The California Air Resources Board (CARB), provides annual emissions data for each facility within an organization. California Carbon compiles that data and segregates facilities into nine sectors. The publisher then looks at sector-wise macroeconomic indicators to derive a usable correlation between variables to provide the forecast up to 2030. In the emissions forecast for 2018, we achieved an accuracy of 99.6% against actual data. This report provides a forecast for emissions, supply-demand, and prices up to the year 2030.
The report is segregated into six sections. Section one of the report gives an overview of the present WCI market emissions. The reported emissions data from 2018 is analyzed by sector and major entity. Section two of the report evaluates how regulations have evolved over time, and how market prices have been affected by these regulatory shifts. Section three presents the sectoral emissions forecast through to 2030. Consequently, California Carbon Allowance (CCA) supply-demand forecast is laid out in section four. Section five builds on this balance to give a 2030 WCI price forecast. Whilst section six concludes some of the research and provides an opinion on the program’s future.
On the 4th November 2019, the California Air Resources Board released the annual GHG emissions for all entities listed to report their emissions under the cap-and-trade program. A total of 319,882,513 MtCO2e was reported for the year 2018, 0.22% lower than the previous year. Of the 814 entities listed in the report, 410 entities reported emissions greater than 25,000 MtCO2e; slightly lower than the 416 entities for the report year 2017. 25,000 MtCO2e is the threshold for involvement in the Cap-and-Trade (CaT) market.
Transportation Fuel and CO2 suppliers are the largest emitters under the cap-and-trade program. In 2018, the emissions reported for the sector was 159.54MMt CO2e. The forecast presents a consequent decline in emissions by 0.33% (0.53 MMt CO2e), to 159MMt CO2 for the year 2019.
Natural Gas Suppliers sector reported the second-largest emissions for the year 2018 at 44.3MMt CO2e. The emissions forecast corresponds to a decline of 1.43% (0.63MMt CO2e), closing at 44.70MMt CO2e for the year 2019.
In the year 2018, Refineries and Hydrogen plants sector accounted for 11.06% (35.379MMt CO2e) of total emissions. The forecast suggests a decrease in emissions by 0.077MMt CO2e, summing up to 35.30MMt CO2e for the year 2019. The sector is expected to reduce overall emissions marginally all the way up to 2030.
Fossil fuel electricity generation gauged a total of 31.30MMt CO2e in 2018, 1.4% (0.42MMt CO2e) higher than 2017. The forecast suggests a decrease in sectoral emission by 0.42MMt CO2e, from 31.30MMt CO2e (2018) to 30.88MMt CO2e (2019).
Emissions from Electricity importers accounted for 18.79MMt CO2e in the year 2018. The emissions for the year 2019 are expected to be nearing 18.96MMt CO2e¬, a slight annual increase with falls to come over the following years.
Oil and Gas Production reported GHG emissions at 14.04MMt CO2e for the year 2018. The forecast presents a decrease of 0.2MMt CO2e, amounting to 13.8MMt CO2e in the year 2019. Other Combustion Sources reported emission at 8.28MMt CO2 for the year 2018. The forecast suggests a decrease of 0.027MMt CO2e, closing at 8.30MMt CO2e for the year 2019.
Cement manufacturing accounted for a total of 7.86MMt CO2e for the year 2018. The publisher predicts emissions at 7.99MMt CO2e for the year 2019, increasing by 4.5% from 2017 levels. Other Cogeneration recorded emissions at 0.311MMt CO2e for 2018. This sector has been the lowest emitter under the cap-and-trade program. We anticipate a decrease by 0.7% to 0.309MMt CO2e in the year 2019
1 Context for the market
2 WCI Regulatory Timeline
2.1 CaliforniaCarbon.info Model Update on the proposed entry of Oregon in the Cap and Trade
3 California GHG Emissions Forecast
3.1 Forecast Methodology
3.2 Long-term sectoral emissions forecast
3.3 Sectoral breakdown of forecasted emissions and production
3.3.1 Transportation Fuel & CO2 suppliers
3.3.2 Natural Gas Suppliers
3.3.3 Refineries and Hydrogen Plants
3.3.4 Fossil Fuel Based Electricity Generation
3.3.5 Electricity Importers
3.3.6 Oil and Gas Production
3.3.7 Other Combustion Sources
3.3.8 Cement Manufacturing
3.4 Other Cogeneration
3.5 WCI’s GHG emissions forecast
4 Supply- Demand Forecast of Carbon Allowances in WCI
5 WCI Carbon allowance price forecast
5.2 Allowance price forecast under base case emissions scenario:
5.3 Allowance price forecast under low case emissions scenario
5.4 Allowance price forecast under high emissions case scenario
6 Looking ahead
Figures and Tables
Figure 1: WCI Cap and Trade Program through 2013 to 2020.
Figure 2: California sector-wise emissions
Figure 3: California's path forward
Figure 4: Long-term capped sector forecast (2018-2030) (Base Case)
Figure 5: Covered emissions forecast for transportation fuel & CO2 suppliers
Figure 6: Forecast for transportation fuel sales by volume
Figure 7: Emissions forecast for Natural Gas Suppliers
Figure 8: End-use Natural Gas consumption forecast
Figure 9: Emissions forecast for refineries and hydrogen plants
Figure 10: Refinery production forecast
Figure 11: Covered emissions forecast for fossil fuel electricity generation
Figure 12: Fossil fuel-based electricity generation forecast
Figure 13: Covered emissions forecast for electricity importers
Figure 14: Electricity import from non-renewable sources
Figure 15: Covered emission forecast for oil and gas production
Figure 16: Combined oil and gas production forecast
Figure 17: Covered emissions forecast for other combustion sources
Figure 18: Covered emissions forecast for cement manufacturing
Figure 19: Annual cement production forecast
Figure 20: Covered emission forecast for other co-generation
Figure 21: WCI GHG emission forecast (base case)
Figure 22: WCI CCA supply-demand forecast (till 2030)
Figure 23: Expected WCI annual and cumulative shortage
Figure 24: Allowance Price Forecast (till 2030 for all cases)
Figure 25: Allowance price forecast base case scenario
Figure 26: Allowance price forecast low emissions scenario
Figure 27: Allowance price forecast high emissions scenario
- Aera Energy
- Berry Petroleum Company
- California Resources Corporation
- Chevron USA
- Long Beach Gas and Oil Department
- Pacific Gas and Electric
- Phillips 66 Company
- Rio Tinto Minerals
- San Diego Gas and Electric
- Sempra Gas and Power Marketing
- Shell Oil Products US
- Southern California Gas Company
- Southwest Gas Distribution Facilities
- Tesoro Refining and Marketing Company
- Valero Refining Company