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Australia Telecoms Industry Report - 2023-2028

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    Report

  • 108 Pages
  • September 2022
  • Region: Australia
  • Idem Est Research
  • ID: 5437881

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Australian telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G, digital infrastructure and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Digital Infrastructure (Fibre, Telecom Towers, Data Centres, Submarine Cables)
  • National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Telecom Tower Market Analysis and Forecast
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

Australia Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance

Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. The publisher  expects the Australian telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Australia has one of the most competitive and mature telecommunications markets in the world. The analyst forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2023-28 period while fixed broadband subscribers also expected to grow at a slightly lower average rate over the same period.

The publisher  forecasts the overall telecoms market bottomed out in 2021 as NBN subscriber payments to Telstra and Optus decline gradually as all Telstra’s copper and HFC services are migrated onto the NBN and market growth will resume from 2022 onwards.

Telstra’s share of the telecommunications revenue pie has been declining over the last 5 years and its EBITDA share is declining even faster as Telstra’s dominance in the fixed-line market is challenged with the migration onto the NBN.

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE AUSTRALIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of the latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

Table of Contents

1   Key Statistics
1.1  Australia’s Population
1.2  Australia’s Economy
1.3  Australia’s GDP

2    Overall Telecommunications Market, 2015-2028
2.1    Market Overview
2.2    Australia’s Race to Lead in 5G and Beyond
2.3    Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2015-2021
2.4    Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2021-2028
2.5    Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2015-2028
2.5.1  Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2015-2021
2.5.2   Capex to Revenue Benchmark
2.5.3   Capex to GDP Benchmark
2.5.4    Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2021-2028

3   Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1        Telstra Profile
3.1.1      Telstra Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.1.2      Telstra InfraCo
3.2        Optus Profile
3.2.1      Optus Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3        TPG Telecom Group Profile
3.3.1      TPG Telecom Group and EBITDA Mix
3.3.2      Historical TPG Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3.3      Vodafone Profile
3.3.4      Historical Vodafone Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.4        Vocus Profile
3.4.1      Vocus Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.5        Superloop Profile
3.6        Uniti Profile
3.6.1      Uniti + Opticomm + Velocity
3.7        Aussie Broadband Profile

4   Australia Mobile Market
4.1        Australia Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2015-2028
4.1.1      Australia Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
4.1.2      Australia Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2016-2022
4.1.3      Australia Smartphone Share, 2022
4.1.4      Australia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2021-2028
4.1.5      Australia Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2021-2028
4.2        Australia Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2015-2028
4.2.1      Historical Australia Mobile Revenue, 2015-2021
4.2.2      Australia Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2016-2022
4.2.3      Australia Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2021-2028
4.3        Mobile Coverage
4.4        Spectrum Holdings
4.4.1      Spectrum Regulation
4.4.2      5G and Other Spectrum Auctions
4.4.3      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.4.1      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.5        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.6        Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.2      OpenSignal
4.7        Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO)
4.8        Internet of Things (IoT)

5    Broadband Market
5.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2015-2022
5.2        Fixed Download Data Trends
5.3        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2021-2028

6    Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
6.1        Fixed Digital Infrastructure
6.1.1      Overview of the National Broadband Network
6.1.2      NBN Scope
6.1.3      Legislative Framework for the NBN
6.1.4      Regulatory Framework
6.1.5      Wholesale Only & Uniform Pricing
6.1.6      NBN Industry Implications
6.1.7      NBN Implementation
6.1.8      NBN Financials - NBN Corporate Plan Review 2021-2024
6.1.9      NBN Market Share - 2022
6.1.10     NBN Build
6.1.11     NBN Speeds
6.1.12     NBN Speeds Mix Compared to New Zealand
6.1.13     $50bn Later and Australia is Still a Broadband Backwater
6.1.14     NBN Business Segment - Enterprise Product Threat and Opportunity
6.2        Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting
6.3        Submarine Cables

7   Australia Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
7.1        Australia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2021
7.1.1      Australia Telecom Towers Market Overview
7.1.2      Australia Telecom Towers Background
7.2        Australia Tower Competitive Landscape Comparison
7.3        Mobile Coverage
7.4        Australia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
7.4.1      Australia Telecom Towers Forecast, 2020-2027
7.4.2      Regulatory Considerations
7.5        Telstra InfraCo (Amplitel)
7.5.1      Telstra InfraCo Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.6        Optus Profile
7.6.1      Optus Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.7        Australia Tower Network (ATN) Profile
7.7.1      Australia Telecom Network Key Performance Indicators
7.8        Axicom (Now Part of aTN)  Profile
7.8.1      Axicom Key Performance Indicators
7.9        National Broadband Network (NBN) Profile
7.9.1      NBN Key Performance Indicators
7.10      BAI Communications Profile
7.10.1     BAI Communications Key Performance Indicators

8  Thematics / Opportunities
8.1        Consolidation Opportunities
8.2        Diversification Opportunities
8.3        New Telecoms Operating Model
8.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
8.4        5G Developments
8.4.1      5G Overview
8.4.2      5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
8.4.3      5G OpenRAN
8.4.4      Beyond 5G and Towards 6G

9   Telco Transactions Database10  Methodology11  Copyright Notice
List of Figures
Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Australia
Figure 2 -Revenue Profile Historical Mix (AUD m), 2015 - 2021
Figure 3 -EBITDA Profile Historical Mix (AUD m), 2015 - 2021
Figure 4 - Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2021
Figure 5 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2021
Figure 6 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2021
Figure 7 - Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (AUD m), 2021-2028
Figure 8 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2015-2021
Figure 9 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2015-2021
Figure 10 - Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2028
Figure 11 - Telstra Revenue Mix - 2015-2021
Figure 12 -Telstra EBITDA Mix (AUD m) - 2015-2021
Figure 13 - Telstra Historical Revenue Mix, 2015 - 2021 (A$m)
Figure 14 - Optus Revenue Mix - 2015-2021 (AUD m)
Figure 15 - Optus Historical Revenue Mix, 2015-2021 (AUD m)
Figure 16 - TPG Telecom Group Revenue Profile, 2019-2021
Figure 17 - TPG Telecom Group Revenue Mix - 2019-2021 (AUD m)
Figure 18 - TPG Revenue Profile, 2014-2019
Figure 19 - Vodafone Revenue Profile, 2014-2019
Figure 20 - Australia Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 21 - Australia Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 22 - Mobile Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 23 - Australia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2021-2028
Figure 24 - Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2021-2028
Figure 25 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU (A$), 2016-2028
Figure 26 - Australia Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 27 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2021
Figure 28 - Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2021
Figure 29 - Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2021
Figure 30 - MVNO Share of the Mobile Market, 2021
Figure 31 - MVNO Subscribers (k), 2015-2021
Figure 32 - Spectrum available and IoT Landscape in Australia
Figure 33 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2022

Figure 34 - Australia Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2016-2022
Figure 35 - Fixed Broadband Monthly Download Data, 2008-2021
Figure 36 - Australia Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2021-2028
Figure 37 - NBN Architecture Overview
Figure 38 - NBN Corporate Plan Financials, 2010-2024
Figure 39 - NBN Corporate Plans (CP) Cash Flow Projections Comparison
Figure 40 - NBN Subscribers Share -2022
Figure 41 - Broadband Migration to NBN Nearly Completed
Figure 42 - NBN homes Passed by Technology Forecast (k)
Figure 43 - NBN Services by Speed
Figure 44 - UFB Services by Speed
Figure 45 - Ookla Speed Test Results (Mbps) - July 2022
Figure 46 - Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2021
Figure 47 - Wireless-Only Homes, 2014-2021
Figure 48 - Australia Telecom Towers Market Share, 2021
Figure 49 - Australia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 50 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 51 - 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 52 - Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 53 - 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 54 - Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 55 - Telecom Infra Project - OpenRAN Vision

List of Tables
Table 1 - Australia - Key Statistics
Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2015-2021
Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2021-2028
Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2015-2021
Table 5 - Historical Telstra Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2015-2021
Table 6 - Telstra InfraCo Asset Portfolio, 2018-2020
Table 7 - Optus Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2015-2021
Table 8 - TPG Telecom Group Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2019-2021
Table 9 - TPG Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
Table 10 - Vodafone Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
Table 11 - Vocus Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2015-2021
Table 12 - Superloop Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2017-2021
Table 13 - Uniti & Opticom Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2018-2021
Table 14 - Aussie Broadband Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2018-2021
Table 15 - Australia Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2016-2022
Table 16 - Australia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2021-2028
Table 17 - Australia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2021-2028
Table 18 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2015-2021
Table 19 - Historical Mobile ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 20 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2021-2028
Table 21 - Mobile Coverage & Reach - 2022
Table 22 - Historical of Spectrum Auctions and Costs
Table 23 - Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
Table 24 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 25 - Examples of MVNOs and their Wholesale Providers
Table 26 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2016-2022
Table 27 - Historical Broadband EBITDA Margin, 2016-2022
Table 28 - Historical Broadband ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 29 - Australia Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2021-2028
Table 30 - NBN Technology Mix
Table 31 - Telstra and Optus Estimated EBITDA Margin
Table 32 - Australia Business Broadband Segmentation, 2022
Table 33 - Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2021
Table 34 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Australia
Table 35 - Australia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2021
Table 36 - Australia Telecom Towers Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 37 - Australia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
Table 38 - Mobile Coverage & Reach - 2022
Table 39 - Australia Telecom Towers and Rooftops, Towers per Capita, Tower Revenue, Mobile Subscribers & Penetration and ARPU Forecast, 2020-2027
Table 40 -Telstra InfraCo Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 41 -Optus Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 42 -ATN Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 43 - Axicom Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 44 - NBN Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 45 - BAI Communications Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 46 - Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 47 - Telco Transaction Database, 2015-2022




Samples

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Companies Mentioned

  • AGL
  • Amplitel
  • ATN
  • Aussie Broadband
  • Exetel
  • Foxtel
  • NBN
  • Optus
  • Superloop
  • Telstra
  • TPG
  • Uniti Group
  • Vodafone
  • Vocus

Methodology

The publisher uses primary and secondary research as well as proprietary information sources to generate market analysis and forecasts for fixed and mobile services in terms of both subscribers and revenue. Interviews are conducted with key service providers in the region to determine current and potential market sizing as well as future service offerings. Information gathered through interviews is further cross-checked to validate the total market size.

The primary research is supplemented with a range of secondary source material, including related research, press releases, securities filings, media, Web-based materials, and trade publications.

Industry and population statistics are also leveraged for reference and to ensure consistency in the data collection. Extensive service provider primary and secondary research, together with the publisher's end-user research database, provides a strong basis for sizing and forecasting the market. The multiple reference points allow for validation of information provided by the service providers compared with that gathered from alternative sources.

Note: Forecasts are made in local currency, and no allowance is made for inflation. All numbers in this document may not be exact due to rounding.

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