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Type 1 Diabetes - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029

  • ID: 5311426
  • Report
  • March 2021
  • Region: Global
  • 133 pages
  • GlobalData

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Adocia
  • Biocon/Viatris
  • Diamyd Medical
  • Dompe Farmaceuti
  • J&J
  • Mannkind Corporation
1h Free Analyst Time

Speak directly to the analyst to clarify any post sales queries you may have.

Type 1 Diabetes (T1D), is an autoimmune disease that permanently destroys beta cells of the pancreatic islet, which means that the body can no longer produce insulin. Insulin is the hormone that is needed for the transport of glucose from blood into cells, and without it the body is driven into a hyperglycemic state. Left untreated, this leads to death. There is no cure for T1D, and it is managed as a chronic condition through injections of exogenous insulin. There are other types of diabetes such as Type 2 Diabetes (developed resistance to insulin), gestational diabetes, latent autoimmune diabetes in adults, and diabetes that occurs as a symptom of other diseases. This report focuses on T1D.

The launch of the first disease-modifying therapeutics will be the main drivers of growth over the forecast period, with the first preventative therapeutic for T1D, Teplizumab, expected to launch in the US during the forecast period. Other major drivers for the T1D market include the increased T1D diagnosed prevalence, and the uptake of novel ultra-rapid-acting and ultra-long-acting insulin analogs. Based on the epidemiological analysis by the publisher, the diagnosed prevalent cases of T1D in the 8MM will grow by 17.79% over the next decade, from 3,329,294 prevalent cases in 2019 to 3,921,695 prevalent cases in 2029, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.78% per year in the eight major pharmaceutical markets (8MM) covered in this report, the US, 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK), Japan and Canada.

The publisher projects the therapeutic market for T1D within the 8MM will grow from $4.9B in 2019 at a significant compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2% to $24B by 2029. In particular, the publisher expects the US market will contribute the most to the T1D market’s growth, contributing $4.3B sales in 2019 (87.7% of the T1D market) and $20.3B in 2029 (84.7% of the T1D market).

The consensus among interviewed physicians regarding the current treatment landscape was that while there are a number of insulin treatment options, there are a significant number of patients that are ineffectively managed, and therefore are considerably high unmet needs within the indication. Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) interviewed by the publisher highlighted the lack of a no disease-modifying therapeutic that combats the autoimmune-mediated attack of beta cells in T1D patients. Other major issues include glycemic control, addressing obesity, and overall disease management. Despite a number of drugs currently in development, the publisher’s research suggests that the future level of attainment of these unmet needs will be modest, and a relatively high level of opportunity exists for drug developers to enter the T1D market.

Key Highlights
  • The diagnosed prevalence of T1D is expected to increase over the 10-year forecast period due changing population demographics, and an increased understanding of risk factors and environmental factors that may trigger the onset of T1D.
  • The potential launch of 5 disease-modifying therapeutics will increase the number of patients who, at diagnosis, can prolong their endogenous insulin secretion to improve disease management. These drugs are expected to have a high annual cost of therapy (ACOT), a factor that will contribute to notable profitability.
  • The increasing trend of device integration into the treatment and management of T1D will impact the therapeutics that find success in the market. The drive toward closed-loops systems, like an artificial pancreas, places a great need for ultra-fast insulins to launch in the market, and prompts more collaboration between across the industry.
  • Despite the variety of insulins currently available to T1D patients, there is still room for improvement within the treatment space. The most recognizable is the need for novel treatment options for refractory patients.
Key Questions Answered

Despite the existence of numerous well-established treatment options in the T1D space, a few-yet significant-unmet needs remain.
  • Which unmet needs are the most pressing in the 8MM?
  • Where should pharmaceutical companies focus drug development efforts in order to become a significant player in the space?
Novel insulins continue to be developed, and the first disease-modifying therapeutics may emerge over the forecast period.
  • What are the most promising late-stage candidates and how much they expected to generate over the forecast period?
  • What do KOLs say about their clinical and commercial positioning?
The T1D market has been dominated by three main companies since the discovery of insulin 100 years ago, though more recently new players have started to emerge.
  • Which have been historically the companies leading the way?
  • What new companies are emerging in the space?
Scope
  • Overview of T1D including epidemiology, disease etiology and management.
  • Topline T1D drugs market revenue (including off-label adjunct therapeutics used for metabolic benefits), annual cost of therapy, and anticipated sales for major late-stage pipeline drugs.
  • Key topics covered include assessment of current and pipeline therapies, unmet needs, current and future players and market outlook for the US, 5EU, Japan and Canada over the 10-year forecast period.
  • Pipeline analysis: Emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global angina pectoris therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges.
Reasons to Buy

The report will enable you to -
  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies, using a detailed overview of current pipeline products and technologies to identify companies with the most robust pipelines.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global T1D therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global T1D market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Track drug sales in the global T1D therapeutics market from 2019-2029.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Adocia
  • Biocon/Viatris
  • Diamyd Medical
  • Dompe Farmaceuti
  • J&J
  • Mannkind Corporation
1 Type 1 Diabetes: Executive Summary
1.1 The Type 1 Diabetes Market Will Grow to $24B by 2029
1.2 T1D Veteran Players Use Various Strategies to Defend Insulin Franchises from Biosimilar Erosion, While New Players Invest in the Disease-Modifying Space
1.3 Current and Future Therapies Leave Significant Unmet Needs in the Market
1.4 The Rise of Pump Usage and Increased Market Entry of Ultra-Rapid-Acting Insulin Formulations May Improve the T1D Treatment Landscape
1.5 Opportunity Remains for Beta Cell Regenerative Therapies
1.6 What Do Physicians Think?

2 Introduction
2.1 Catalyst
2.2 Related Reports
2.3 Upcoming Reports

3 Disease Overview
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
3.1.1 Etiology
3.1.2 Pathophysiology
3.1.3 Biomarkers for Monitoring the Islet Autoreactivity of Type 1 Diabetes

4 Epidemiology
4.1 Disease Background
4.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
4.3 Global and Historical Trends
4.4 Forecast Methodology
4.4.1 Sources
4.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
4.4.3 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D
4.4.4 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D by Body Mass Index
4.4.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D with Brittle Diabetes
4.4.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D Experienced with Diabetic Ketoacidosis Event
4.4.7 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D Who Experienced Hypoglycemia Events
4.4.8 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D Who Are Eligible for Pancreas and/or Islet Transplantation
4.4.9 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D Who Require/Will Undergo a Kidney Transplant or Have Already Received a Kidney Transplant
4.4.10 Total Prevalent Cases of T1D
4.5 Epidemiological Forecast for T1D (2019-2029)
4.5.1 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D
4.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D
4.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D
4.5.4 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D by BMI
4.5.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D with Brittle Diabetes and Diabetic Ketoacidosis Event
4.5.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D Who Have Experienced Hypoglycemia Events
4.5.7 T1D Diagnosed Patients Who Are Eligible for Pancreas and/or Islet Transplantation and Who Require/Will Undergo a Kidney Transplant OR Have Already Received a Kidney Transplant
4.5.8 Total Prevalent Cases of T1D
4.6 Discussion
4.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
4.6.2 COVID-19 Impact
4.6.3 Limitations of the Analysis
4.6.4 Strengths of the Analysis

5 Disease Management
5.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview
5.2 US Disease Management
5.3 5EU Disease Management
5.4 Japan Disease Management
5.5 Canada Disease Management
5.6 KOL Insights on Disease Management

6 Competitive Assessment
6.1 Overview

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Disease-Modifying Therapies - Preservation of Beta Cells
7.3 Hypoglycemia Avoidance and Managing Glycemic Control
7.4 Obesity, Weight Management, and Control of Associated Metabolic Syndrome
7.5 Improving Compliance and Reducing the Burden of Insulin Therapies
7.6 Type 1 Diabetes Patient Care and Education

8 R&D Strategies
8.1 Overview
8.2 Clinical Trials Design

9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis
10.1 Overview
10.2 Competitive Assessment

11 Current and Future Players
11.1 Overview
11.2 Deal-Making Trends
11.3 Sanofi Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.4 Eli Lilly Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.5 Novo Nordisk Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.6 Johnson and Johnson Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.7 Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.8 AstraZeneca, 2021
11.9 Mannkind Corporation, 2021
11.10 Diasome Pharmaceuticals Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.11 Adocia Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.12 Biocon Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.13 Diamyd Medical Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.14 Zealand Pharma Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.15 vTv Therapeutics Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.16 Provention Bio Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.17 Dompé Farmaceuti Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.18 PolTreg Portfolio Assessment, 2021
11.19 CellTrans Portfolio Assessment, 2021

12 Market Outlook
12.1 Global Markets
12.1.1 Forecast
12.1.2 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues
12.2 US
12.2.1 Forecast
12.2.2 Key Events
12.2.3 Drivers and Barriers
12.3 5EU
12.3.1 Forecast
12.3.2 Key Events
12.3.3 Drivers and Barriers
12.4 Japan
12.4.1 Forecast
12.4.2 Key Events
12.4.3 Drivers and Barriers
12.5 Canada
12.5.1 Forecast
12.5.2 Key Events
12.5.3 Drivers and Barriers

13 Appendix

List of Tables
Table 1: Type 1 Diabetes: Key Metrics in the 8MM
Table 2: Symptoms of T1D
Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for T1D
Table 4: Diagnostic Tests and Typical Criteria for Diagnosing T1D
Table 5: Treatment Guidelines for Type 1 Diabetes
Table 6: A Sample of Education Campaigns in Type 1 Diabetes
Table 7: A Sample of Head-to-Head Trials in Type 1 Diabetes
Table 8: Sanofi Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 9: Eli Lilly Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 10: Novo Nordisk Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 11: J&J Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 12: Provention Bio Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 13: AstraZeneca, 2021
Table 14: PolTreg Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 15: Diasome Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 16: Adocia Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 17: Biocon Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 18: Diamyd Medical Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 19: Zealand Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 20: vTv Therapeutics Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 21: Provention Bio Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 22: Dompé Farmaceuti Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 23: PolTreg Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 24: CellTrans Portfolio Assessment, 2021
Table 25: Type 1 Diabetes Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2019-2029
Table 26: Key Events Impacting Sales for Type 1 Diabetes in the US, 2019-2029
Table 27: Type 1 Diabetes - Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2019-2029
Table 28: Key Events Impacting Sales for Type 1 Diabetes in the 5EU, 2019-2029
Table 29: Type 1 Diabetes Market - Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2019-2029
Table 30: Key Events Impacting Sales for Type 1 Diabetes in Japan, 2019-2029
Table 31: Type 1 Diabetes Market - Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2019-2029
Table 32: Key Events Impacting Sales for Type 1 Diabetes in Canada, 2019-2029
Table 33: Type 1 Diabetes Market - Drivers and Barriers in Canada, 2019-2029
Table 34: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

List of Figures
Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for T1D in 2019 and 2029
Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Type 1 Diabetes During the Forecast Period
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to be Licensed for the Treatment of Type 1 Diabetes During the Forecast Period
Figure 4: Etiology of T1D
Figure 5: Pathophysiology of T1D
Figure 6: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalence (%) of T1D, Men, All Ages, 2009-2029
Figure 7: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalence (%) of T1D, Women, All Ages, 2009-2029
Figure 8: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D
Figure 9: 8MM, Sources Used, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D by BMI, Brittle Diabetes, Diabetic Ketoacidosis Event, and Hypoglycemia Events
Figure 10: 8MM, Sources Used, Total Prevalent Cases of T1D
Figure 11: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2019
Figure 12: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D, Both Sexes, N, 2019
Figure 13: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D, All Ages, N, 2019
Figure 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D by BMI, All Ages, N, 2019
Figure 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D with Brittle Diabetes and Diabetic Ketoacidosis Events, All Ages, N, 2019
Figure 16: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T1D Who Have Experienced Hypoglycemia Events, All Ages, N, 2019
Figure 17: 8MM, T1D Diagnosed Patients Who Are Eligible for Pancreas and/or Islet Transplantation and Who Require/Will Undergo a Kidney Transplant or Have Already Received a Kidney Transplant, All Ages, N, 2019
Figure 18: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of T1D, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2019
Figure 19: Disease Management Flow Chart
Figure 20: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Type 1 Diabetes
Figure 21: Overview of the Development Pipeline in Type 1 Diabetes
Figure 22: Key Late-Stage Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects be Licensed for T1D in the 8MM During the Forecast Period
Figure 23: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to be Licensed for the Treatment of T1D During the Forecast Period
Figure 24: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Human Insulins and Pre-Mix Insulins
Figure 25: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Rapid-Acting Insulin Analogs
Figure 26: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Basal Insulin Analogs
Figure 27: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Adjunct Therapeutics
Figure 28: Competitive Assessment of the Disease-Modifying Therapeutics
Figure 29: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in T1D During the Forecast Period
Figure 30: Global (8MM) Sales Forecast by Country for T1D, 2019 and 2029
Figure 31: Sales Forecast by Class for Type 1 Diabetes in the US, 2019 and 2029
Figure 32: Sales Forecast by Class for Type 1 Diabetes in the 5EU in 2019 and 2029
Figure 33: Sales Forecast by Class for Type 1 Diabetes in Japan in 2019 and 2029
Figure 34: Sales Forecast by Class for Type 1 Diabetes in Canada in 2019 and 2029
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
  • Novo Nordisk
  • Eli Lilly
  • Sanofi
  • Biocon/Viatris
  • Mannkind Corporation
  • J&J
  • Diasome
  • Adocia
  • Diamyd Medical
  • Zealand Pharma
  • AstraZeneca
  • Lexicon Therapeutics
  • vTv Therapeutics
  • Provention Bio
  • Dompe Farmaceuti
  • PolTreg
  • CellTrans
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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