Carton Board - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2024 - 2029)

The Global Cartonboard Market size is estimated at USD 71.93 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 98.41 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 6.47% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

Key Highlights

• The cartonboard market is significantly influenced by the burgeoning e-commerce logistics industry, driven by evolving consumer behavior and the increased prevalence of online shipping. Furthermore, environmentally conscious consumers are favoring eco-friendly products, leading to a voluntary shift toward sustainable packaging like paperboard, which is gaining market acceptance rapidly. Additionally, the recyclability of cartons multiple times reduces overall environmental waste, prompting governments to actively support such initiatives.
• The packaging industry, being complex and ever-evolving, has been impacted by technological advancements in two significant ways: the rising demand for packaging in e-commerce and the integration of sensors and other technologies into packaging materials. E-commerce has brought forth new packaging concerns such as product safety, unpacking experiences, anti-counterfeiting measures, optimization for final delivery, and a growing interest, especially among major e-commerce retailers, in merging primary and secondary packaging.
• The global retail market is experiencing substantial growth, propelling the demand for retail-ready packaging (RRP). Recent data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates that packaged food retail sales in Saudi Arabia alone surpassed USD 20 billion. RRP has become a pivotal aspect of retailing as retailers continually seek methods to enhance efficiency and sustainability. While packaging had traditionally dominated RRP, the need for size reduction presents significant opportunities in the folding carton packaging format, ultimately driving market growth.
• In recent years, the price of paper has soared due to factors like increasing demand, availability issues, and other market changes in the pulp and paper industry. The global economy's post-COVID reopening and companies regaining momentum led to a surge in paper demand. However, supply shortages emerged due to disruptions in the supply chain, including raw material shortages and transportation problems. This supply-demand imbalance significantly escalated paper prices, highlighting the industry's challenges influenced by economic recovery and supply chain dynamics.
• The COVID-19 outbreak substantially altered consumer behavior, with buyers placing heightened emphasis on product hygiene, safety, and sustainability. The evolving needs of shoppers and a consumer-centric approach remained pivotal as the crisis endured. Anticipated changes in consumer behavior in the forecast period were expected to reflect the market's adaptation to the then-current scenario, fostering promising demand for paper and paperboard packaging in the post-COVID-19 future.

Carton Board Market Trends

Beverage Segment to be the Fastest Growing End User

• Beverages such as fruit juices, alcoholic beverages, and meal replacement shakes require paper packaging solutions. However, beverage quality is affected by pH, storage temperature, pressure, and the presence of contaminants. Changing the fill amount can change the composition of the drink. More and more companies use biodegradable packaging products with high barrier resistance (against heat, moisture, and bacteria) to prevent possible oxidation.
• Solid unbleached sulfate (SUS), or unbleached kraft paperboard, is a strong and printable material commonly used in the packaging industry. It is often used to make beverage boxes and containers, combining Kraft paper's sturdiness with a white finish. One side of the board is typically coated with a clay coating to make it suitable for printing.
• For many years, efforts have been made to increase the ability to recycle beverage containers. This has been achieved through joint investments with recyclers, technology suppliers, and equipment providers to build new facilities. In June 2023, Tetra Pak and Stora Enso invested roughly EUR 29 million (USD 31.5 million) in a new recycling line for beverage cartons in Poland. This line can multiply the country's yearly recycling capacity of beverage cartons - from 25,000 to 75,000 tonnes. It also provides the chance to recycle the entire amount of beverage cartons sold in Poland and those from neighboring countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania.
• This partnership with Stora Enso has resulted in one of the European Union's (EU) biggest recycling facilities for beverage cartons. This exemplifies how collective efforts can help preserve quality renewable materials from recycled cartons, such as paper fibers. As a member of the Alliance for Beverage Cartons and the Environment (ACE), Tetra Pak is dedicated to achieving the industry objective of having a 90% collection rate and a 70% recycling rate for beverage cartons in the EU by 2030. Moreover, liquid carton boards/tetra packs are one of the fastest-growing packaging types, driven by non-alcoholic beverages. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, Canada had the topmost juice market globally, with export volume totaling USD 484.53 million. This is followed by Japan with USD 84.41 Million and Mexico with USD 66.61 Million.
• Coupled with the rising awareness for recyclable packaging material and the robust recyclability feature of cartonboard, in February 2023, Tetra Pak and saveBOARD disclosed one of the first beverage carton recycler facilities in New South Wales, Australia. This is a major accomplishment toward the collective environmental objectives. It is the first of its kind in the country, and it will reuse the cartons to create low-carbon building materials for homes and offices without consuming any extra water, adhesives, or chemicals, thus making it a genuinely sustainable product.

Asia Pacific is Expected to Hold Significant Market Share

• China's market for carton board packaging is projected to grow due to a growing urban population, an evolving e-commerce package industry, declining pulp prices, and improved awareness of the use of eco-friendly packaging. According to the China Paper Association, the consumption volume of paper pulp in China amounted to around 112.95 million metric tons in 2022, up from 93.87 million metric tons in 2018. This is expected to support the growing and consumption of folding cartons to increase the capacity for carton boards.
• Furthermore, the Chinese packaging sector continues to evolve and become more advanced. For the past few years, most fruit package options have been made of plastic; however, the trend is changing in the region with changing regulations from plastics to paper and carton packages. In addition, given the increasing concern about safety and environmental protection, safe packaging is set to become a significant focus for food packaging over the next few years.
• India's carton board growth is driven by continued demand for quality packaging of various FMCG products, pharmaceuticals, textiles, organized retail, booming e-commerce, and other segments. Additionally, Fruit pulp, juices, and other concentrates drive the growing demand for carton boards in India. The industry in India has gone up the sustainability curve and has become far more technologically advanced.
• The carton board market in Japan could be a valuable partner of the alcoholic beverages industry if it considers the government's objective to increase alcohol consumption and addresses evolving attitudes among young people. Cartonboard producers can take advantage of the increased demand for alcohol packaging and stimulate growth in the market, raise the government's tax revenues, or increase them if they emphasize innovation, sustainability, customization, and effective marketing.
• Australia has witnessed huge demand for corrugated packaging in the e-commerce sector. For instance, according to Australia Post, Year-on-Year sales growth increased for e-commerce industries like home and garden (37%), food and liquor (32%), hobbies and recreational goods (31%), variety stores (30%), fashion (27%), health and beauty (24%). Also, according to National Australia Bank, the distribution of online spending on homeware and appliances, department stores, grocery and liquor, personal and recreational, fashion, games, and toys in August 2021 accounted for 23.8%, 16.3%, 15.3%, 12.45, 10.9%, 8.9% respectively. This has increased the demand for secondary packaging, such as folding cartons, in the country.

Carton Board Industry Overview

The Cartonboard market features key players such as Asia Pulp & Paper Group (APP), Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MM Group), Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited, Westrock Company, and Graphic Packaging Holding Company. These entities are employing strategic maneuvers like partnerships and acquisitions to fortify their product portfolios and secure a lasting competitive edge.

In September 2023, Smurfit WestRock emerged as a sustainability-focused global force following the merger of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock. This consolidation aims to synergize their paper-based packaging businesses, capitalizing on their complementary strengths to establish a formidable presence in sustainable packaging on a global scale.

In April 2023, Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MM Group) greenlit a comprehensive investment initiative designed to fortify Poland's major cardboard and paper mill. Valued at approximately EUR 660 million (USD 721.6 million), this three-part plan entails measures to curtail energy and CO2 expenses, integrate pulp resources, and penetrate the sack kraft paper market. These strategic moves are geared toward positioning the plant for sustained long-term viability and environmental sustainability.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

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