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Growth Opportunities in Distributed Energy, Forecast to 2030

  • ID: 5027921
  • Report
  • May 2020
  • Region: Global
  • 113 Pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
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Investments into distributed energy resources (DER) technologies reached $53.14 billion in 2019. Total capacity commissioned was 51.04 GW, meaning the total global installed capacity for DER increased by 10% in the year to 528.93 GW. Strong growth is expected for the global market across the decade as a whole. About $846.12 billion is forecast to be invested in new DER capacity over the next decade (2020–2030). The investment will be driven by a combination of favourable regulations, declining project and technology costs, high electricity and demand charges, availability of funding, and new financing models that offset initial investment barriers. Solar PV will dominate global investment throughout the decade, accounting for 88.2% of the funding. Of this, residential solar PV will account for 49.3% of the total investments, and commercial and industrial (C&I) solar PV the remaining 38.9%. By the end of the next decade, Asia will account for approximately 48% of the total investment, followed by North America (approximately 17.5% share) and Europe (approximately 16%). Total distributed generation (DG) installed capacity is projected to reach 1182.00 GW by 2030, accounting for 10% of the global installed power generation in the year.

The DER model will play an increasingly pivotal role in the global power mix, as part of a wider drive to decarbonise the sector. The publisher firmly believes that participants in the power generation market must consider the impact of DER and should adapt accordingly.

Behind-the-meter energy storage is set to become a game-changer for DER as it enhances its value proposition and enables revenue stacking. The cost of the energy storage system is forecast to decline by 35% over the course of the decade, making it an increasingly attractive proposition. New solar PV customers will opt for a solar + storage system as standard and existing customers will increasingly look to add a storage system to their existing solar PV DER units.

Prosumers will continue to invest in DER projects to mitigate energy cost uncertainty and avoid increases in demand charges. They will also increasingly benefit from selling electricity back to the grid and from participating in the wholesale electricity, capacity and ancillary service markets.

The transition from a pure pay-and-purchase model to operation and output based OPEX contracts that include maintenance, performance guarantees, and availability of the installed equipment will increasingly be preferred by residential and C&I consumers.

Security of supply will become a key factor for investing in DERs, as major climate incidents increase. DERs that can operate in microgrid mode will bring increased resiliency to local grids.

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Executive Summary

  • Key Findings
  • Top Predictions for the Decade Ahead
  • Impact of COVID-19
  • DER and its Role in the Internet of Energy
  • Key Growth Opportunities for Market Participants
  • Key Regional Growth Opportunities
  • Global Distributed Energy - Annual Capacity Installation Forecast
  • Global Distributed Energy - Annual Investment Forecast
  • Global Distributed Energy Forecast

Research Scope and Segmentation

  • Research Scope
  • Market Definitions
  • Geographic Segmentation

Key Global Distributed Energy Trends

  • Key DER Market Trends
  • Storage as a Key Enabler for Renewable DERs
  • DER Aggregation - New Revenue Streams from the Provision of Grid Services
  • Blockchain will Bring Flexibility to DER Transactions
  • XaaS is Shaping and Driving the Deployment of DERs
  • Growth in Microgrids
  • Energy Supply and Demand Services

Drivers and Restraints

  • Market Drivers
  • Drivers Explained
  • Market Restraints
  • Restraints Explained

Technology Analysis

  • Technology Analysis - Overview
  • Technology Analysis - Distributed Solar PV
  • Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Distributed Solar PV Investment Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Technology Analysis - Diesel Gensets
  • Diesel Gensets Installed Capacity Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Diesel Gensets Investment Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Technology Analysis - Gas Gensets
  • Gas Gensets Installed Capacity Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Gas Gensets Investment Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Technology Analysis - Industrial Turbines (<30MW)
  • Industrial Turbines Installed Capacity Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Industrial Turbines Investment Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Technology Analysis - Distributed Wind
  • Distributed Wind Installed Capacity Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Distributed Wind Investment Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Technology Analysis - Small Hydro Power
  • Small Hydro Installed Capacity Forecast - The Decade Ahead
  • Small Hydro Investment Forecast - The Decade Ahead

Regional Analysis

  • Regional Analysis - DER Investment Growth
  • North America - Regional Overview
  • North America - Capex by Technology
  • North America - Annual Capacity Additions by Technology
  • North America - Country Highlights
  • Europe - Regional Overview
  • Europe - Capex by Technology
  • Europe - Annual Capacity Additions by Technology
  • Europe - Country Highlights
  • Asia - Regional Overview
  • Asia - Capex by Technology
  • Asia - Annual Capacity Additions by Technology
  • Asia - Country Highlights
  • Latin America - Regional Overview
  • Latin America - Capex by Technology
  • Latin America - Annual Capacity Additions by Technology
  • Latin America - Country Highlights
  • Africa and Middle East - Regional Overview
  • Africa and Middle East - Capex by Technology
  • Africa and Middle East - Annual Capacity Additions by Technology
  • Africa and Middle East - Country Highlights

Market Ecosystem Analysis

  • DER Market Ecosystem
  • DER Market Participants and Strategic Focus - Traditional Energy Participants
  • DER Market Participants and Strategic Focus - Newer Participants

Implications, Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action

  • Key Growth Opportunities for Market Participants
  • Growth Opportunity 1 - Risk-Gain Share Models and M&A: New Opportunities for Technology OEMs
  • Companies to Action - Case Study
  • Growth Opportunity 2 - Expanding Current Solution Offering: New Opportunities for System Integrators & Installers
  • Companies to Action - Case Study
  • Growth Opportunity 3 - Consumer to Prosumer: New Opportunities for End Users
  • Companies to Action - Case Study
  • Growth Opportunity 4 - Market Entry to DER: New Opportunities for Utilities
  • Companies to Action - Case Study
  • Growth Opportunity 5 - Expanding Solution Offering: New Opportunities for ESCOs
  • Companies to Action - Case Study
  • Strategic Imperatives for Distributed Energy

Key Conclusions

  • Legal Disclaimer

Appendix

  • List of Exhibits

The Publisher's Story

  • Value Proposition - Future of Your Company & Career
  • Global Perspective
  • Industry Convergence
  • 360º Research Perspective
  • Implementation Excellence
  • Blue Ocean Strategy
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