Small Arms - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025-2031)

The small arms market size is expected to grow from USD 10.25 billion in 2025 to USD 10.75 billion in 2026, and is forecasted to reach USD 13.41 billion by 2031 at a 4.53% CAGR over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Type (Pistols, Revolvers, Rifles, Machine Guns, Shotguns, and Other Types), Caliber (5. 56 Mm, 6. 8 Mm, 7. 62 Mm, 9 Mm, 12. 7 Mm, and Other Calibers), Operation (Manual, Semi-Automatic, and Fully Automatic), End User (Military and Civil and Law Enforcement), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Small Arms Market Trends and Insights

Increased Defense Procurement from Modernization Programs

Global militaries are deploying next-generation platforms capable of defeating Level IV armor at ranges exceeding 600 meters, a capability beyond the reach of legacy 5.56 mm weapons. Canada has allocated up to CAD 1 billion (approximately USD 740 million) for 65,401 rifles under its Close Area Suppression Weapon and C7 programs, with deliveries scheduled to begin in 2026. In India, defense production for FY 2024-25 reached INR 1.54 lakh crore (approximately USD 18.5 billion), driven by the production of the AK-203 and 7.62 mm UGRAM rifles. These large-scale contracts are accelerating the shift toward 6.8 mm and 7.62 mm calibers, indicating a structural change in demand. Follow-on procurement by NATO allies and Middle Eastern customers is anticipated as interoperability and lethality requirements align. This procurement pipeline ensures multi-year revenue visibility for prime contractors and their component suppliers.

Growing Civilian Demand for Personal-Protection Firearms

Concealed-carry permits reached 21.46 million in 2024, alongside 4.3 million first-time gun owners in 2023. While permit numbers declined as more states adopted constitutional carry laws, unit sales remained above pre-pandemic levels, reflecting sustained demand. Consumers are increasingly opting for compact, optics-ready pistols, such as the Glock 43X and SIG P365, which combine sub-compact frames with 10-to 15-round magazines. First-time gun owners are younger and more diverse, expanding the market for accessories and training services. This trend has led to higher sales of holsters, red-dot optics, and personal-defense ammunition. The civilian segment provides consistent cash flow, offsetting the cyclical nature of military budgets.

Stricter End-Use Monitoring And Export Control Regulations

The US Directorate of Defense Trade Controls enforces ITAR licensing and Blue Lantern post-shipment checks, increasing compliance costs for exporters. SIG Sauer’s USD 11 million penalty for improper exports has heightened scrutiny, prompting companies to expand their legal and audit teams. The EU’s updated Common Position requires human rights and diversion risk assessments, adding administrative burdens. For smaller manufacturers, these overhead costs can represent several percentage points of revenue, effectively limiting their export opportunities. Delays in compliance processes can also jeopardize delivery timelines, undermining buyer confidence and opening the door to competing bids.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Surge in Competitive Shooting and Hunting Sports Memberships
• Shift Toward Lightweight, Modular Firearm Platforms
• Reduced Financing Due To ESG-Aligned Divestment Trends

Segment Analysis

Pistols accounted for 32.89% of the small arms market share in 2025, driven by increased adoption for concealed carry and standardization as duty weapons among law enforcement agencies. Glock holds over 65% of US law enforcement contracts, while SIG Sauer's P320 Modular Handgun System, with its interchangeable grip modules and slide lengths, boosts aftermarket revenue. Revolvers continue to lose market share, and shotguns remain specialized for breaching and less-lethal applications. Assault rifles are expected to grow at a 5.12% CAGR, surpassing the overall small arms market, supported by programs such as India's AK-203 and the US's 6.8 mm XM7 rollout. Their higher unit value and volume potential position them as significant revenue drivers for prime contractors.

Upgrades to assault rifles also stimulate demand for optics, suppressors, and training kits, expanding the accessory ecosystem. Weapon-specific accessories often account for 20-30% of life-cycle costs, thereby reinforcing platform dependency. Law enforcement and military buyers standardize spare parts inventories and armorer certifications around selected models, increasing switching costs. As legacy fleets age, procurement cycles align, enhancing visibility of the order book through 2031. Marketing efforts emphasize modular rails and ambidextrous controls, which reduce training time and encourage broader adoption.

The 9 mm caliber held a 27.64% share of the small arms market in 2025, supported by NATO standardization and a large installed base. The FBI’s 2014 return to 9 mm validated improved terminal ballistics, prompting additional agency transitions. However, 6.8 mm rounds are projected to grow at a 7.85% CAGR, driven by the US Army’s adoption of 6.8 × 51 mm cartridges for the XM7 and XM250. If NATO adopts a common 6.8 mm standard, ammunition suppliers may face retooling costs but benefit from long-term demand visibility.

The transition to 6.8 mm introduces logistical challenges, including heavier cartridges that reduce soldier loadouts and increase costs by 30-40% compared to 5.56 mm. Interim dual-caliber inventories complicate training and maintenance. Despite these challenges, the performance advantages against advanced armor make 6.8 mm rounds appealing for frontline units. Civilian adoption remains limited due to higher ammunition costs, though precision-rifle enthusiasts show early interest, suggesting potential crossover as prices stabilize. Manufacturers with vertically integrated ammunition production are well-positioned to capture value as the caliber shift progresses.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Type
  • Pistols
  • Revolvers
  • Rifles
    • Assault Rifles
    • Sniper Rifles
    • Others
  • Machine Guns
    • Light Machine Guns
    • Heavy Machine Guns
  • Shotguns
  • Other Types
• By Caliber
  • 5.56 mm
  • 6.8 mm
  • 7.62 mm
  • 9 mm
  • 12.7 mm
  • Other Calibers
• By Operation
  • Manual
  • Semi-automatic
  • Fully Automatic
• By End User
  • Civil and Law Enforcement
    • Civilian Protection
    • Hunting and Sporting
    • Other End Users
  • Military
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Germany
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Middle East
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Saudi Arabia
      • Rest of Middle East
    • Africa
      • South Africa
      • Rest of Africa

Geography Analysis

North America maintained a 34.98% share of the small arms market in 2025, supported by 518 million cumulative FBI background checks and 21.46 million active concealed-carry permits in 2024. Canada's CAD 1 billion (USD 0.73 billion) Close Area Suppression Weapon procurement and Mexico's restrictive civilian firearm laws highlight contrasting national approaches. In the US, constitutional carry statutes have reduced permitting revenues but increased unit sales, sustaining aftermarket demand despite ESG divestment pressures from funds such as CalPERS.

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to achieve a 5.38% CAGR through 2031. Key drivers include India's INR 1.54 lakh crore (USD 18.5 billion) defense production milestone, the Philippines' self-reliance legislation, and South Korea's expanding rifle exports. Japan's introduction of the Howa Type 20 and Australia's Thales EF88 Austeyr reflect efforts to enhance sovereign capabilities. Meanwhile, China's Type 191 upgrade advances domestic self-sufficiency but faces limited export opportunities due to geopolitical tensions.

Europe, South America, and the Middle East and Africa collectively account for the remaining market share. In Europe, the updated Firearms Directive has tightened civilian firearm regulations, while defense spending has increased as countries replenish stocks depleted by aid to Ukraine. In South America, Brazil's civilian firearm ownership increased by 100% between 2019 and 2022, although recent political changes have introduced uncertainty. Middle Eastern markets are heavily investing in local production, with Saudi Arabia's SAMI and the UAE's EDGE consolidating manufacturing under the mandates of Vision 2030. Israel Weapon Industries exports to over 30 countries, further strengthening its market presence in the region. In Africa, the market remains fragmented; South Africa's Denel faces financial challenges, while Egypt continues to operate AK-pattern assembly lines for domestic use.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.
• Sturm, Ruger & Co., Inc.
• SIG SAUER, Inc.
• FN Browning Group
• Fabbrica d’Armi Pietro Beretta S.p.A.
• Heckler & Koch GmbH
• GLOCK Gesellschaft m.b.H.
• Colt’s Manufacturing Company LLC
• Browning International S.A.
• Kalashnikov Concern JSC
• Barrett Firearms Manufacturing Inc.
• Benelli Armi S.p.A.
• Česká zbrojovka a.s.
• Taurus Holdings, Inc.
• Israel Weapon Industries (IWI) Ltd.
• STEYR ARMS GmbH
• Armscor International, Inc.
• Springfields, Inc.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support