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Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report 2022-2027

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    Report

  • 94 Pages
  • June 2022
  • Region: Indonesia
  • Idem Est Research
  • ID: 5412104

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • BizNet
  • EdgePoint
  • GoJek
  • Kabel MNC Play
  • MyRepublic
  • Telkom

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Indonesian telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G, digital infrastructure and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Digital Infrastructure (Fibre, Telecom Towers, Data Centres, Submarine Cables)
  • Telecom Tower Market Analysis and Forecast
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

Why You Should Buy this Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of the latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects, and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy, and market position of your competitors, partners, and clients via our Operators Profiles

The Indonesia Telecommunications Industry Report, 2022-2027 includes an overview of the Indonesian market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights, and key trends.

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • BizNet
  • EdgePoint
  • GoJek
  • Kabel MNC Play
  • MyRepublic
  • Telkom

1 Key Statistics
1.1 Indonesia’s Population
1.2 Indonesia’s Economy
1.3 Indonesia’s GDP
2 COVID-19 Impact
3 Overall Telecommunications Market 2015-2027
3.1 Market Overview
3.2 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue 2015-2021
3.3 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast 2020-2027
3.4 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure 2015-2027
3.4.1 Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend 2015-2021
3.4.2 Capex to Revenue Benchmark
3.4.3 Capex to GDP Benchmark
3.4.4 Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast 2020-2027
4 Telecommunications Operators Profile
4.1 Telkom Indonesia Profile
4.1.1 Telkom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.1.2 Telkomsel
4.2 Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison Profile
4.2.1 Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.2.2 Tri Indonesia
4.2.3 Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.3 XL Axiata
4.3.1 XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.4 Smartfren Profile
4.4.1 Smartfren RevenueEBITDA and Capex Mix
4.5 Link Net
4.5.1 Link Net RevenueEBITDA and Capex Mix
4.6 Other Players Profile
4.6.1 MNC Vision
4.6.2 BizNet
5 Mobile market
5.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast 2015-2027
5.1.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical 2015-2021
5.1.2 Mobile Subscribers Market Share 2015-2022
5.1.3 Indonesia Smartphone Share2022
5.1.4 Mobile Subscribers Forecast 2020-2027
5.1.5 Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G,3G,4G & 5G) Forecast 2020-2027
5.2 Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast 2015-2027
5.2.1 Historical Mobile Revenue 2015-2021
5.2.1 Mobile Revenue Market Share 2015-2021
5.2.2 Mobile Revenue Forecast 2020-2027
5.2.3 Mobile Subscribers ARPU 2015-2021
5.3 Spectrum Holdings
5.3.1 5G Development and Launches
5.3.2 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
5.3.3 Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
5.4 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
5.5 Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.1 Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.2 OpenSignal
5.6 Internet of Things (IoT)
6 Broadband Market
6.1 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical 2015-2021
6.2 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast 2020-2027
7 Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1 Fixed Digital Infrastructure
7.1.1 Palapa Ring Completed
7.1.2 FTTH - 30m premises to go
7.1.3 Submarine Cables
8 Indonesia Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
8.1 Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Analysis
2021
8.1.1 Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Overview
8.1.2 Indonesia Telecom Towers Background
8.2 Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
8.3 Indonesia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
8.3.1 Indonesia Telecom Towers and Rooftops Revenue Penetration Forecast 2020-2027
8.3.2 Regulatory Considerations
8.4 Mitratel Profile
8.4.1 Mitratel Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.5 Tower bersama Profile
8.5.1 Tower Bersama Revenue EBITDA and Towers 2015 - 2021
8.5.2 Tower Bersama Key Performance Indicators
8.6 Protelindo Profile
8.6.1 Protelindo Revenue EBITDA and Towers 2015 - 2021
8.6.2 Protelindo Key Performance Indicators
8.6.3 STP Telecom Profile (Now Protelindo)
8.6.4 STP Towers Key Performance Indicators (Historicalnow Protelindo)
8.7 Centratama Menara Profile
8.7.1 Centratama Menara Revenue EBITDA and Tower Statistics 2015 - 2021
8.7.2 Centratama Menara Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.8 IBS Towers Profile
8.8.1 IBS Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.9 Bali Tower Telecom Profile
8.9.1 Bali Tower Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.10 Tower Density Benchmark
9 Thematics / Opportunities
9.1 Consolidation Opportunities
9.2 Diversification Opportunities
9.3 New Telecoms Operating Model
9.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
9.4 5G Developments
9.4.1 5G Overview
9.4.2 5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
9.4.3 5G OpenRAN
9.4.4 Beyond 5G and Towards 6G
10 Telco Transaction Database11 Methodology12 Copyright Notice
List of Figures
Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Indonesia
Figure 2 -Revenue Profile Historical Mix (IDR bn) 2015 - 2021
Figure 3 - Telecommunications Market Revenue2021
Figure 4 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA2021
Figure 5 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share2021
Figure 6 - Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (IDR tn) 2020-2027
Figure 7 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark 2015-2021
Figure 8 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark 2015-2021
Figure 9 - Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend2000-2027
Figure 10 - Telkom Indonesia Revenue Mix -  2015-2021
Figure 11 - Telkom Indonesia Historical Revenue Mix 2015 - 2021 (IDR bn)
Figure 12 - Telkomsel Revenue Mix -  2015-2021
Figure 13 - Telkomsel Historical Revenue Mix 2015 - 2021 (IDR bn)
Figure 14 - Indosat Revenue Mix -  2015-2021
Figure 15 - Indosat Historical Revenue Mix 2015 - 2021 (IDR bn)
Figure 16 - Tri Indonesia Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%) 2015-2021
Figure 17 - XL Axiata Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%) 2015-2021
Figure 18 - Smartfren Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%) 2015-2021
Figure 19 - Link Net Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%) 2015-2021
Figure 20 - Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison 2015-2022
Figure 21 - Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison 2015-2021
Figure 22 - Mobile Net Adds (000’s) Comparison 2015-2021
Figure 23 - Mobile Subscribers Forecast 2020-2027
Figure 24 - Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G3G4G & 5G) Forecast 2020-2027
Figure 25 - Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison 2015-2021
Figure 26 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast (IDR trillion) 2020-2027
Figure 27 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU 2015-2027
Figure 28 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum Select Asia-Pacific Countries 2022
Figure 29 -Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data2017-2021
Figure 30 - Data Pricing Trends in the Asia Pacific (USD per GB per month) 2017-2021
Figure 31 - Spectrum available for IoT in Indonesia
Figure 32 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison 2015-2021
Figure 33 - Indonesia Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators 2015-2021
Figure 34 - Broadband Subscribers Forecast 2020-2027
Figure 35 - Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Share 2021
Figure 36 - Indonesia Telecom Towers Forecast 2020-2027
Figure 37 - Subscribers per Tower2 021
Figure 38 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 39 - 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 40 - Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 41 - 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 42 - Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 43 - Telecom Infra Project - OpenRAN Vision
List of Tables
Table 1 - Indonesia - Key Statistics
Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators 2015-2021
Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue 2020-20275
Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend 2015-2021
Table 5 - Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast 2020-2027
Table 6 - Historical Telkom Revenue & EBITDA 2015-2021
Table 7 - Telkomsel Revenue & EBITDA 2015-2021
Table 8 - Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix  2015-2021
Table 9 - Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix 2015-2021
Table 10 - XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix 2015-2021
Table 11 - Smartfren Revenue and EBITDA Mix 2015-2021
Table 12 - Link Net Revenue Segments
Table 13 - Historical Mobile Subscribers  2015-2021
Table 14 -Indonesia Mobile Subscribers Forecast 2020-2027
Table 15 - Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G3G4G & 5G) Forecast 2020-2027
Table 16 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue  2015-2021
Table 17 - Indonesia Mobile Service Revenue Forecast  2020-2027
Table 18 - Historical Mobile ARPU  2015-2021
Table 19 - Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
Table 20 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 21 - Historical Broadband Subscribers 2015-2021
Table 22 - Historical Broadband ARPU  2015-2021
Table 23 - Indonesia Broadband Subscribers Forecast 2020-2027
Table 24 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Indonesia
Table 25 - Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Analysis 2021
Table 26 - Indonesia Telecom Towers Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 27 - Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison (1 of 2)
Table 28 - Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison (2 of 2)
Table 29 - Indonesia Telecom Towers Transaction Database 2008-2021
Table 30 - Indonesia Telecom Towers and Rooftops Revenue Mobile Subscribers Penetration & ARPU Forecast 2020-2027
Table 31 - Mitratel Key Performance Indicators2021
Table 32 - Historical Tower Bersama RevenueEBITDA and Tower Statistics  2015-2021
Table 33 - Tower Bersama Key Performance Indicators2021
Table 34 - Historical Protelindo RevenueEBITDA and Tower Statistics 2015-2021
Table 35 - Protelindo Key Performance Indicators2021
Table 36 - STP Towers Key Performance Indicators 2020
Table 37 - Historical Centratama Menara RevenueEBITDA and Tower Statistics 2015-2021
Table 38 - Centratama Menara Towers Key Performance Indicator s2021
Table 39 - IBS Towers Key Performance Indicators 2021
Table 40 - Bali Tower Key Performance Indicators 2021
Table 41 - Technology Specifications (ADSL FTTNFibre 4G/LTE 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 42 - Telco Transaction Database 2008-2022

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • BizNet
  • EdgePoint
  • GoJek
  • Kabel MNC Play
  • MyRepublic
  • Telkom
Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance
Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. The publisher expects the Indonesian telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.   The publisher forecasts 5G mobile subscribers will represent 43.5% of all subscriptions by 2027 in Indonesia. 4G will represent about 50.6% of all connections while 2G and 3G will represent about 2% if not shut down earlier. Indosat and Telkomsel launched 5G in 2021 and take-up will ramp to an estimated 9m by the end of 2022, while the publisher forecasts just under 183m 5G subscribers by 2027 for the Indonesian market.   The Indonesian telecommunications market is a thriving mobile market with four large network operators, an incumbent fixed-line provider with near-monopoly and the overall market underpinned by strong economic fundamentals. Indonesia is among the fastest developing telecommunications market in the world, driven by growth in both mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions. The publisher forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow strongly in the 2020-25 period after a slow down in 2018. Fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase their household penetration.   Expanded coverage, greater affordability, service improvements, increased data usage and smartphone penetration are the main drivers of growth in the telecoms sector. The country continues to expand its fibre-optic network and 4G coverage, backed by strong investment in capital expenditure. Investment in the telecoms sector grew at a fast pace and momentum was maintained as expected in the 2020-25 period.   The publisher expects the overall telecoms market to grow strongly through to 2027 after a decline in 2018 due to the SIM registration regulation with overall market growth resuming through to 2027.

 

Capex Investments

The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2015 and 2021. The capital expenditure (Capex) from telecommunications operators is growing strongly as mobile operators build out their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand and increased smartphone take-up. The publisher expects Capex spending to grow between 2022 and 2027.  


Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

The mobile subscriber penetration rate fell in 2018 after the government implemented new requirements for SIM registration in May 2018. The publisher forecasts the growth to resume and accelerate again during the 2022-27 forecast period.   Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator. The publisher benchmarked mobile data pricing across 8 countries in the Asia Pacific region and found that Indonesia is lagging behind in terms of data download but we expect the country to catch up as 4G coverage is accelerating and smartphone penetration is increasing especially in regional areas.   According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Indonesian pricing is already fairly low when benchmarked against neighbouring countries.  


Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push

The publisher estimates the broadband subscribers' growth will be sustained by household growth and a reduction of the number of underserved premises previously not able to connect now served by the Internet but now served by FTTH services. The Indonesian fixed broadband market is growing at a double rate year on year and will continue over the 2021-2026 period with a growing appetite for high-speed data among the expanding middle-income class in Indonesia driving fixed broadband take-up and household penetration  


Thematics - Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / e-Commerce

 The long-envisioned Palapa Ring national broadband network is now completed and operational since the end of 2019. The US$1.3bn project incorporates eight different networks. The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.   Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.   Most telecommunications operators are in the heavy investments phase both in fixed and mobile segments, spending heavily upgrading their 4G network infrastructure. The publisher expects a wave of consolidation in Indonesia not before 2022-2023, as margins get squeezed further and a new Capex cycle kicking with 5G.   The increase in smartphone penetration made possible by the availability of low-cost devices has triggered growth in e-commerce, tapping into the potential of Indonesia’s emerging middle class with relatively high disposable income. GoJek, Tokopedia, Grab and Bukalapak are leading the pack with e-commerce, ride-sharing and mobile payments.
  • BizNet
  • Centratama
  • DigitalBridge
  • EdgePoint
  • FiberStar
  • Gihon
  • GoJek
  • IBS Towers
  • Indosat
  • Kabel MNC Play
  • Link Net
  • Mitratel
  • MyRepublic
  • Protelindo
  • Smartfren
  • Telkom
  • Telkomsel
  • Tokopedia
  • Tower Bersama
  • Tri Indonesia
  • XL Axiata

The publisher uses primary and secondary research as well as proprietary information sources to generate market analysis and forecasts for fixed and mobile services in terms of both subscribers and revenue. Interviews are conducted with key service providers in the region to determine current and potential market sizing as well as future service offerings. Information gathered through interviews is further cross-checked to validate the total market size.

The primary research is supplemented with a range of secondary source material, including related research, press releases, securities filings, media, Web-based materials, and trade publications.

Industry and population statistics are also leveraged for reference and to ensure consistency in the data collection. Extensive service provider primary and secondary research, together with the publisher's end-user research database, provides a strong basis for sizing and forecasting the market. The multiple reference points allow for validation of information provided by the service providers compared with that gathered from alternative sources.

Note: Forecasts are made in local currency, and no allowance is made for inflation. All numbers in this document may not be exact due to rounding.

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