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Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - May 2020

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  • 36 Pages
  • May 2020
  • Region: Global
  • GlobalData
  • ID: 5067845

The report provide forecast for peak-week and return-to-normal week that will help the reader plan in this uncertain time, and highlights important populations and regions most affected by the outbreak.

The report covers current epidemiology situation, forecast, and analysis of COVID-19 in May 2020, including forecast for key markets.The report will be updated on a monthly basis.

First reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, now more than 846,200 confirmed cases of COVID-19 are spread across 187 countries worldwide. The US and several countries in Europe such as Italy, Spain, and Belgium have continued to see a decrease in daily cases. Russia, Brazil, and Latin American countries are seeing increasing trends. India has also seen an increase in the number of new cases reported despite strict distancing measures taken early on.

Special populations analysis covered in the report include the following -
  • COVID-19 in children may result in systemic multisystem syndrome with severe outcomes.
  • Childhood routine vaccination rates drop during pandemic.
  • COVID-19’s impact in pregnant women unclear, though most cases are asymptomatic.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic could cause an increase in the prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
  • Complications of opioid addiction will be challenging for the management of disease during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Region focus analysis covered in the report include the following -
  • The UK is not expected to reach full recovery until mid-July at earliest.
  • A second surge in daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran is likely due to lifting restrictions too early.
  • Mainland China experienced another cluster, government response is swift.
  • Japan quickly stamped out the recent COVID-19 surge, but more surges are likely in the future.
  • US and EU markets recovery will be longer than Asian markets, and it will be difficult to detect surges

Data limitations -
  • Testing availability and criteria differ significantly among countries.
  • All countries’ reported confirmed cases underestimate the number of actual infected people.
  • Mortality reporting is not standardized.
  • Antibody testing has limitations in accuracy and usefulness.


  • The epidemiology report covers the following areas: current epidemiology situation and forecast, special populations most impacted by COVID-19, regional focus and analysis of COVID-19 impact, and data limitations.

Reasons to Buy

  • Obtain in-depth understanding of epidemiology data for COVID-19 and analysis of up-to-date new research and insights.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
  • Contents

1 Current Epidemiology Situation
1.1 Current Epidemiology Situation
1.2 New Cases Trend in Top 10 Infected Countries
2 Forecast for Key Markets
2.1 Infection Peak and Decline Forecasts for Select Countries
2.2 Epidemic Curves and Projections for Select Countries
3 Special Populations
3.1 COVID-19 in Children May Result in Systemic Multisystem Syndrome with Severe Outcomes
3.2 Childhood Routine Vaccination Rates Drop During Pandemic
3.3 COVID-19 Impact on Pregnant Women Unclear
3.4 COVID-19 Pandemic Could Cause an Increase in Prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder
3.5 Complications of Opioid Addiction Will Be Challenging for Management of Disease During COVID-19 Pandemic
4 Region Focus
4.1 UK Not Expected to Reach Full Recovery Until Mid-July at Earliest
4.2 Second Surge in Daily Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Iran Is Likely Due to Lifting Restrictions Too Early
4.3 Mainland China Experienced Another Cluster, Northern China in Lockdown Again
4.4 Japan Quickly Stamped Out the Recent COVID-19 Surge, but More Surges Are Likely in the Future
4.5 Resurgences in US and Europe Will Look Different from Asian Markets and Will Be Harder to Detect
5. Data limitations
5.1 Drawbacks to Available Data
6 Appendix
6.1 Methodology
6.2 Abbreviations
6.3 Related Reports
6.4 Sources
6.5 About the Authors
6.6 About the Publisher
6.7 Contact Us
List of Tables
Table 1. Current Epidemiology Situation
Table 2. Top 10 Infected Countries
Table 3. Estimated Peak Weeks and Decline to Zero New Cases Weeks for Top Infected Countries (Excluding China)?
List of Figures
Figure 1. Projections of Daily New Confirmed Cases for Select Countries, Since 100th Confirmed Case?
Figure 2. US Age-Specific Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (N), All Ages, Men and Women, May 2020
Figure 3. Michigan, US Childhood Vaccination Rates (%), Ages 5 Months, Boys and Girls, 2016-2020
Figure 4. 16MM, Women in Third Trimester Pregnancies (N), Ages 15-44 Years, 2020
Figure 5. 7MM, PTSD 12-Month Total Prevalence (Pre-Pandemic) (%), Ages =18 Years, Men and Women, 2018
Figure 6. US, Australia, Germany, 12-Month Total Prevalence of OUD (Pre-Pandemic) (%), Ages =18 Years, Men and Women, 2018
Figure 7. UK, Modeled Forecast of COVID-19 Trajectory of New Cases
Figure 8. Iran, New Cases of COVID-19 Feb 27, 2020 - May 27, 2020
Figure 9. Mainland China, New Cases of COVID-19 Apr 25, 2020 - May 27, 2020
Figure 10. Japan, Modeled Forecast of COVID-19 Trajectory of New Cases
Figure 11. Mainland China and Japan, COVID-19 Daily New Cases (N) in Past Month
Figure 12. US and UK, COVID-19 Daily New Cases (N) in Past Month