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Global Coach and Bus Growth Outlook, 2022

  • Report
  • 98 Pages
  • June 2022
  • Region: Global
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 5633615

Strong Growth for Zero-Emission Buses in Europe and North America but Global Bus Market to Shrink Due to China

The COVID-19 pandemic continued to have a global impact in 2021, with transit and bus operators facing financial constraints as daily commuting declined and people shifted to personalized transport to avoid infections. However, with vaccination drives underway, ridership is likely to increase in 2022. India and Latin America are candidates for strong growth in 2022, although volumes may be lower than 2019 levels. In developing countries, most of the population working in the informal sector is highly dependent on public transport for daily commute. They will drive the growth of the transit bus segment.

The size of the global bus market in 2021 was approximately 167,218 units. It is estimated to decline to about 165,819 units in 2022, shrinking at a negative year-over-year rate of 0.8%. This decline will predominantly be due to China, where there is a shift in passenger preference from buses to high-speed rail, aviation, and private passenger vehicles, along with a rise in shared mobility, including two-wheeler and carsharing.

Zero-emission powertrains in transit buses have gained momentum across Europe, North America, India, and Latin America. The EU Clean Vehicle Directive for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption. In Latin America, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Ecuador, and Panama are developing an electromobility strategy to promote zero-emission buses in public transportation. Furthermore, the ZEBRA project will drive the adoption of electric powertrain across various municipalities. In India, FAME II is driving alternate powertrain adoption in intracity and intercity routes across the country and various State Transport Units (STUs). In North America, the Low or No Emission Program, Clean Transit, and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) will increase the funding for zero-emission buses. Newer business models in the electric bus market aim to reduce the initial cost gap between electric and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) buses. The separation of ownership and operation of electric buses, battery leasing, and maintenance will drive the adoption of electric buses.

Geopolitical crises along with high inflation will encourage most central banks to raise interest rates, derailing the recovery. In H1 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices, weaker external trade, and supply-chain difficulties arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict will restrain growth. The slowdown in China, impacting foreign trade and financial markets, will also partially weigh on growth. Traditional OEMs in various regions are expanding their product portfolios to include battery-electric and fuel-cell buses in the transit segment. In the bus market, there are strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new participants striving to enter the market. A relatively lower total cost of ownership of electric buses compared to diesel buses and the push for developing charging infrastructure will drive the adoption of electric buses across different regions.

Table of Contents

1 Growth Environment
  • Top Commercial Vehicle Trends in 2022
  • Key Highlights of the Global Bus Industry
  • Snapshot by Region in 2022
  • Regional Comparison of Progress in Technologies
  • Estimated Growth in 2022
  • Top Predictions for 2022
2 Strategic Imperatives
  • Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
  • The Strategic Imperative 8™
  • The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Bus Industry
  • Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
3 Growth Environment and Scope - Global Bus Industry
  • Research Scope
  • Product and Technology Segmentation
4 Global Economic Outlook
  • Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2021
  • Top 5 Global Economic Predictions for 2022
  • Global GDP Growth
  • 2022 Scenario Analysis - Quarterly Global Growth
  • 2022 Scenario Analysis - Assumptions
  • Protracted War Leads To Further Global Growth Downgrade; GCC Sees Strong Growth Uptick
  • Recent Upward and Downward Oil Price Pressures from Demand-side Weakness and Proposed EU Ban on Russian Oil
  • What to Expect Ahead?
  • Top 5 Global Predictions For 2022 - Macroeconomic Policies and Developments
  • 2022 Growth Opportunities - Top 3 Opportunities by Region
  • 2022 Regional Trends - Risks and Policy Direction
5 Outlook for Buses
  • Forecast Overview
  • Global Transit and Coach Bus Forecast by Region
  • 2022 BUS Powertrain Technology Forecast
6 North America
  • Regional Snapshot
  • North America - Race to Zero Targets
  • Quarterly Bus Sales - North America
  • Powertrain Technology Split
  • 2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance
  • OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
7 Europe
  • Regional Snapshot
  • Europe
  • Quarterly Bus Sales - Europe
  • Powertrain Technology Split
  • 2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance
  • OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
8 China
  • Regional Snapshot
  • Quarterly Bus Data - China
  • Powertrain Technology Split
  • 2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance
  • OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
9 India
  • Regional Snapshot
  • India Key Cities with Electrification Targets
  • Quarterly Bus Data - India
  • Powertrain Technology Split
  • 2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance
  • OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
  • Latin America
  • Regional Snapshot
10 Latin America
  • Quarterly Bus Data - Latin America
  • Powertrain Technology Split
  • 2021 Bus OEM Sales Performance
  • OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
11 Advance Driver Assist Systems in Buses
  • Overview of Driver Assistance Systems
  • Regulations - Driver Assistance Systems
  • Driver Assistance Systems - Favourability by Applications
12 Connected Buses
  • Bus Telematics Market in NA and EU - Transit and Coaches
  • Bus Telematics Market in NA and EU - Services Ladder
  • Transit and Coaches segment - Favourability by Applications
13 Transit Bus Total Cost Of Ownership - Europe
  • Parameters and Assumptions - Transit Buses, Europe
  • Diesel, NG, Electric, Fuel Cell Transit Bus Operational CPM Comparison
  • Operational Cost PER Mile - Diesel, Electric, NG, Fuel Cell*
14 Growth Opportunity Universe
  • Growth Opportunity 1 - Move Toward Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation Through Electrification
  • Growth Opportunity 2 - Development in Advanced Connectivity and Safety Features in Commercial Mobility
  • Growth Opportunity 3 - Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for Fuel-Cell buses Across Segments and Different Use Cases
15 Appendix
  • Abbreviations and Acronyms
  • List of Exhibits
  • Legal Disclaimer