+353-1-416-8900REST OF WORLD
+44-20-3973-8888REST OF WORLD
1-917-300-0470EAST COAST U.S
1-800-526-8630U.S. (TOLL FREE)

Sub-Saharan Africa Power Sector:Market Forecast (2019 –2028)

  • PDF Icon


  • 116 Pages
  • November 2019
  • Region: Africa
  • Northeast Group, LLC
  • ID: 5117899

Economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa is inextricably tied to the growth of its power sector. There are still 600 million people in the continent without access to electricity and therefore unable to contribute to or benefit from the expected gains of the next decade. Meanwhile, the billions of dollars of investment needed to reach these customers will provide an added boon to local economies and the modern infrastructure they provide will help the economies diversify. While the majority of the expected $141bn in investment over the next ten years will come from large-scale generation, there will also be leapfrogging opportunities with micro grids, modern transmission and distribution grids, advanced metering, and additional smart grid infrastructure. If successful Africa’s power sector investment plans will be a direct source of economic development and an enabler of future growth.

Yet, while projections remain strong, a number of challenges could thwart these ambitious plans. Most notably, the utilities that will largely be responsible for carrying out power sector investment are almost universally in financial ruin, dependent on multilateral aid and high-interest debt to carry out their investments. While foreign assistance may help cover the upfront costs of generation, most utilities are currently not in a position to maintain these investments and sustain growth. One of the keys to financial sustainability is efficient and modern metering – the cash register of the power sector. Many African utilities are under-metered and suffer high T&D and collection loss rates. Investment in prepaid – and especially AMI – meters will be critical to sustaining revenues. Smart grid infrastructure will be critical to sustaining Sub- Saharan Africa’s rapid growth.

Key questions answered in this study:

  • How large will the power sector market be across Sub-Saharan Africa?
  • What factors will drive investment in power generation, T&D, and metering?
  • Which African countries are implementing prepaid and advanced metering projects?
  • What major international and local vendors are best positioned to supply the region?

Table of Contents

i. Executive summary
1. What’s new in 2019
2. Market forecast
3. South Africa
4. Nigeria
5. Kenya
6. Ghana
7. Ethiopia
8. Tanzania
9. Mozambique
10. Côte d’Ivoire
11. Angola
12. Senegal
13. Uganda
14. Cameroon
15. Zambia
16. Rwanda
17. Botswana
18. Namibia
19. Other countries
20. Vendor activity
21. Appendix

List of Tables and Figures
Sub-Saharan Africa power sector: Key takeaways
Figure 1.1: Electrification growth in sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 1.2: Forecast growth in electricity generation (2019 – 2028)
Figure 1.3: Multilateral electrification goals
Figure 1.4: Off-grid power will help drive smart infrastructure investment
Figure 1.5: Urbanization and rural electrification rates
Table 1.1: Off-grid power initiatives in Africa
Figure 1.6: Sub-Saharan Africa mini-grid pipeline
Figure 1.7: Interest coverage ratio of African utilities
Figure 1.8: Debt-to-equity ratio of African utilities
Figure 1.9: Tariffs compared to cost-reflective pricing
Figure 1.10: T&D losses in Africa
Figure 1.11: Prepaid meter penetration rates in Africa
Figure 1.12: Countries with largest planned/contracted AMI deployment
Table 1.2: Recent AMI and prepaid metering activity in Africa
Figure 1.13: Losses and metering rates at Nigerian utilities
Figure 1.14: Chinese metering vendors in Africa
Figure 2.1: Annual power sector investment in Africa
Table 2.1: Annual power sector investment in Africa
Figure 2.2: Cumulative generation capacity in Africa
Figure 2.3: Annual generation investment in Africa
Figure 2.4: Cumulative T&D investment in Africa
Figure 2.5: Annual T&D investment in Africa
Figure 2.6: Cumulative metering investment in Africa
Table 2.1: Cumulative metering investment in Africa
Figure 2.7: AMI penetration rate in Africa
Figure 2.8: Cumulative AMI investment in Africa
Figure 3.1: South Africa generation forecast
Table 3.1: South African municipal utility metering
Figure 3.2: South Africa meter market forecast by segment
Table 3.2: South Africa meter forecast data
Figure 4.1: Nigeria generation forecast
Figure 4.2: Metering status at Nigerian utilities
Figure 4.3: Nigerian metering investment plans
Table 4.1: Nigerian utility plans and goals
Figure 4.4: Meters under contract for leading MAP providers (2019 - 2023)
Table 4.2: Nigerian utility meter financing
Figure 4.5: Nigeria meter market forecast by segment
Table 4.3: Nigeria meter forecast data
Figure 5.1: Kenya generation forecast
Figure 5.2: KPLC revenue and prepaid metering
Figure 5.3: Kenya meter market forecast by segment
Table 5.1: Kenya meter forecast data
Figure 6.1: Ghana generation forecast
Figure 6.2: Ghana customers and sales growth
Figure 6.3: Ghana meter market forecast by segment
Table 6.1: Ghana meter forecast data
Figure 7.1: Ethiopia generation forecast
Figure 7.2: Ethiopia metering plans timeline
Figure 7.3: Ethiopia meter market forecast by segment
Table 7.1: Ethiopia meter forecast data
Figure 8.1: Tanzania generation forecast
Figure 8.2: Electrification growth in Tanzania
Figure 8.3: Tanzania meter market forecast by segment
Table 8.1 Tanzania meter forecast data
Figure 9.1: Mozambique generation forecast
Table 9.1: EDM strategic initiatives
Figure 9.2: Mozambique meter market forecast by segment
Table 9.2: Mozambique meter forecast data
Figure 10.1: Côte d’Ivoire generation forecast
Figure 10.2: Côte d’Ivoire power sector targets
Figure 10.3: Côte d’Ivoire meter market forecast by segment
Table 10.1: Côte d’Ivoire meter forecast data
Figure 11.1: Angola generation forecast
Figure 11.2: Electrification in Angola
Figure 11.3: Angola meter market forecast by segment
Table 11.1: Angola meter forecast data
Figure 12.1: Senegal generation forecast
Figure 12.2: Recent SENELEC meter deployments
Figure 12.3: Senegal meter market forecast by segment
Table 12.1: Senegal meter forecast data
Figure 13.1: Uganda generation forecast
Figure 13.2: UMEME customer and prepaid growth
Figure 13.3: Uganda meter market forecast by segment
Table 13.1: Uganda meter forecast data
Figure 14.1: Cameroon generation forecast
Figure 14.2: Electrification growth in Cameroon
Figure 14.3: Cameroon meter market forecast by segment
Table 14.1: Cameroon meter forecast data
Figure 15.1: Zambia generation growth
Figure 15.2: ZESCO prepaid metering
Figure 15.3: Zambia meter market forecast by segment
Table 15.1: Zambia meter forecast data
Figure 16.1: Rwanda generation forecast
Figure 16.2: Electrification growth in Rwanda
Figure 16.3: Rwanda meter market forecast by segment
Table 16.1: Rwanda meter forecast data
Figure 17.1: Botswana generation forecast
Figure 17.2: BPC customer and sales growth
Figure 17.3: Botswana meter market forecast by segment
Table 17.1: Botswana meter forecast data
Figure 18.1: Namibia generation forecast
Figure 18.2: Namibia RED prepaid metering
Figure 18.3: Namibia meter market forecast by segment
Table 18.1: Namibia meter forecast data
Table 19.1: Meter market size of additional African countries
Figure 19.1: Additional countries not considered in detail
Table 20.1: Leading international and local vendors in Africa
Figure 20.1: Leading international metering vendors in Africa
Table 20.2: Leading off-grid power providers
Figure 20.2: Meters under contract for MAP providers in Nigeria
Figure 20.3: Chinese metering vendors in Africa
Figure 20.4: El Sewedy activity in Africa