Global Almond Market Trends and Insights
Rising Demand from Plant-Based Dairy and Confectionery Industries
Almond milk, yogurt alternatives, and chocolate fillings are capturing incremental volume from consumers who seek lactose-free and vegan options. The European Union imported 261,534 metric tons in the 2023-24 season, allocating most of this volume to food processing and confectionery. India’s imports climbed in the same year as urban snack demand accelerated. Saudi Arabia’s packaged food sales reached USD 22.9 billion in 2023, creating opportunities for almond inclusions in premium bars and bakery fillings. Asia-Pacific beverage makers are increasingly substituting dairy ingredients with almond-based alternatives due to the high prevalence of lactose intolerance. Processors that invest in steam sterilization and slicing capacity can therefore secure premium contracts with multinational food brands that demand ready-to-use, shelf-stable almond inputs.Expansion of Mechanized Orchards
Mechanical shakers, continuous-flow hullers, and AI-enabled irrigation controllers are cutting harvest labor costs while improving water productivity. Spain planted 765,541 hectares by 2023, with 15.5% still pre-bearing yet already fitted for mechanized harvest systems. Olam Food Ingredients has pledged to push irrigation distribution uniformity to 90% across all orchards by 2030, up from an 80% baseline, using smart sensors and AI to monitor tree health. Australia’s hedgerow systems yield 0.463 kilograms per cubic meter of water, compared to 0.331 kilograms under open-vase configurations, underscoring the efficiency gain of mechanized layouts. Wonderful Pistachios and Almonds invested USD 500 million in Central Valley processing and employee programs that support large-scale orchard modernization. These capital-intensive upgrades favor cooperative and corporate growers over smallholders, hastening consolidation within the almond market.Water Scarcity and Irrigation Caps
California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act forces basin-level sustainability by 2040, reducing pumping rights and raising compliance fees that erode grower margins. According to the Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación (MAPA), rainfall deficits in 2024/25 resulted in a production decline of over 35% in Murcia and Valencia, while Aragón and Castilla-La Mancha reported increases. Chilean output remains constrained by the limited availability of surface water in northern zones. Growers invest in micro-sprinklers and deficit irrigation yet face capital recovery challenges, especially smallholders active in the almond market.Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
- Government Subsidies for Nut Cultivation
- Genome-Edited Rootstocks Boost Salinity Tolerance
- Volatile Farm-Gate Prices from Oversupply Cycles
Segment Analysis
Complete Report Scope:
- By Geography
- North America
- United States
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Canada
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- United States
- Europe
- Spain
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Italy
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Portugal
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Greece
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Spain
- Asia-Pacific
- Iran
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Australia
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- China
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- India
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Vietnam
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Iran
- South America
- Chile
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Argentina
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Chile
- Middle East
- Saudi Arabia
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Egypt
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Saudi Arabia
- Africa
- Morocco
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Tunisia
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Morocco
- North America
Geography Analysis
In 2025, North America accounted for 38.2% of the almond market share, supported by California’s crop forecast for 2026-2031, which is based on bearing acres. Vertically integrated cooperatives export domestic production to over 100 countries, leveraging logistical advantages through dedicated shipping programs. Canada relies on imports for its snack and foodservice channels due to the absence of domestic orchards, which is caused by climatic constraints. Regulatory changes, such as groundwater fees under the preventive control rules of the Food Safety Modernization Act, have increased compliance costs while enhancing transparency in the supply chain. Investments in deficit irrigation and micro-sprinkler retrofits demonstrate regional adaptation strategies aimed at maintaining the almond production base.The Asia-Pacific region is the fastest-growing, projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.8% through 2031. India's tariff rollback on United States almonds boosted imports for the 2023-24 period. China's recovery from the 2023 economic contraction led to increased purchases in 2024 and revitalized food-service demand. Vietnam experienced a surge in imports, driven by strong growth in bakery exports. Australia achieved a record almond harvest in 2024, with the majority of shipments directed to Asian buyers seeking counter-seasonal supply. Iran expanded shipments to Europe, while localized slicing and roasting units in India and China reduced lead times and enabled flavor customization, enhancing almond market penetration. Europe maintains a balance of significant domestic production alongside continued demand for imports. Italy's aging orchards are producing declining volumes, while Portugal and Greece focus on heritage varieties valued for their flavor. Spain's competitive position is supported by origin labeling and geographic proximity, which contribute to a strong and stable European almond market.
The Middle East and Africa offer rising consumption, rooted in confectionery traditions and driven by the modernization of snacks. Tunisia’s exports to the United States slipped in 2024, illustrating competitiveness challenges. In-shell consumption spikes during Ramadan, while kernel demand from bakery plants calls for diced and slivered formats. Suppliers that adjust packaging and product mix capture incremental almond market share. South America grows as a niche supplier. Limited processing capacity and water constraints curb the near-term upside, yet the counter-seasonal harvest window from January to March allows Chile to achieve attractive pricing when Northern Hemisphere stocks are low.
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
- Market Overview
- Market Drivers
- Market Restraints
- Opportunities
- Challenges
- Value Chain Analysis
- Technologies and usage of AI in the Industry
- Input Market Analysis
- Distribution Channel Analysis
- Market Sentiment Analysis
- PESTLE Analysis
- Overview of the Competition
- Recent Developments
- Market Concentration Analysis
Additional Benefits:
- The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
- 3 months of analyst support

