that new EVs purchased between January 1, 2021, and December 31, 2022 would be exempted from vehicle purchase tax.
- New applications are coming up, such as pedestrian bridges, aluminum formwork, and aluminum furniture, which are also likely to be an additional source of aluminum consumption growth, which, in turn, will aid in driving the petroleum coke market through the forecast period.
- In response to rising local prices, China's massive aluminum smelting sector increased annualized production by 1.8 million metric ton in the second half of 2020.
- The demand is likely to recover during 2021 as well, as economic performance and demand are likely to recover by the post-COVID-19 pandemic in the country.
The green petroleum coke and calcined petroleum coke market is partially consolidated, with the top five players accounting for a significant share of the market. Some of the major players in the market include Oxbow Corporation, Rain Carbon Inc., bp America, Phillips 66 Company, and Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba), among others.
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1.1 Study Assumptions
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 MARKET DYNAMICS
4.1.1 Increasing Demand from Aluminum Application
4.1.2 Other Drivers
4.2.1 Impact of COVID-19 on Industrial Activities
4.2.2 Other Restraints
4.3 Industry Value-chain Analysis
4.4 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
4.4.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.4.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
4.4.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.4.4 Threat of Substitute Products and Services
4.4.5 Degree of Competition
5 MARKET SEGMENTATION
5.1.1 Fuel Grade
5.1.2 Calcined Coke
5.2.1 Green Petroleum Coke
22.214.171.124 Iron and steel
126.96.36.199 Silicon Metal
188.8.131.52 Others (Bricks, Glass, Carbon Products, etc)
5.2.2 Calcined Petroleum Coke
184.108.40.206 Titanium dioxide
220.127.116.11 Re-carburizing Market
18.104.22.168 Others (Needle Coke, Carbon Products, etc)
22.214.171.124 South Korea
126.96.36.199 ASEAN Countries
188.8.131.52 Rest of Asia-Pacific
5.3.2 North America
184.108.40.206 United States
220.127.116.11 United Kingdom
18.104.22.168 Rest of Europe
5.3.4 South America
22.214.171.124 Rest of South America
5.3.5 Middle-East and Africa
126.96.36.199 Saudi Arabia
188.8.131.52 South Africa
184.108.40.206 Rest of Middle-East and Africa
6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
6.1 Mergers & Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations and Agreements
6.2 Market Share (%)**/Ranking Analysis
6.3 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
6.4 Company Profiles
6.4.1 Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba)
6.4.2 BP plc
6.4.3 CNOOC Limited
6.4.4 ELSID S.A.
6.4.7 Phillips 66 Company
6.4.8 Rain Carbon Inc.
6.4.9 Rio Tinto
6.4.10 Oxbow Corporation
6.4.11 Zhenjiang Coking And Gas Group Co., Ltd.
7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes:
- Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba)
- BP plc
- CNOOC Limited
- ELSID S.A.
- Phillips 66 Company
- Rain Carbon Inc.
- Rio Tinto
- Oxbow Corporation
- Zhenjiang Coking And Gas Group Co., Ltd.