Nigeria E-commerce - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The Nigeria e-commerce market is expected to grow from USD 9.35 billion in 2025 to USD 10.49 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 18.68 billion by 2031 at 12.23% CAGR over 2026-2031.

Rapid smartphone adoption, stronger payment rails and a wider logistics footprint continue to expand digital retail penetration in both urban and semi-urban centres. Mobile commerce now accounts for more than four-fifths of online orders, while social platforms have become critical discovery and checkout venues. Intensifying competition among local and foreign platforms is encouraging investments in same-day fulfilment, embedded finance and richer SKU depth. At the same time, margin management remains a central theme because of Naira volatility, higher last-mile costs and an evolving tax regime for non-resident digital sellers. Market participants that secure dependable logistics partners, diversify currency exposure and leverage data-driven merchandising are best positioned to capture upside within the Nigeria e-commerce market.

Nigeria E-commerce Market Trends and Insights

Surge in Social Commerce Adoption via WhatsApp & Instagram

Social shopping has shifted from a supplementary marketing tool into a priority sales engine for merchants in the Nigeria e-commerce market. Roughly 36.8 million social users dedicate close to four hours daily to platforms that now embed frictionless checkout. Businesses exploit these high-engagement venues to shorten conversion paths, increase order frequency and reduce reliance on formal storefronts. Real-time messaging builds consumer trust by enabling product verification before purchase. As a result, social commerce transaction value is projected to nearly double from USD 2.04 billion in 2025 to USD 3.96 billion in 2030, outpacing overall market growth. Platforms are also opening monetisation avenues for content creators, adding a community-led influence layer that supports cross-selling.

Rapid Expansion of Mobile-Money Agent Network for Pay-on-Delivery Conversion

Agent banking has evolved into an essential last-mile enabler for online retail, especially beyond tier-one cities. National initiatives targeting an eight-fold increase in female agents are widening consumer touchpoints for digital transactions. Agents convert cash-on-delivery orders into electronic settlements, lowering fraud risk and accelerating cash cycles for merchants. Larger corporates are introducing “agent-as-a-service” models, providing e-commerce platforms with on-demand distribution capacity. With cash still representing 55% of point-of-sale value, these networks help migrate shoppers into formal digital rails, ultimately enlarging addressable demand for the Nigeria e-commerce market.

Urban Congestion & Poor Address Systems Inflate Last-Mile Costs

Traffic bottlenecks lengthen delivery windows by several hours and raise fulfilment charges by up to 30% versus structured markets. Informal addressing leads to failed drops and costly re-routes. Operators are piloting address validation APIs, geo-tagged pick-up lockers and community delivery agents to cut mis-delivery. Micro-fulfilment centres closer to demand clusters reduce travel distance but push up fixed overheads, limiting adoption by smaller vendors. Collaboration between state authorities and postal services aims to standardise addressing, which would materially unlock efficiency across the Nigeria e-commerce market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Government National Broadband Plan Targeting 70% Coverage by 2025
• Logistics Tech Start-ups Enabling Same-Day Fulfilment in Lagos & Abuja
• High Card-Not-Present Fraud & Charge-backs Escalate Merchant Costs

Segment Analysis

The B2C arm dominates current value flows, holding 86.40% Nigeria e-commerce market share in 2025. Even so, the B2B channel is scaling at an 18.14% CAGR as wholesalers and informal retailers digitise procurement. Leading start-ups process hundreds of millions of USD in annual transactions, leveraging embedded credit to improve stock rotation for corner shops that still drive most consumer purchases. Service expansion into inventory analytics, demand forecasting and supplier financing makes these platforms integral to the fast-moving consumer goods chain.

Digitalisation compresses procurement costs by roughly one-fifth and cuts delivery lead times from days to hours. As mobile penetration deepens, rural shop owners increasingly use voice-enabled ordering interfaces offered in local languages. Financial-service partners underwrite inventory loans based on real-time sales data, reducing default risk. Over the forecast horizon, scale economics, coupled with deeper monetisation of data, should sustain double-digit growth and progressively rebalance overall revenue composition within the Nigeria e-commerce market.

Smartphones generated 82.30% of orders in 2025 and are projected to grow at a 12.95% CAGR. The Nigeria e-commerce market size for mobile reached USD 7.66 billion in 2025 and is set to exceed USD 15.9 billion by 2031. High-speed 4G and impending 5G roll-outs further reinforce mobile’s primacy. Desktop traffic, while shrinking as a share, remains important for research-intensive or high-value purchases such as appliances.

Short-form video, live commerce and in-app messaging are optimised for handheld devices, obliging merchants to prioritise responsive design, compressed imagery and concise copy. Voice search and vernacular chat-bots improve accessibility for first-time shoppers. Concurrently, connected-TV commerce and smart-speaker ordering are emerging in affluent homes, indicating a gradual pivot toward omnichannel engagement. Platforms that maintain design parity across screens are positioned to capture incremental wallet share as device ecosystems proliferate.

The Nigeria E-Commerce Market Report is Segmented by Business Model (B2C, B2B), Device Type (Smartphone / Mobile, Desktop and Laptop, Other Device Types), Payment Method (Credit / Debit Cards, Digital Wallets, BNPL, Other Payment Method), B2C Product Category (Beauty and Personal Care, Consumer Electronics, Fashion and Apparel, Food and Beverages, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

List of companies covered in this report:

• Jumia Technologies AG
• Konga Online Shopping Limited
• SLOT Systems Limited
• Omniretail Technologies Limited
• Jiji Africa B.V.
• Amazon.com Inc.
• AliExpress - Alibaba Group Holding Limited
• PayPorte Global Systems Limited
• Chrisvicmall
• Ajebomarket Limited
• Obeezi Ecommerce Limited
• Seunman Ventures Limited
• Soso Games Limited
• BonAmour Nigeria Limited
• Zikel Cosmetics International Limited
• Vendease Africa Limited
• Mall for Africa Inc.
• Kara Nigeria Online Limited
• OList Nigeria Marketplace

Additional benefits of purchasing this report:

• Access to the market estimate sheet (Excel format)
• 3 months of analyst support