Electric Vehicles in the United States - Market and Technology Forecast to 2030

• What are EVs?
• What’s the difference between a BEV and a hybrid?
• Are EVs pretty much like my regular car?
• What are the pros and cons of EVs?
• How many choices of EVs are there?
• Will the US actually be producing 50% EVs by 2030 as President Biden has mandated?
• Are EVs really economical?
• Are many EVs being sold?
• What is the long-term market for EVs?

These questions and many others are answered in detail in this report.

This report is about electric cars in the United States, in all their flavors. Like many things we think of as new, electric cars are actually rather old. Their origins go back to the beginnings of anything that could be called a ‘car’ in the 1800s. Now, one of the most reported technology/consumer goods items in America is the topic of electric vehicles (EVs). Unfortunately, a great deal in the popular press is reported by people with little or no background in electric vehicles. Much of the writing is from reporters that are generalists and report on various topics as they come up. Also, a lot of the reporting comes from ‘car guy’ reporters, who are standard vehicle experts, but who are not familiar with the vocabulary or technology of electric vehicles. While the author of this report has been a car guy all his life, he also brings his electrical engineering (BS EE, PE) background and many years as a researcher to the report.

This report intends to provide an unbiased but critical view of the subject. It will spend a good bit of time understanding the components of an electric vehicle, the terminology involved, and include a good look at the technologies underlying the field. We will also develop complete economic models and use them to compare the various alternatives on an economic basis.

After understanding the subject, the report will examine the pressures on this market, both pro, and cons. As with much in our lives today, this subject has regrettably become politicized. We will acknowledge that politicization but we will try not to let political opinions cloud our comments.

A common misconception about EVs is ‘free transportation’ (much like the misconception of ‘free power’ from windmills). One section will present a series of economic models for EVs to shed light on the actual comparative costs. These models will try to understand the financial issues involved in owning EVs compared to ICE (internal combustion engine vehicles – our standard car). In addition, the models will provide estimates of the penalty or benefit from owning an EV vs. owning an ICE.

We will examine the car market in the US and look at the positives and negatives for the EV market and its history. Based on this examination, the report will develop a complete set of forecasts to 2026 and to 2030 for the market. In addition, we will perform sensitivity analysis to look at how the results could change if various assumptions prove false. These forecasts will encompass the entire car (including light trucks) US market and the market history.