China's Memory Ambitions

Impact of China’s Initiative will be Felt Throughout the Industry

China has detailed an investment plan and an organizational structure to create an important presence in the memory chip market.  With its phenomenal resources and its centrally-planned economy the country is very likely to successfully penetrate the market to the detriment of today’s current suppliers.  This report, an update to the acclaimed 2018 publication, details the Chinese government’s plans, and explains how when and why the memory chip business will respond to China’s existing plans.

With an investment of over $150 billion China has shown its determination to become self-sufficient in memory chips, and is most likely to achieve its goals.  That’s the finding of the report China’s Memory Ambitions.        

“China found that its semiconductor imports exceeded even its petroleum imports, motivating this cash-rich nation to seek self-sufficiency,” said Jim Handy, General Director.  “We find little reason to doubt that the Chinese people will achieve their goal, although perhaps not on the aggressive schedule they initially set for themselves.”

China has detailed an investment plan and an organizational structure to create an important presence in the memory chip market.  With its phenomenal resources and its centrally-planned economy, the country is very likely to successfully penetrate the market to the detriment of current suppliers.  This report details the plans of the Chinese government and explains how, when, and why the memory chip business will respond to China’s campaign.  

The report explains the necessity for China to become a factor in the semiconductor memory market and draws parallels to similar initiatives by Japanese and Korean suppliers in the 1980s and 1990s.  It also examines earlier campaigns in China which won the country an important share of the markets for textiles, aluminum, steel, photovoltaics, and other products.  

Subsequent chapters explain how Chinese investment funds have been created and how they will be managed to support regional interests along with the national government’s objectives.  Other chapters explore the roles of government agencies, both Chinese and foreign, to bring an understanding of the role that international politics will play in China’s journey. Case histories of prior Chinese semiconductor initiatives are used to shed light on potential problem areas.  

Finally, the report provides forecasts of various likely outcomes, explaining what these outcomes mean to semiconductor makers and users, tool suppliers, and investors in this marketplace.  

The 102-page study includes 50 figures and 7 tables. These include the semiconductor memory forecast (China’s focus market) regional semiconductor sales, graphic depictions of the mechanics of semiconductor cycles, and visualizations of other programs that China has initiated.