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GCC Light Vehicle Aftermarket Outlook, 2021

  • Report

  • 76 Pages
  • July 2021
  • Region: Middle East
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 5393554

Innovative Business Models Propel Future Growth Potential

In 2020, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region faced significant challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price crash. Gross domestic product (GDP) in GCC nations contracted by 5%-10% in 2020. The GCC population dropped by 3%-5% due to expatriate exodus. Every industry and sector faced multiple disruptions.

The GCC light vehicle aftermarket also evolved due to a market demand decline as vehicle miles traveled (VMT) decreased, the supply chain was disrupted, and new business models (such as door-to-door service) emerged to serve the market in the new normal.

During an economic recovery, cost-efficiency is a prime purchase decision factor. For example, after establishing partnerships with 2 online platforms, a small, 6-year-old garage in Dubai grew by 30% in H2 2020 by offering cheaper service contracts targeting American vehicles to win over customers from dealer service centers nearby; China-made car tires in Kuwait gained market share from 38.0% in 2014 to over 50.0% in 2020. Overall, the market witnessed a trend of independent aftermarket brands overtaking the original equipment (OE) brands in 2020.

With the economic diversification and development of non-oil industries, the GCC region’s economy is expected to recover and grow from 2021 onward. National schemes in GCC countries, such as Saudi Vision 2030, Qatar 2030 and UAE 2030, are projected to be major long-term growth drivers.

Global events like Expo 2020 Dubai (rescheduled to October 2021) and the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar are likely to attract millions of visitors to the region and trigger a demand surge in multiple industries, including the light vehicle aftermarket.

Dubai’s efforts in building a smart sustainable city incorporate the Connected, Autonomous, Shared, Electric (CASE) mobility concept in the automotive market. Innovation dealers use connective technology to record vehicle status remotely and help drivers book maintenance appointments. Several car-sharing start-ups in the region have major expansion plans in 2021, either for company-owned fleets or peer-to-peer sharing.

Electric cars adoption is also growing in GCC countries, with Dubai registering the highest adoption currently. With mobility technology developing, the service market is expected to see many new market dynamics with the mobility industry’s advancement.

This outlook study analyzes and forecasts the development of GCC countries’ light vehicle aftermarket from 2021-2025 under various future trends and macroeconomic forces. It gives forecasts for aftermarket revenue (including by country, product type, and segment), sales, and vehicles in operation.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • 2020-2021 Key Highlights
  • Impact of COVID-19 on the GCC Countries Light Vehicle Aftermarket in 2020
  • 2020 GCC Light Vehicle Aftermarket - Actuals vs Forecast
  • GCC Countries Light Vehicle Aftermarket Revenue
  • GCC Light Vehicle Aftermarket Revenue by Segment
  • COVID-19 Impact on Light Vehicle Global Sales
  • Impact of COVID-19 on the GCC Light Vehicle Aftermarket
  • Top Predictions for 2021

2. The Strategic Imperative
  • Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
  • The Strategic Imperative 8™
  • The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the GCC Light Vehicle Aftermarket
  • Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

3. Growth Environment and Scope
  • Research Scope
  • Parts Segmentation
  • Product/System Segmentation
  • After-Service Channels*

4. Macro Economic Factors
  • 2021 GCC Region Economic Outlook - Top Predictions
  • GCC Region - Demographic Highlights
  • Middle East - Key Economic Developments
  • Regulations Set to Play a Major Role in the GCC Light Vehicle Aftermarket Beyond 2020
  • Distribution Channel Structure

5. Key Revenue Trends
  • 2021 GCC Region Light Vehicle Aftermarket Revenue Forecast by Country
  • GCC Region Light Vehicle Aftermarket Revenue
  • GCC Region Light Vehicle Aftermarket Revenue Forecast by Country
  • GCC Region Light Vehicle Aftermarket Revenue Forecasts by Product Type

6. Key Predictions for 2021
  • Key 2021 GCC Countries Light Vehicle Aftermarket Trends
  • Prediction 1: Supply Chain Decentralization
  • Predictions 2-4: Digital Penetration in Service, Online Aggregators, and Door-to-Door Service
  • Prediction 5: Cheaper Alternatives
  • Prediction 6: Growing Market for Used Cars
  • Prediction 7: Electric Vehicles
  • Prediction 8: Shared Cars on the Rise

7. Segment Outlook, 2021
  • 2021 Market Snapshot
  • Vehicles in Operation* Analysis and Forecast
  • Vehicles in Operation Analysis* - Vehicle Age
  • New Vehicle* Sales Analysis and Outlook
  • GCC Countries Light Vehicle Aftermarket Industry Revenue
  • Segment Outlook 2021 - Genuine/OES Parts
  • Segment Outlook 2021 - OE Parts
  • Segment Outlook 2021 - Branded Aftermarket Parts
  • Segment Outlook 2021 - Parallel Imports
  • Segment Outlook 2021 - Counterfeits
  • GCC Countries Light Vehicle Aftermarket Diagnostics - Companies to Watch
  • Key Growth Opportunities for 2021-2025

8. Country Predictions 2021
  • 2021 Predictions - Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
  • 2021 Predictions - United Arab Emirates
  • 2021 Predictions - Qatar
  • 2021 Predictions - Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait

9. Growth Opportunity Universe
  • Growth Opportunity 1: Online Car Service for Safety and Convenience
  • Growth Opportunity 2: Affordable IAM Parts for Higher Price Sensitivity
  • Growth Opportunity 3: Service for Used Cars

10. Key Conclusions
11. Appendix
  • Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
  • List of Exhibits
  • Legal Disclaimer