Power Sector in India 2023-2028

The Indian power sector is undergoing a significant change that has redefined the industry outlook. The power industry’s future in India is bright, and sustained economic growth continues to drive electricity demand in the country. The private sector in the power industry in India generates 49% of the country’s thermal power, whereas States and the Centre generate 25% and 26.0%, respectively.

Market Insights:

The Government of India has set an ambitious goal of installing 500 GW non-fossil-fuel energy capacity by 2030. As of September 30, 2023, we have installed 186 GW capacity from non-fossil sources, which accounts for about 43.75% of our total installed capacity. The last nine years has witnessed the fastest growth in renewable energy sector among all large economies; installed capacity has more than doubled and renewable energy generation has also increased significantly. We have attracted over 80 billion dollars in investment, including substantial FDI.

According to data from the Ministry of Power, India's power consumption stood at 130.57 Billion Unit (BU) in April 2023. The Government of India has set electricity generation (including renewable energy) target for the year FY 2024 at 1,750 BU. i.e. growth of around 7.2% over actual generation of 1,624.158 BU for the FY 2023.

COVID-19 impact analysis:

In 2022, India's power demand grew about 8% - or at nearly double the pace of the Asia Pacific region - to more than 149.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) from the previous year. And in the first two months of 2023, demand jumped 10% from a year ago. A heatwave and easing of COVID-19 curbs drove power demand higher in the first and second half of 2022. Erratic weather and a jump in agricultural activity were among the most prominent reasons behind the high growth in the second half of last year. In northern Haryana and Telangana in the south, unexpected dry spells contributed to higher demand from agricultural consumers of electricity during November and December 2022, which was based on assessments by grid operators in different states.

Moreover, higher demand from industry in Andhra Pradesh and tech employees returning to office in India's silicon valley Bengaluru in Karnataka state also drove power use up. Furthermore, in Kerala, the live streaming of World Cup matches potentially contributed to a 4.1% hike in peak demand.