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Global Future Risks - Future-proofing your Strategies, 2030

  • ID: 5028301
  • Report
  • April 2020
  • Region: Global
  • 113 Pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
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An Assessment of the Top 21 Risks that Threaten the Next Decade

Our world is evolving rapidly, and so are risks. Rapid innovation, growing political tensions, climate change and the unexpected rise of infectious diseases have made it increasingly complex to anticipate, assess, or mitigate risks.

Risks are now increasingly interconnected, which if amplified can trigger a ripple effect across industries, regions, and diverse stakeholder groups. Therefore, mitigating them will involve the adoption of a cohesive, interdisciplinary, and multipronged approach. Policymakers, businesses, and individuals are constantly challenged, often due to their unpreparedness, to assess the impact and to identify growth opportunities emerging from these risks.

The global future risks report provides a compelling analysis that will not only help stakeholders understand the impact of future risks but also equip them to act on clear growth opportunities. The risks discussed in this study were determined by our global team of futurists, consultants, and analysts, with consultation from thought leaders throughout the company. As such, they encompass a broad spectrum of risks, reveal future impacts around the world, and outline growth opportunities for risk mitigation.

Our rigorous research process involves the collation of an exhaustive list of global risks for the short, medium and long terms. These have then been filtered to identify the top 21 risks affecting 4 key spectrums: global stability, ecological balance, human productivity, and technological advancement.

At the risk impact assessment level, the study analyzes key indicators, drivers and trigger points that influence the risk and outlines their impact through the short, medium and long terms. The study also provides a risk scenario assessment wherein both negative and positive outcomes are discussed for two scenarios: risk mitigated versus risk amplified. New growth opportunities that correspond to the risk have been identified as per projected impact and certainty. The study also provides an insight into the next strategic action companies must take to mitigate these risks and leverage growth opportunities.

The short, medium and long-term risks are identified as follows:

Short-term Risks: A hyperconnected world will expose governments, organizations, and individuals to privacy, disinformation and cybersecurity threats. Two-thirds of the world will live in water-stressed conditions and natural disasters will erode ecological balance. Infectious diseases such, as the ongoing Coronavirus outbreak will trigger global health and economic concerns. International trade disputes, rising protectionism, political upheavals, and national withdrawals (e.g., Brexit) could severely affect global economic activity.

Medium-term risks: About 60% of the world’s population will live in cities by 2025, leading to infrastructure stress and a shortage of productive employment opportunities. The lack of basic amenities and low agricultural output could lead to resource nexus. Human productivity will be affected by a rapidly aging population. Dietary imbalances and undernourishment will result in obesity and malnutrition. Climate change will cause the global temperature to rise by 1.5°C if carbon emissions are not curtailed.

Long-term risks: AI and automation could together replace 20 million jobs by 2030. Rapid advances in AI could put critical national infrastructure at risk and potentially lead to a state of cyber warfare. An unethical and unregulated digital environment could pose serious threats to personal and organizational privacy and national security. An increasingly squeezed middle class will result in a global state of wealth inequality. A national identity crisis could result in geopolitical conflicts, marginalization, and terrorism.

The complete list of risks is given below.

Short-term Risks:

  • Privacy & disinformation
  • Cyber risks
  • Neo-nationalism and political upheaval
  • Water crisis
  • Rise of infectious diseases
  • Global economic slowdown
  • Natural disasters

Medium-term Risks:

  • Urbanization risks
  • Obesity & lifestyle risks
  • Future of mental wellbeing
  • Climate change
  • Resource nexus
  • Aging and at-risk population
  • Malnutrition and health risks

Long-term Risks:

  • AI as a Threat
  • Future of neural interfaces and invasive technologies
  • Future of digital regulatory uncertainty
  • National identity crisis
  • Shifting global alliances
  • Future of wealth inequities
  • Threats to the future of work

The study presents more than 80 growth opportunities arising from these 21 risks, which will help policymakers, companies, and individuals take immediate, tactical, and strategic actions and draw plans to mitigate risks.

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1. Executive Summary

  • Key Findings
  • Our Global Future Risk Universe
  • Introduction
  • Introduction-How to Read this Study
  • Our Four Pillars of Risk Assessment-An Overview
  • Our Four Pillars of Risk Assessment

2. Key Global Short-term Risks-Risk Profiles

  • Risk 1-Privacy & Disinformation Risks: An Overview
  • Risk 1-Privacy & Disinformation Risks: Levers
  • Risk 1-Privacy & Disinformation Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 1-Privacy & Disinformation Risks: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 2-Cyber Risks: An Overview
  • Risk 2-Cyber Risks: Levers
  • Risk 2-Cyber Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 2-Cyber Risks: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 3-Neo-nationalism and Political Upheaval: An Overview
  • Risk 3-Neo-nationalism and Political Upheaval: Levers
  • Risk 3-Neo-nationalism and Political Upheaval: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 3-Neo-nationalism and Political Upheaval: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 4-Water Crisis: An Overview
  • Risk 4-Water Crisis: Levers
  • Risk 4-Water Crisis: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 4-Water Crisis: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 5-Rise of Infectious Diseases: An Overview
  • Risk 5-Rise of Infectious Diseases: Levers
  • Risk 5-Rise of Infectious Diseases: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 5-Rise of Infectious Diseases: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 6-Global Economic Slowdown: An Overview
  • Risk 6-Global Economic Slowdown: Levers
  • Risk 6-Global Economic Slowdown: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 6-Global Economic Slowdown: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 7-Natural Disasters Risks: An Overview
  • Risk 7-Natural Disasters Risks: Levers
  • Risk 7-Natural Disasters Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 7-Natural Disasters Risks: Opportunity Analysis

3. Key Global Medium-term Risks-Risk Profiles

  • Risk 1-Urbanization: An Overview
  • Risk 1-Urbanization: Levers
  • Risk 1-Urbanization: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 1-Urbanization: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 2-Lifestyle and Obesity Risk: An Overview
  • Risk 2-Lifestyle and Obesity Risk: Levers
  • Risk 2-Lifestyle and Obesity Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 2-Lifestyle and Obesity Risk: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 3-Future of Mental Wellbeing: An Overview
  • Risk 3-Future of Mental Wellbeing: Levers
  • Risk 3-Future of Mental Wellbeing: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 3-Future of Mental Wellbeing: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 4-Climate Change Risks: An Overview
  • Risk 4-Climate Change Risks: Levers
  • Risk 4-Climate Change Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 4-Climate Change Risks: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 5-Resource Nexus: An Overview
  • Risk 5-Resource Nexus: Levers
  • Risk 5-Resource Nexus: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 5-Resource Nexus: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 6-Aging and At-Risk Population: An Overview
  • Risk 6-Aging and At-Risk Population: Levers
  • Risk 6-Aging and At-Risk Population: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 6-Aging and At-Risk Population: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 7-Malnutrition and Health Risks: An Overview
  • Risk 7-Malnutrition and Health Risks: Levers
  • Risk 7-Malnutrition and Health Risks: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 7-Malnutrition and Health Risks: Opportunity Analysis

4. Key Global Long-term Risks-Risk Profiles

  • Risk 1-AI as a Threat: An Overview
  • Risk 1-AI as a Threat: Levers
  • Risk 1-AI as a Threat: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 1-AI as a Threat: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 2-Future of Neural Interfaces and Invasive Technologies: An Overview
  • Risk 2-Future of Neural Interfaces and Invasive Technologies: Levers
  • Risk 2-Future of Neural Interfaces and Invasive Technologies: Scenarios
  • Risk 2-Future of Neural Interfaces and Invasive Technologies: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 3-Future of Digital Regulatory Uncertainty: An Overview
  • Risk 3-Future of Digital Regulatory Uncertainty: Levers
  • Risk 3-Future of Digital Regulatory Uncertainty: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 3-Future of Digital Regulatory Uncertainty: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 4-National Identity Crisis: An Overview
  • Risk 4-National Identity Crisis: Levers
  • Risk 4-National Identity Crisis: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 4-National Identity Crisis: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 5-Shifting Global Alliances (Post Western Order): An Overview
  • Risk 5-Shifting Global Alliances (Post Western Order): Levers
  • Risk 5-Shifting Global Alliances (Post Western Order): Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 5-Shifting Global Alliances (Post Western Order): Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 6-Future of Wealth Inequities: An Overview
  • Risk 6-Future of Wealth Inequities: Levers
  • Risk 6-Future of Wealth Inequities: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 6-Future of Wealth Inequities: Opportunity Analysis
  • Risk 7-Threats to the Future of Work: An Overview
  • Risk 7-Threats to the Future of Work: Levers
  • Risk 7-Threats to the Future of Work: Risk Scenario Assessment
  • Risk 7-Threats to the Future of Work: Opportunity Analysis

5. Conclusion

  • Conclusion-Strategic Action Mapping
  • The Last Word-Strategic Recommendations
  • Legal Disclaimer

Appendix

  • List of Exhibits
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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