The publisher explores Novo Nordisk’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019-29.
Snapshot
Model updates (4 November 2020)
Model updates (7 August 2020)
Model updates (2 June 2020)
Model updates (6 March 2020)
Snapshot
- Overview - Novo Nordisk continues to dominate the diabetes segment, but pricing pressure in the US will dampen overall sales growth during the forecast period.
- Key Themes - [1] Novo Nordisk will maintain its dominance in diabetes with the launch of Rybelsus [2] Growth in Rest of World regions, especially China, is key to Novo Nordisk’s long-term revenue outlook [3] US volume growth and market share will remain strong, but pricing pressures, discounts, and rebates will limit revenue growth [4] Insulin biosimilars are a key risk to Novo Nordisk’s insulin franchises, but limited impact seen to date.
Model updates (4 November 2020)
- Tresiba forecast adjusted lower in the US due to pricing pressures on insulins; long-term forecast adjusted higher due to later loss of exclusivity
- Xultophy forecast adjusted lower in the US due to pricing pressures on insulins
- Levemir forecast adjusted lower in the US due to pricing pressures on insulins
- FIAsp forecast adjusted lower in the US due to pricing pressures on insulins
- Victoza forecast adjusted higher in Rest of World due to less Ozempic cannibalization to date
- Ozempic forecast adjusted higher in the US and Europe for diabetes; forecast adjusted higher globally due to obesity launches in 2022+
- Saxenda forecast adjusted lower in the US due to lower sales
- Somapacitan name changed to Sogroya due to approval; forecast adjusted lower in ex-US markets to align with expected approval timeline.
Model updates (7 August 2020)
- Ozempic forecast adjusted lower in the US
- Rybelsus forecast adjusted higher in the US
- Levemir forecast adjusted lower in the US
- Tresiba forecast adjusted lower in the US.
Model updates (2 June 2020)
- Esperoct forecast adjusted lower.
Model updates (6 March 2020)
- Tresiba forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
- Xultophy forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
- Levemir forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
- NovoMix forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
- NovoRapid forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
- Victoza forecast adjusted lower in the US due to patient shifts to Ozempic
- Ozempic forecast adjusted higher globally due to continued market share gains and GLP-1 class growth
- Rybelsus forecast adjusted lower due to slower launch trend
- Saxenda forecast adjusted lower due to future generic competition.
Table of Contents
Company Background
Recent Earnings Review
Company Forecast
Company Profile
Clinical Trial Overview
