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Cystic Fibrosis - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2030

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    Report

  • 122 Pages
  • August 2021
  • Region: Global
  • GlobalData
  • ID: 5411826
Cystic fibrosis (CF) is an autosomal recessive disease characterized by pancreatic insufficiency and chronic endobronchial airway infection. The disease is caused by mutations in the CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. The most common mutation is the deletion of phenylalanine at codon 508 (known as F508del). Recent progress in the understanding of the disease, increased newborn screening, and discovery of disease-modifying drugs have revolutionized the treatment approach and improved the quality of life and life expectancy of CF patients.

Marketed drugs currently available for CF target multiple aspects of the disease. Inhaled antibiotics are used for the treatment of chronic lung infections, mucolytic agents are used for reducing the viscosity of the mucus in the lungs, pancreatic enzyme replacement therapies (PERTs) are used for the treatment of CF-related Exocrine pancreatic insufficiency (EPI), and CFTR modulators enhance CFTR function, targeting the underlying cause of disease. The disease-modifying nature of CFTR modulators has transformed the treatment paradigm for CF over the last decade, a trend that is likely to persist.

Over the past decade, there have been significant changes in the CF market due to the development of CFTR modulator therapies that target the underlying cause of CF. The most recently launched CFTR modulator, Vertex Therapeutics’ Trikafta/Kaftrio, is the first triple drug combination treatment and quickly became the gold standard soon after approval. However, the publisher is expecting the emergence of a next-generation triple-combination CFTR modulator, Vertex’s VX-121 + tezacaftor + VX-561 (deutivacaftor), to take over the market by the end of the forecast period.

The publisher projects that the global CF market, which comprises the seven major pharmaceutical markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Canada), will experience growth during the forecast period, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.5%, with sales growing from $8.2B in 2020 to $12.7B in 2030.

The greatest drivers of growth in the global CF market include:

  • The continued uptake of high-priced Trikafta/Kaftrio and label expansion to a growing population of CF patients
  • The launch of VX-121 + tezacaftor + VX-561 (deutivacaftor) in 2025 in the US and in 2026 in the 5EU, a high-priced next-generation triple combination.
  • Continued growth of the CF patient population due to overall population growth across the 7MM and increasing life expectancy of CF patients.

The main barrier to growth in the CF market include:

  • Slow reimbursement for novel CFTR modulators in some 5EU countries and Canada.
  • Decreased usage of symptomatic drug classes such antibiotics, mucolytics, and anti-inflammatory drugs due to overall improvements to lung health following use of Trikafta/Kaftrio.
  • Lack of novel products entering the CF market in the mucolytic or inhaled drug class.
  • Key unmet needs include the lack of curative therapies, the need for better antibiotic regimens to fight lung infections, limited choice in mucolytic products, and low patient adherence to treatment.

Key Questions Answered

  • Which unmet needs are limiting the treatment of CF in the 7MM?
  • What strategies can the pharmaceutical industry employ to increase treatment rates for CF? How should these strategies differ across different geographical markets?
  • What effect will the launch of generics have on the sales of branded agents?
  • What are the main R&D trends in the CF market and which companies are leading the way?
  • Are there major differences in the mechanisms of action used by therapies in late-stage versus early-stage clinical development?

Scope

  • Overview of CF including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines.
  • Topline CF market revenue, annual cost of therapy, and major pipeline product sales in the forecast period.
  • Key topics covered include current treatment and pipeline therapies, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting CF therapeutics sales in the 7MM.
  • Pipeline analysis: Comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global CF therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to Buy

The report will enable you to:

  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies, using a detailed overview of current pipeline products and technologies to identify companies with the most robust pipelines.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global CF therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global CF market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Track drug sales in the global CF therapeutics market from 2020-2030.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

Table of Contents

1 Cystic Fibrosis: Executive Summary
1.1 CF Transmembrane Conductance Regulator Modulators Will Drive Substantial Growth in the Cystic Fibrosis Market from 2020-2030
1.2 Vertex's Disease-Modifying Drugs Monopolize the CF Market
1.3 Marketed CFTR Modulators Will Provide Appropriate Treatment for the Majority of the CF Population, but the High Unmet Needs Will Remain
1.4 Opportunity for Pipeline Agents
1.5 What Do Physicians Think?
2 Introduction
2.1 Catalyst
2.2 Related Reports
2.3 Upcoming Reports
3 Disease Overview
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
3.1.1 Etiology
3.1.2 Pathophysiology
3.1.3 Biomarkers/Targets of Interest
3.2 Classification
3.3 Symptoms
3.4 Prognosis
3.5 Quality of Life
4 Epidemiology
4.1 Disease Background
4.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
4.3 Global and Historical Trends
4.3.1 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalence of CF
4.3.2 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases Adjusted for Underestimation
4.4 Forecast Methodology
4.4.1 Sources
4.4.2 Sources Not Used
4.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
4.4.4 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF
4.4.5 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF by Specific Mutation
4.4.6 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF with Chronic MRSA Infection
4.4.7 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases Adjusted for Underestimation
4.5 Epidemiological Forecast for CF (2020-2030)
4.5.1 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF
4.5.2 Age-Specific Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF
4.5.3 Sex-Specific Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF
4.5.4 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF with Specific Mutations
4.5.5 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF with Chronic MRSA Infection
4.5.6 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF Adjusted for Underestimation
4.5.7 Age-Specific Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF Adjusted for Underestimation
4.5.8 Sex-Specific Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF Adjusted for Underestimation
4.5.9 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF with Specific Mutations Adjusted for Underestimation
4.5.10 Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF with Chronic MRSA Infection Adjusted for Underestimation
4.6 Discussion
4.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
4.6.2 COVID-19 Impact
4.6.3 Limitations of Analysis
4.6.4 Strengths of Analysis
5 Disease Management
5.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview
5.1.1 Diagnosis
5.1.2 Treatment Guidelines and Leading Prescribed Drugs
5.2 KOL Insights on Disease Management
5.2.1 Earlier Diagnosis and More Treatment Options Have Led to a CF Patient Population with Milder Disease
5.2.2 Evaluation of Disease Severity
5.2.3 Treatment Approach
5.2.4 Transition from Pediatric to Adult Care
6 Competitive Assessment
6.1 Overview
7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Development of More Effective or Curative Therapies
7.3 Development of Chronic Lung Infection Therapies
7.4 Development of Mucolytic Therapies
7.5 Improvement of Treatment Compliance
8 R&D Strategies
8.1 Overview
8.1.1 Reformulation Strategies
8.1.2 CFTR Modulators and Disease-Modifying Therapies
8.1.3 Development of Anti-Inflammatory Drugs
8.2 Clinical Trials Design
8.2.1 Current Clinical Trials
8.2.2 CFTR Modulator Clinical Trials
9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development
10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis
10.1 Overview
10.2 Competitive Assessment
10.2.1 CFTR Modulators
10.2.2 Anti-inflammatory Agents
11 Current and Future Players
11.1 Overview
11.2 Deal-Making Trends
12 Market Outlook
12.1 Global Markets
12.1.1 Forecast
12.1.2 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues
12.2 US
12.2.1 Forecast
12.2.2 Key Events
12.3 5EU
12.3.1 Forecast
12.3.2 Key Events
12.4 Canada
12.4.1 Forecast
12.4.2 Key Events
13 Appendix
List of Tables
Table 1: CF: Key Metrics in the 7MM
Table 2: Onset of CF by Approximate Age
Table 3: Classification and Criteria of the CFTR Gene Mutations in CF
Table 4: Symptoms of CF
Table 5: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for CF
Table 6: Treatment Guidelines for CF
Table 7: Leading Treatments for CF, 2021
Table 8: CF Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2020-2030
Table 9: Key Events Impacting Sales for CF in the US, 2020?2030
Table 10: Key Events Impacting Sales for CF in the US, 2020?2030
Table 11: Key Events Impacting Sales for CF in Canada, 2020-2030
Table 12: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country
List of Figures
Figure 1: Global (7MM) Sales Forecast by Country for CF in 2020 and 2030
Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in CF During the Forecast Period
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that the Publisher Expects to Be Licensed for the Treatment of CF During the Forecast Period
Figure 4: CFTR Mutation Classes in CF
Figure 5: 7MM, Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalence of CF, Men and Women, All Ages, 2010-2030 (%)
Figure 6: 7MM, Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalence of CF Adjusted for Underestimation, Men and Women, All Ages, 2010-2030 (%)
Figure 7: Sources Used for Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF
Figure 8: Sources Used for Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF by Specific Mutation
Figure 9: Sources Used for Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF with Chronic MRSA Infection
Figure 10: Sources Used for Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF Adjusted for Underestimation
Figure 11: Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF, 7MM, Men and Women, All Ages, 2020
Figure 12: 7MM, Age-Specific Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF, Men and Women, 2020 (N)
Figure 13: 7MM, Sex-Specific Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF, All Ages, 2020 (N)
Figure 14: 7MM, Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF with Specific Mutations, Men and Women, All Ages, 2020 (N)
Figure 15: 7MM, Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF with Chronic MRSA Infection, Men and Women, All Ages, 2020 (N)
Figure 16: Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF Adjusted for Underestimation, 7MM, Men and Women, All Ages, 2020
Figure 17: 7MM, Age-Specific Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF Adjusted for Underestimation, Men and Women, 2020 (N)
Figure 18: 7MM, Sex-Specific Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF Adjusted for Underestimation, All Ages, 2020 (N)
Figure 19: 7MM, Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF with Mutations Adjusted for Underestimation, Men and Women, All Ages, 2020 (N)
Figure 20: 7MM, Registry-Based Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CF with Chronic MRSA Infection Adjusted for Underestimation, Men and Women, All Ages, 2020 (N)
Figure 21: Genetics of CF
Figure 22: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in CF
Figure 23: Overview of the Development Pipeline (Phase I and II) in CF
Figure 24: Key Late-Stage Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that the Publisher Expects to Be Licensed for CF in the 7MM During the Forecast Period
Figure 25: Competitive Assessment of Pipeline CFTR Modulators Benchmarked Against the SOCs, Kalydeco and Trikafta/Kaftrio
Figure 26: Competitive Assessment of the Pipeline Anti-inflammatory Drug, LAU-7b, Benchmarked Against the SOC, Azithromycin
Figure 27: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in CF During the Forecast Period
Figure 28: Global (7MM) Sales Forecast by Country for CF in 2020 and 2030
Figure 29: Sales Forecast by Class for CF in the US in 2020 and 2030
Figure 30: Sales Forecast by Class for CF in the 5EU in 2020 and 2030
Figure 31: Sales Forecast by Class for CF in Canada in 2020 and 2030

Companies Mentioned (Partial List)

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:

  • AbbVie
  • Chiesi
  • Genentech (Roche)
  • Gilead
  • Horizon Therapeutics
  • Laurent Pharmaceuticals
  • Nestle HealthScience
  • Pharmaxis
  • Teva
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals
  • Viatris (formerly Mylan)
  • Vivus Pharmaceuticals