Disruptive COVID-19 Challenging the ASEAN Automotive Market, 2020

Competitive Intensity Optimized by Positive Government Intervention to Accelerate the Growth of Sales and Production Investment in the Automotive Market

In 2019, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) sold a total of 3.5 million units of vehicles. It experienced a market decline of 2.9% year-on-year (YoY). The main reasons include the direct impact of the global economic slowdown on automotive sales and the decline in sales due to the election in Indonesia, which is the leader in ASEAN, with a 29.8% share.

Nevertheless, ASEAN has consistently maintained its position as the world’s 6th largest automotive market. Passenger vehicles (PVs) made up 65.3% of the market and commercial vehicles (CVs) constituted 34.7%. Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia accounted for 76.4% of ASEAN’s automotive market.

In 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic forced most affected countries to shut down production and reduce operations, including the manufacturing of complete vehicles, automotive parts, and components. Automotive and transportation is one of the major industrial sectors impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak.

Automotive demand has been affected due to global economic slowdown, reduced GDP, lower consumer confidence, demand-supply shocks, and liquidity challenges. In addition, COVID-19 will further influence the automotive market’s activities, including social distancing implementation and increasing the barriers of in-store interaction, test drive, and retail visit. Hence, it will make automotive purchases less attractive in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia.

Positive government interventions such as fiscal injections in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia in 2020 are likely to minimize the economic slowdown in these countries. In addition, automotive product development and investment from foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in Thailand and the income tax incentives offered by the Indonesian Government (up to 20 years of full corporate tax exemption) are likely to make production attractive for the automotive market.

Japanese automotive brands lead the ASEAN market. Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, and Isuzu are the key contributors in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. Proton in Malaysia grew significantly in 2019, it surpassed Honda and increased its share by 6% to become the second-biggest OEM in the passenger vehicle market.

Engine downsizing and electric vehicle (EV) development penetrate further. For example, in Indonesia, with the development and promotion of low-cost green cars, OEMs such as Toyota and Hyundai planned to invest in EV production capacity in the long term. On the other hand, Thailand aims to become an EV hub by 2025. OEMs are expected to further promote Industry 4.0 and invest in EV-related factories.

The study provides a strategic analysis of the growth environment and analysis of the automotive market in Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. The research defines key market trends and overall impact levels that will influence the automotive market in 2020. It also presents an overview of the sales market for passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles during the historic and forecast periods.