Global Legal Cannabis Sales to Hit US$105 billion by 2026
Report Overview
In 2022, the global sales of CBD, medical and adult-use cannabis amounted to US$45 billion and could be worth more than US$101 billion by 2026.
Cannabis liberalisation is accelerating, with an increasing number of States and countries legalising cannabis for adult-use and medical purposes
The financial climate for cannabis operators remains tough, as impacts from the COVID pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war slow the flow of capital to the industry
Supply chain
The supply chain continues to diversify away from the strongholds of Canada and the Netherlands. The main importing markets in the world are currently Israel, Germany and Australia, despite increasing domestic cultivation in each.
Wholesale prices for cannabis products continue to be highly volatile, and regionally dependent. Prices of exports from Canada to Europe fell 20% from $2,827 to $2,355 presumably due to an increase in global supply from 2019 to 2022.
Retail prices in the US are also declining drastically due to increasing supply. In Michigan for example, retail prices have decline to a fifth of their 2020 levels as of Q3 2022.
Finance
Overall 2022 was a bad year for cannabis finance, with over a 50% reduction in the Alternative Harvest cannabis ETF.
Up to October 2022, capital raises are down over 65% from 2021 levels and M&A volumes are down 80%.
Some of these declines have to do with right-sizing and a financial environment squeezed both by the COVID pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war. Still, many cannabis companies continue to be severely undervalued.
Legislation
Legalisation of adult-use cannabis is accelerating across the world. Only Canada and Uruguay allow for fully legal sales but they will soon be joined by others.
Several countries are in the process of implementing legalisation including Mexico, the Netherlands and Switzerland, with governments in several other countries stating a clear intention to legalise and who have just begun their preparations including Germany, the Czech Republic, Costa Rica and Colombia.
Costa Rica and Panama introduced their medical cannabis regulations during the year. In Europe, Spain legalised the use of magistral cannabis while the Ukrainian government stated their intention to legalise. The Malaysian government has similarly stated their intention to legalise in the same vein as occurred in Thailand.
Social issues
Programs for restorative justice are progressing in most regions where cannabis is being liberalised. Expungement programmes for crimes of possession of cannabis are being implemented at the Federal level in the US but also globally, in Thailand and as planned in Germany, for example.
The issue of protectionism vs free global trade of cannabis is becoming more important, as governments balance control of supply, capitalising on the fiscal opportunity in their own country while respecting International sentiment in favour of free trade.
Cannabis continues to take a heavy toll on the environment, requiring large quantities of energy and water. Many industry groups are now developing programmes to guide the industry towards a more sustainable future.
Continents
A deep dive into the cannabis markets within each of the following continents:
- North America (USA & Canada)
- Europe
- Latin America
- Asia
- Oceania
Expert Interviews
- Oren Lebovitch, The Israeli Cannabis Magazine
- Patrick McCartan, Regennabis
- Crystal Millican, Cookies
Key Findings
- Legalisation of high THC cannabis for non-medical purposes will soon be a reality in several countries around the world, with some nations like Germany and Colombia recently announcing their intention to legalise.
- The legalisation of medical cannabis did not progress as quickly in 2022 as in previous years, with just a few countries declaring their intention to legalise for medical purposes.
- In Latin America, both Costa Rica and Panama adopted their medical cannabis laws for the first time in 2022.
- In Europe, the Spanish government legalised the magistral use of medical cannabis for select conditions through the country's public health system in June 2022. In the same month, the Ukrainian Minister of Health, Viktor Liashko, expressed his intent to legalise cannabis for medical purposes as part of the country's efforts to treat trauma as a result of the war.
- In Asia, in August 2022, a spokesperson for the Malaysian Ministry of Health stated the country's intention to legalise medical cannabis, taking inspiration from the system previously set up in Thailand.
- In October 2022, the US President, Joe Biden, announced an amnesty for people imprisoned for simple cannabis possession. This act will benefit thousands of individual prisoners, but its main purpose is that it is a symbolic act for the benefit of American states and the international community showing that the US now favours at least the decriminalisation of adult-use cannabis.
- As of late 2022, only Uruguay, Canada and a handful of states in the US have fully legalised the commercial sale of cannabis for adult-use, with more states soon to vote on adult-use legalisation measures.
- There is a strong feeling among many advocates and industry stakeholders that we are currently at the beginning of a zeitgeist when it comes to the commercial legalisation of adult-use cannabis globally.
Conclusions
Liberalisation of cannabis across the world is proceeding at what seems like an unstoppable pace. The two leading western countries in the world are now taking concrete steps towards liberalisation of adult-use cannabis with the pro-legalisation message being heard by governments the world over. In the birthplace of the war on drugs, the US government is now formally recognising that prohibition is not a viable policy for the control of cannabis, and this is being echoed in the Bundestag in Germany. Stepwise progress was made during 2022 in every corner of the globe. Colombia and Costa Rica are now moving towards adult-use legalisation, the first licences for cultivation are being granted in Morocco, the Ukraine is legalising cannabis for the treatment of trauma, Malaysia is now beginning the process of legalisation following in Thailand's footsteps.
However, progress is not guaranteed, and there is still significant pushback on liberalisation from groups the world over, as seen by recent events in Hong Kong, the Uk and Brazil. The ability of cannabis patients to use safe and regulated products, the freedom of nonviolent consumers to return home from prison and the opportunity for societies at large to benefit from these developments continues to depend on the work being done by patients, academics advocates and industry groups and regulators in developing and defending these rights These pioneers deserve every support the industry can offer them. The author will continue to report on these developments and inform all stakeholders how best to navigate the opportunities and risks in this most exciting period for cannabis reform.
