The agricultural sector is a critical component of the global economy. The Agricultural Forecast team develops demand and supply estimates and pricing over a 20 year period using five years of historical data for the major agricultural markets: corn, soybeans, rice, coffee, cocoa and wheat. The prices for agricultural products are determined by balancing global demand and global supply over a 20 period.
The Agricultural products forecast is most similar to the metals forecast, with the model broken down by crop. The model here also relies on the assumption that global supply is equal to global demand, with countries rarely self-sufficient over all commodities within their agricultural industry. First up are cocoa and coffee, measured in kilograms. The other four commodities are maize (corn), rice, soybeans, and wheat, measured in thousands of metric tons. Similar to metals, agricultural prices are average world prices, projected over the length of the forecast.
Examining countries by their agricultural consumption, especially when examining per capita amounts give a glimpse in regards to the quality of life of a country’s citizens. Greater access to agricultural raw materials such as corn and rice mean more plentiful food supplies.
The forecast allows the reader to examine long-term trends that provide an added level of information in regard to a decision making process. Being able to answer questions regarding the details of a country without physically being there is an important resource.
I. Global Agriculture Overview
II. Country Agriculture Data
III. Agriculture Model