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COVID-19 Growth Impact Assessment for the Automotive Industry, 2020

  • Report

  • 81 Pages
  • May 2020
  • Region: Global
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 5027934

Stakeholders to Focus on Resource Optimization, New Growth Segments and Cost Rationalization to Overcome Slowdown

The mushrooming coronavirus outbreak in the central Chinese city of Wuhan prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a global health emergency in late January. The coronavirus outbreak isn’t just a massive health crisis; it’s an economic one as well. If the pandemic is not contained to a large extent by April, the drop in consumer demands and industrial production could potentially push the global economy into a recession in 2020.

The coronavirus outbreak has heavily impacted the manufacturing industry. OEMs and parts suppliers have yet to return to full production capacity. Consequent delays in delivery might impact the market at multiple levels from postponed new car model launches, shattered supply chains, financially drained SMEs, and dampened vehicle sales in Q1, 2020. The effects will spill over into Q2 as well, with unfulfilled order deliveries due to ongoing production slowdowns. This situation is set to exacerbate the numerous challenges already facing the auto industry, including tougher CO2 emissions standards and higher investments in new technologies. The study sheds light on the impact of the pandemic on the global light vehicle production of global OEMs across key regions such as NA, Europe, APAC, China and India in three different scenarios.

As the effects of the pandemic start to wane and the industry begins to recover, OEMs will explore various options to drawback consumers and offset the drop in sales. The study deals with the impact across different regions and the top global OEMs. OEM wise impact analysis across different regions based on sales and production dependency along with forecast in various post-COVID-19 scenarios have been covered in the study.

The study also covers the impact of the pandemic and new opportunities created on other mobility verticals such as shared mobility, electric vehicles, connectivity solutions, aftermarket, and vehicle leasing. The study highlights the unit shipments and growth rates across different verticals along with opportunity areas in each of these verticals. Personal mobility modes will make a strong comeback. The demand for micro-mobility solutions, in particular, will surge. Micro-mobility solutions are easy-to-use and ideal in congested city environments. In the current context of COVID-19, these single or double seaters, like mopeds and scooters, offer riders better control over their health & wellness. Automakers are likely, therefore, to explore the potential of this sector as they attempt to draw up blueprints for a post-corona virus scenario.

Companies are stepping up to the challenge created by the coronavirus outbreak. They are supporting governments in developing and supplying various health and wellness solutions, which has been covered in the study as well. This massive crisis is going to change the outlook for auto manufactures in the near future as the focus is likely to shift towards health and wellness solutions in vehicles.

The study includes a comprehensive scenario-based analysis centered on the current world scenario on key industries like Automotive across various markets to enable clients to survive the present to thrive in the future. At the same time, we recognize it is important for our followers to remain on top of their strategic initiatives.

Research Scope

The aim of this study is to assess the growth impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global automotive industry.

Strategic Imperatives:

The global COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recession like global economic slowdown has left governments and markets stumbling in directionless chaos and uncertainty.  In the midst of a lurking global recession catalyzed by the uncontrolled spread of the Coronavirus, companies, and leaders invariably fall short of prompt decision making subsequently missing out on potential opportunities during such times of great distress. Therefore a comprehensive scenario-based analysis was conducted, centered on the current world scenario on key industries like Automotive across various markets to enable clients to survive the present to thrive in the future.

Key Issues Addressed

  • How will the current market turmoil impact business planning?
  • What are the scenarios individual markets (Europe, North America, APAC, Middle East, and India) that I need to be cognizant of as realistic market change to strategy is made?
  • What are the best practices and recommendations for business survival?
  • Do growth opportunities still exist in the market and if so, what are they and how can my organization leverage them?           
  • What strategies are key market participants currently employing?


Table of Contents

1. Impact to Automotive Industry-Executive Summary
  • Global Annual Light Vehicle Production-2000 to 2025
  • Annual Light Vehicle Production & Sales Scenario-Definition
  • Covid-19 Outbreak-Impact on Top 13 Light Vehicle Markets (Severe Pandemic)
  • Top 10 Oem Groups-Dependency on Impacted Countries
  • Covid19 Outbreak-A Snapshot on Oem Risk Mitigation Strategies
  • Covid-19 Outbreak-OEM Promotional Campaigns to Take Centre Stage
  • Key Challenges Faced by the Automotive Industry Due to Covid-19 Outbreak
  • Mortality Matrix-Automotive Industry Vertical Impact Recovery Matrix
  • Key Automotive Indicators-Pre-COVID Vs. During - COVID Analysis
  • Impact of COVID-19 on Start-Up Companies
  • Key Risk Mitigation Strategies for OEMs and Dealers-Timeline
  • Government Support for the Revival of the Auto Industry

2. Research Scope and Segmentation
  • Research Scope
  • Vehicle Segmentation

3. Changing Business & Economic Scenario
  • World GDP Growth to Plunge to (1.1%) Under Severe Pandemic Scenario
  • World GDP-Quarter by Quarter Analysis
  • Regional GDP-Quarter by Quarter Impact Analysis for Key Regions
  • Crude Oil Forecast-Quarter by Quarter (Prices to Slide $34.8 or Less)
  • List of Countries Affected by COVID-19-Classified by Severity
  • Countrywise Government Response to Covid-19
  • Economic Stimulus Measures by Country-Revenue Grant
  • Covid-19 Impact on Industries-Struggling, Surviving, and Thriving
  • Forces Shaping Automotive Business Ecosystem

4. Impact Analysis on Global Light Vehicle Production
  • 2020 Global Light Vehicle Production Month Wise Forecast
  • 2020 Global Light Vehicle Production Quarter Wise Prediction
  • Key Oem Risk Mitigation Strategies by Region
  • 2020 Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast by Country
  • The Three Scenarios-Production Forecast for America
  • The Three Scenarios-Production Forecast for Europe
  • The Three Scenarios-Production Forecast for Apac
  • The Three Scenarios-Production Forecast for China
  • The Three Scenarios-Production Forecast for India

5. Impact Analysis of Vehicle Manufacturers
  • Global Vehicle Manufacturer Valuations-Share Price Heading South
  • Pre-COVID-19 Outbreak-Oems Regional Vehicle Production Distribution
  • Top 10 Oem Groups-Sales Impact Analysis
  • Rise in Global Vehicle Manufacturer Liabilities
  • Global Vehicle Manufacturer Shift Focus Towards Medical Supplies
  • Global Vehicle Manufacturer COVID Impact Assessment

6. Identifying Growth Opportunities by Automotive Verticals
  • Analyzing Impact and Identifying Growth Opportunities by Mobility Verticals
  • Impact of the Covid-19 Outbreak on the Global Shared Mobility Market
  • Impact of the Covid-19 Outbreak on Global Vehicle Connectivity Services
  • Impact of the Covid-19 Outbreak on the Global Aftermarket
  • Impact of the Covid-19 Outbreak on the Global New Vehicle Leasing Market
  • Impact of the Covid-19 Outbreak on the Global Electric Vehicle Market

7. Identifying Growth Opportunities in Electric Vehicles
  • Global Electric Vehicle Sales by Month-January 2017 to December 2021
  • 2020 Global Electric Vehicle Sales-Month Wise Forecast
  • Covid-19 Impact Analysis on Electric Vehicle Sales by Region
  • Global Electric Vehicle Model Availability by Vehicle Segments-2019 and 2025
  • Impact of the Covid-19 Outbreak on Electric Vehicle Model Launches
  • Impact of the Covid-19 Outbreak on Ev Charging Station Installations

8. Growth Opportunities
  • Opportunity 1-Aftermarket
  • Opportunity 2-Connectivity
  • Opportunity 3-Leasing and Rental
  • Opportunity 4-Digital Retailing
  • Opportunity 5-Shared Mobility

9. Key Takeaways-Risk Mitigation Strategies on Road to Recovery
  • Macro to Micro Analysis & Risk Mitigation Strategies for OEMs
  • Risk Mitigation Strategies for OEMs
  • Macro to Micro Analysis & Risk Mitigation Strategies for Dealers
  • Risk Mitigation Strategies for Dealers

10. Next Steps
  • Legal Disclaimer

  • OEMs’ EV Sales Footprint in the U.S.