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Transformative Trends and Innovative Business Models Powering the Indian Electric Bus Market, FY 2019

  • Report

  • 102 Pages
  • August 2020
  • Region: India
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 5137084

Future Growth Potential Enhanced by New Business Models and Low Cost of Ownership Opportunity in the Electric Bus Market

This study on the Indian electric bus (eBus) market discusses the key influencing trends that are driving the growth in this segment. Government Initiatives in India to promote electric buses, state government initiatives, and FAME-II overview and incentive schemes are discussed in this study. The tenders in different cities for procuring the electric buses are compared and analyzed, and the differences between the gross cost contract (GCC) purchase model and the outright purchase model are explained. State-wise EV policies that have been announced and are in the implementation phase are discussed along with future government plans in India for electric buses. The key market drivers and restraints influencing electric buses in India are discussed in detail.

A complete total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis is done with a scenario comparing diesel and CNG buses to electric buses, highlighting the cost differences between them if they are owned for a year. Similarly, forecasting is also done for the same scenario in 2025 with the effects of a decline in battery prices in India. The estimated differences between the 3 buses are studied for that timeline as well. The major barriers in the adoption of electric buses and what are the solutions to overcome them are also explained through a detailed SWOT analysis on the implementation of electric buses in India. The key technological trends in India with electric buses (e.g., battery swapping) are also discussed. Charging infrastructures are explained in detail, including the different types used in different countries. Pantograph charging as an opportunity in India is explored through bus rapid transit system (BRTS) lanes.

The battery technology along with a pricing roadmap to the future and an estimated battery price in the future are also given. The limitless opportunities in recycling batteries and the different methods of recycling are discussed along with the possibilities of usage of secondary life applications with global examples of recycling and repurposing that have been implemented successfully as of now. The driveline technology is explained with a detailed analysis of the different types of electric driveline architecture and definitions of key terminologies along with electric motor benchmarking. The electric motor roadmap is also discussed and the pricing analysis for the different types of motors and their forecasting is also given. Finally, the future of electric buses in India is estimated with 3 different scenarios, and recommendations are provided for key stakeholders. The growth opportunities and strategic imperatives for success and growth in the electric bus market are also discussed.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • Executive Summary - Key Highlights

2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions this Study will Answer
  • Research Methodology

3. Electric Bus Market in India
  • Indian Electric Bus Market - Key Influencing Trends
  • Product Portfolio
  • Electric Buses Under FAME-I
  • FAME-I Tenders in Different Cities
  • FAME-I Bidding Prices - Comparison Between Different Cities
  • GCC Model and Outright Purchase Model Comparison
  • FAME-II - Buses Sanctioned
  • FAME-II - State-wise Penetration of Tenders Won for eBuses
  • Forecast of eBuses in India

4. Government Initiatives
  • FAME-II Incentives in India - An Overview
  • FAME-II - Incentive Structure
  • States Chipping in With EV Policies and Investments
  • State-wise Policies and Investments to Promote Electric Vehicles
  • Future Government Plans

5. Petroleum Import Bill and its Impact
  • Petroleum Import Bill in India

6. Total Cost of Ownership Analysis
  • TCO Analysis - Comparison of Diesel, CNG, and Electric
  • Future Scenario

7. Market Drivers and Restraints
  • Market Drivers
  • Drivers Explained
  • Market Restraints
  • Restraints Explained
  • Major Barriers in eBus Implementation and Solution
  • SWOT Analysis

8. Technology Trends
  • Why Battery Swapping?
  • Technology Comparison
  • Battery Swapping Operations in China and India

9. Battery Technology
  • Battery Technology Roadmap
  • Battery Price Roadmap
  • Battery Thermal Management System (BTMS)
  • Battery Technology Roadmap and Price Outlook
  • Battery Demand and Manufacturing Capacity

10. Recycling and Reusing of Lithium-ion Batteries
  • Reuse of Batteries for Secondary Life Applications
  • Secondary Life Applications
  • Recycling of Batteries
  • Global Examples of Recycling and Repurposing

11. Charging Infrastructure
  • Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Types with Various Connectors
  • Types of Charging Stations for Buses
  • Inductive Charging
  • Incentives for Charging Stations
  • Charging Strategies for eBuses
  • Pantograph Charging - Technology Roadmap
  • Opportunity for Pantograph Charging in BRTS
  • Charging Infrastructure in India - Challenges

12. Drivetrain Technology
  • Electric Driveline Architecture Benchmarking
  • Electric Motor Benchmarking
  • Electric Motor Roadmap

13. Growth Opportunities and Future outlook
  • Growth Opportunity 1 - Battery Swapping Model will Significantly Bring Down the Cost of Electric Buses
  • Growth Opportunity 2 - Focusing on Improving the Charging Infrastructure and Increasing Localization of EV Components
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

14. The Last word
  • The Last Word - 3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

15. Appendix
  • Table of Acronyms
  • List of Exhibits