The analyst expects the construction industry in Poland to shrink by 2.5% in real terms in 2024 and 0.5% in 2025, owing to subdued investor and consumer confidence amid high interest rates and high construction costs, coupled with continued weakness in the residential sector amid falling residential building permits. According to the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), the total number of permits issued for residential building declined by 18.9% year-on-year (YoY) in 2023, following an overall annual fall of 12.6% in 2022. Moreover, the average housing price index also grew by 7.4% YoY in the first three quarters of 2023, preceded by an overall annual growth of 11.8% in 2022, according to the Eurostat.
The construction industry is however expected to rebound at an average annual growth rate of 4.2% from 2026 to 2028, supported by investments in transport and renewable energy infrastructure projects. The government aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 70% by 2030, compared to 2015 levels and net zero by 2050. The Polish transmission system operator Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne (PSE) is planning to add 45GW of solar power capacity to the grid by 2034. Further support for the construction industry’s growth in the forecast period will be provided by the government’s aim of modernizing and expanding its railway infrastructure. The government will invest PLN80 billion ($18.3 billion) in railway projects, during 2021-2027.
In late February 2024, the European Commission formally approved the release of PLN634.1 billion ($145.2 billion) in funds to Poland; this funding was cut off in 2022 due to rule of law concerns. Poland can now access PLN351.8 billion ($80.6 billion) in cohesion funds. The commission also issued a positive assessment of Poland's first application for payments from the National Recovery Plan (NRP). As a result, Poland will be paid PLN28.8 billion ($6.7 billion) in the first tranche under the NRP. The positive assessment must still be approved by the Economic and Financial Committee, which consists of representatives of the EU countries, the European Commission, central banks, and the European Central Bank. Although the commission has a month to approve this, the decision is most likely to be taken sooner.
The construction industry is however expected to rebound at an average annual growth rate of 4.2% from 2026 to 2028, supported by investments in transport and renewable energy infrastructure projects. The government aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 70% by 2030, compared to 2015 levels and net zero by 2050. The Polish transmission system operator Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne (PSE) is planning to add 45GW of solar power capacity to the grid by 2034. Further support for the construction industry’s growth in the forecast period will be provided by the government’s aim of modernizing and expanding its railway infrastructure. The government will invest PLN80 billion ($18.3 billion) in railway projects, during 2021-2027.
In late February 2024, the European Commission formally approved the release of PLN634.1 billion ($145.2 billion) in funds to Poland; this funding was cut off in 2022 due to rule of law concerns. Poland can now access PLN351.8 billion ($80.6 billion) in cohesion funds. The commission also issued a positive assessment of Poland's first application for payments from the National Recovery Plan (NRP). As a result, Poland will be paid PLN28.8 billion ($6.7 billion) in the first tranche under the NRP. The positive assessment must still be approved by the Economic and Financial Committee, which consists of representatives of the EU countries, the European Commission, central banks, and the European Central Bank. Although the commission has a month to approve this, the decision is most likely to be taken sooner.
The analyst's Construction in Poland - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2028 (Q1 2024) report provides detailed market analysis, information, and insights into Poland’s construction industry, including :
- Poland’s construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type, and construction activity
- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in Poland’s construction industry
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.
Scope
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Poland. It provides :
- Historical (2019-2023) and forecast (2024-2028) valuations of the construction industry in Poland, featuring details of key growth drivers.
- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants
Reasons to Buy
- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using the analyst's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.
- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.
- Understand the latest industry and market trends.
- Formulate and validate strategy using the analyst's critical and actionable insight.
- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.
- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.
Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary2 Construction Industry: At-a-Glance6 Construction Market Data
3 Context
4 Construction Outlook
5 Key Industry Participants
7 Appendix
List of Tables
List of Figures
