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2022/2023 World Military Unmanned Aerial Systems Market Profile & Forecast

  • Report
  • January 2023
  • Region: Global
  • Teal Group
  • ID: 5685195

The Most Significant Catalyst to this Market Has Been the Enormous Growth of Interest in UAVs by the US Military

In terms of worldwide military budgets, the unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) segment continues to see growth, although annual growth has moderated when compared to a decade ago. The unclassified sector will continue to increase over the next decade, by about 41%, from current annual spending on RDT&E and procurement of about $13.2 billion in FY23 to about $18.7 billion in FY32 (a CAGR of 3.9%). If operations and maintenance expenditures were to be added, these totals would be greater.

This growth is being driven by the continued adoption of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) worldwide. Over the next decade, unclassified US procurement will grow modestly. The big issue for the US drone sector is the extent of secret “black” drone programs.

Growth will increasingly shift towards international markets as more militaries adopt the lessons of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine and incorporate UAVs into their forces. The introduction of specially built unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAVs) also promises to drive growth over the next decade.

Research Coverage

This annual sector study allows clients to identify lucrative potential business opportunities in the increasingly dynamic international military UAS market. It contains a wealth of timely intelligence and analysis on the systems, as well as requirements on a country-by-country basis.

Features include:

  • 10-Year Market Forecasts - Covering R&D and procurement for the overall market and, as well as program and country breakouts. (Spreadsheets are included)
  • Expert Analysis - A cogent outlook and rationale for what will be hot over the next decade.
  • Air Vehicles - Development histories, specifications, functional descriptions, manufacturers, funding and evaluations.
  • Sensors - Electro-optic, infrared, synthetic aperture radar, electronic warfare, SIGINT, and multi- and hyperspectral systems.
  • Requirements - Future requirements are examined for each country likely to be a player in this market.
  • Competitors - Initiatives of roughly 60 key companies: product offerings, investment activities, acquisitions and important developments.

 

Table of Contents

1. Executive Overview
  • The Market Outlook
  • World UAS Budget Forecast (excluding US classified budget)
  • World UAS Budget Forecast (including provisional US classified budget)
  • World Production Forecast by Type
  • World UAV Production Forecast by Region
  • Study Parameters
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Cost Evaluation
  • Military UAS Profile
  • Civil UAVs
  • The Numbers
  • Mini-UAV Production Forecast by Region
  • Small Tactical UAV Production Forecast by Region
  • Tactical UAV Production Forecast Summary by Region
  • Naval UAVs Production Forecast Summary by Region
  • MALE UAV Production Forecast Summary by Region
  • HALE UAV Production Forecast Summary by Region
  • UCAV Production Forecast Summary by Region
  • Civil Government, Commercial & Consumer UAVs
2. The US UAS Market
  • The Market Outlook
  • Past as Prologue
  • US Department of Defense UAV Funding History
  • DoD UAV Categories
  • US Military UAV Inventory Trends
  • US UAV Inventory (FY17)
  • US DoD UAV Budget Forecast
  • US UAV Production Forecast
  • Program Profiles
  • US Micro/Mini UAVs
  • US Navy/Marine Corps RQ-21 Blackjack STUAS
  • RQ-7A Shadow/Future Tactical UAS
  • RQ-8 Fire Scout VTUAV
  • US Marine UAV Programs
  • US Cargo UAV Programs
  • MQ-1C Grey Eagle/MQ-9 Reaper
  • Air Force Next Generation UAS (NGUAS)
  • MQ-25 Stingray (CBARS)
  • RQ-4 Global Hawk
  • UCAV (Skyborg/Attritable Aircraft)
  • European UAS Market
  • Market Overview
  • Current European Military Programs
3. European UAV Production Forecast by Type
  • Country Profiles
  • Armenia
  • Austria
  • Azerbaijan
  • Belgium
  • Belarus
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Denmark
  • Estonia
  • European Union/NATO
  • Finland
  • France
  • Georgia
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Hungary
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine
  • United Kingdom
4. Rest of the World UAS Market
  • Market Overview
  • Middle East
  • Middle East UAV Production Forecast by Type
  • Bahrain
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Jordan
  • Kuwait
  • Lebanon
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Syria
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Africa
  • African UAV Production Forecast by Type
  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Botswana
  • Cameroon
  • Ethiopia
  • Ivory Coast
  • Kenya
  • Libya
  • Mauritania
  • Morocco
  • Niger
  • Nigeria
  • Senegal
  • South Africa
  • Sudan
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Yemen
  • Zambia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Asia-Pacific UAV Production Forecast by Type
  • Australia
  • Bangladesh
  • Brunei
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Japan
  • Kazakhstan
  • Korea, North
  • Korea, South
  • Malaysia
  • Myanmar (Burma)
  • New Zealand
  • Pakistan
  • Philippines
  • Singapore
  • Sri Lanka
  • Taiwan
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam
  • The Americas
  • Americas UAV Production Forecast by Type
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • Mexico
  • Panama
  • Venezuela
5. Electro-Optical/Infrared Sensors
  • Market Overview
  • High Altitude Endurance (HALE) EO/IR Sensors
  • USAF Global Hawk Basic and Enhanced Integrated Sensor Suite (EISS)
  • USAF Global Hawk Follow-On EO/IR Sensors
  • USAF Next-Generation HALE EO/IR Sensor Suite
  • Navy MQ-4C Triton MTS-B & AN/DAS-X Sensor Suite
  • USAF Classified Stealthy UAV EO/IR Sensors (RQ-170 & RQ-180)
  • Coast Guard Deepwater Endurance UAV EO/IR Sensor
  • Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) EO/IR Sensors
  • Predator & Predator B/Reaper AN/AAS-52 MTS-A & AN/DAS-1/4 MTS-B (Multi-spectral Targeting
  • System) & Future MALE EO/IR Sensor
  • US CBP/USCG Guardian/Predator B AN/DAS-1(V) MTS-B (Multi-Spectral Targeting System)
  • Canadian RPAS MALE UAV L3 WESCAM MX-20/25 EO/IR Sensor
  • USAF MQ-X/MQ-Next Gen/Next Gen Stealthy MALE UAV EO/IR Sensor
  • MDA Airborne Tracking and Targeting System (ATTS)
  • US Army Next Generation Airborne ISR Sensors and Platforms
  • US Army Gray Eagle AN/DAS-2(V) Common Sensor Payload (CSP)
  • Predator XP EO/IR Sensors
  • FLIR Systems, Inc. (FSI) Star SAFIRE 380HD
  • Lockheed Martin INFIRNO
  • Collins Aerospace (was Goodrich) DB-110 & MS-110 EO/IR Pods
  • Rafael RecceLite & Recce-U EO/IR Pods
  • US Navy MALE TERN (Tactically Exploited Reconnaissance Node) Sensors
  • US Marine Corps Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) UAS Expeditionary (MUX) EO/IR Sensors 281
  • Wide FOV (WFOV) EO/IR Sensors
  • USAF Reaper Gorgon Stare & Classified WFOV EO/IR Sensors
  • US Army/USAF UAV ARGUS-IS
  • USAF ARGUS-IR
  • Predator C Avenger Wide Field of View (WFOV) Sensor
  • Logos Technologies Redkite & LEAPS & Kestrel & WAMI Sensors
  • Sentient Vision Systems ViDAR WAMI Systems
  • US Marine Corps RQ-21A Blackjack Group III UAS Wide Area Persistent Surveillance (WAS) Sensors 292
  • US Marine Corps RQ-7 Shadow Wide Focal Plane Array Camera (WFPAC “Wolfpack”)
  • US Marine Corps RQ-7 Shadow WASPS (Wide Area Surgical and Persistent Surveillance)
  • AWARE (Advanced WFOV Architectures for Image Reconstruction and Exploitation)
  • Hyperspectral EO Sensors
  • Global Hawk SPIRITT & USAF Hyperspectral Systems
  • USAF Predator ACES Hy Hyperspectral Imager
  • USAF Reaper CERBERUS Hyperspectral Imager
  • US Army RQ-7 Shadow AURORA & Navy/Army Hyperspectral Systems
  • US Marine Corps RQ-21A Blackjack Group III UAS Hyperspectral Sensors
  • UCAV EO/IR Sensors
  • USAF Classified Stealthy SEAD/Strike UCAV EO/IR Sensors
  • USAF LCAAT/Skyborg UCAV EO/IR Sensors
  • US Navy MQ-25A Stingray CBARS & UCLASS & UCAS-D EO/IR Sensors
  • Tactical UAV EO/IR Sensors
  • US Navy/US Coast Guard MQ-8B/C Fire Scout EO/IR Sensors
  • US Army FTUAS (Future TUAS) EO/IR Sensors
  • US Army/USMC RQ-7 Shadow V2 MX-10 EO/IR Sensors
  • US Army/USMC RQ-7 Shadow V1 POP 200/300
  • US Army Hunter Raven Eye II/MOSP
  • Collins Aerospace (was Goodrich) SWIR (Short-Wave IR) Sensors
  • US Navy & Army MRMUAS & MRMP EO/IR Sensors
  • Small Tactical UAV EO/IR Sensors
  • US Navy/USMC RQ-21A Blackjack/Integrator Alticam EO/IR Sensors
  • ScanEagle Alticam EO and IR Sensors
  • ScanEagle ViDAR “Optical Radar”
  • FLIR Systems, Inc. (FSI) StormCaster EO/IR Sensor (SkyRaider & SkyRanger UAVs)
  • FLIR Systems, Inc. (FSI) Cooled Neutrino MWIR Thermal Camera Cores
  • Gremlins and “Swarming” Small UAV EO/IR Sensors
  • US Special Operations Command NightEagle EO/IR Sensor
  • Mini-UAV EO/IR Sensors
  • AeroVironment Raven & Wasp & Puma Mantis EO/IR Sensors
  • US Army Long-Range Reconnaissance and Surveillance (LRSS) UAV EO/IR Sensors
  • US & Available International Mini-UAV EO/IR Sensors
  • Air Force Desert Hawk (was Sentry Owl) EO Sensors
  • RQ-11 Raven Photon IR Sensor
  • Micro/Nano Air Vehicle (NAV) EO/IR Sensors
  • US Army Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR) sUAS (Small UAS) EO/IR Sensors (Quadcopters)
  • Nano Air Vehicle (NAV) EO/IR Sensors
  • FLIR Systems, Inc. (FSI) Lepton EO/IR Cameras
6. Synthetic Aperture Radars
  • Market Overview
  • SAR Technology
  • SAR Market
  • SAR Program Forecasts
  • Market Shares
  • High Altitude Endurance (HALE) UAV Radars
  • USAF Global Hawk AN/ZPY-2 MP-RTIP
  • NATO “Phoenix” Global Hawk AGS/MP-RTIP
  • USAF Global Hawk “HISAR”
  • USAF Global Hawk Follow-On SAR
  • Next-Generation HALE UAV SAR
  • US Navy MQ-4C Triton AN/ZPY-3 Multi-Function Active Sensor (MFAS)
  • USAF Classified Stealthy ISR UAV SARs (RQ-170 & RQ-180 & B-21)
  • USCG Deepwater Endurance UAV ISAR
  • Medium Altitude Endurance (MALE) UAV Radars
  • USAF Reaper & Predator XP AN/APY-8 Lynx SAR & Future MALE SAR
  • US CBP Predator B AN/APY-8 Lynx SAR
  • USAF Reaper (Lynx Upgrade) Dismount Detection Radar (DR)
  • US CBP/USCG Guardian SeaVue SAR
  • Predator B/Guardian/MALE Future Small Maritime Radar
  • USAF MQ-X/MQ-Next Gen/Next Generation Stealthy MALE UAV Radar
  • US Army Next Generation Airborne ISR Sensors and Platforms
  • US Army Gray Eagle JADO SAR/GMTI
  • US Army Gray Eagle-Extended Range (GA-ER) Eagle Eye MMR SAR
  • US Army Gray Eagle AN/ZPY-1 Starlite SAR
  • US Army Predator/Sky Warrior ER/MP Lynx II SAR
  • US Army Gray Eagle ER/MP VADER Radar
  • US Marine Corps Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) UAS Expeditionary (MUX) MOSAIC Radar
  • Leonardo/UTC Aerospace (UTAS) “TacSAR” Pod (UAV)
  • “ASARS-3” (Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar System)
  • USAF Reaper Dismount Detection Radar (DDR)
  • US Army Gray Eagle TRACER
  • MB SAR (Multi-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar)
  • UCAV Programs
  • USAF Classified Stealthy SEAD/Strike UCAV Radars
  • USAF LCAAT/Skyborg UCAV Radars
  • US Navy MQ-25A Stingray CBARS & UCLASS & UCAS-D Radars
  • Airborne Sense-And-Avoid Radars (ABSAAs)
  • Due Regard Radar (DRR) & Detect and Avoid (DAA) Avionics Systems
  • US Navy Triton Air-to-Air Radar Sub-System (AARSS)
  • USAF Common Airborne Sense & Avoid (C-ABSAA)
  • US Army Ground-Based Sense & Avoid (GBSAA)
  • European Defense Agency (EDA) MIDCAS Sense-and-Avoid Radar
  • Tactical UAV Programs
  • US Navy MQ-8B/C Fire Scout SARs & Other Tactical UAV Radars
  • US Army RQ-7 Shadow SAR
  • Army A160 FORESTER FOPEN SAR
  • Magnetic Anomaly Detectors (MADs)
  • MAD-XR (Magnetic Anomaly Detection Extended Role)
  • Small Tactical/Mini/Nano UAV Programs
  • US Navy/Marine Corps RQ-21A Blackjack/Integrator Group III SAR/MTI (ImSAR NSP-5 UWB &
  • AN/PDY-2 SPLIT ACES Nano-SAR/MTI)
  • ScanEagle NanoSAR & Leonardo SAR Systems
  • miniSAR
  • microSAR
  • PicoSAR
  • MiniSAR
7. SIGINT & Electronic Attack (EA) Systems
  • Market Overview
  • Endurance UAV SIGINT & EA Programs
  • USAF Global Hawk/HALE & Predator/Reaper/MALE ASIP (Airborne Signals Intelligence Payload)
  • USAF Global Hawk Hyperwide COMINT
  • USAF Global Hawk LR-100 RWR/ESM/ELINT
  • Navy MQ-4C Triton AN/ZLQ-1 ESM System & Follow-On SIGINT & Future Triton SIGINT Suite
  • USAF Classified Stealthy UAV ESM/EA Systems (RQ-170 & RQ-180 & TR-X & B-21)
  • US Marine Corps Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) UAS Expeditionary (MUX) EW/SIGINT
  • Sensors
  • Army Tactical SIGINT Payload (TSP) & Follow-On & Future MALE UAV SIGINT System
  • Reaper Advanced Radar Detection System (ARDS) ELINT Pod
  • Reaper/Gray Eagle AN/ALR-69A Radar Warning Receiver (RWR)/ESM Pod
  • US Army Next Generation Airborne ISR Sensors and Platforms
  • Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle JADO SIGINT (ELINT & COMINT & RWR)
  • Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle Modular Multi-Function Electronic Warfare (MFEW) Pod
  • Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle CEASAR/NERO COMINT Electronic Attack Pods
  • US Army MQ-5B Hunter Green Dart SIGINT System
  • Pandora Electronic Warfare (EW) System (MALE)
  • USAF DEACON Electronic Attack Pod
  • UCAV SIGINT & EA Programs
  • USAF Classified Stealthy SEAD/Strike UCAV Electronic Attack (EA) System
  • USMC UCAV Electronic Attack (EA)
  • USMC UAV Electronic Attack (EA) Standoff Jammers (AN/ALQ-99 & AN/ALQ-249 NGJ)
  • US Navy MQ-25A Stingray CBARS & UCLASS SIGINT & Electronic Attack (EA)
  • Navy UCAS-D SIGINT
  • Early US Air Force/Navy UCAV Electronic Warfare Systems
  • Tactical/Mini/Nano UAV SIGINT & EA Programs
  • Overview
  • US Army RQ-7 Shadow SIGINT Systems
  • USMC RQ-7 Shadow Software Reprogrammable Payload (SRP)
  • RQ-7B Shadow SIGINT Pod
  • US Navy MQ-8C Fire Scout SIGINT/EW Pod
  • DARPA CONCERTO (CONverged Collaborative Elements for RF Task Operations)
  • US Special Operations Forces (SOF) Tactical/Mini-UAV SIGINT Sensor
  • Pandora Electronic Warfare (EW) System (Small UAV)
  • “NanoSIGINT” (Tactical/Small Tactical UAV)
  • USMC AN/ALQ-231(V) Intrepid Tiger Electronic Warfare (EW) Pod
  • US Navy/Marine Corps RQ-21A Blackjack/Integrator Group III AN/DSY-4 Spectral Bat SIGINT Payload
  • US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) MEUAS III Small Tactical SIGINT/ELINT Sensors
  • US Army RQ-20 Puma Mini-UAV SIGINT Sensors
  • US Marine Corps Raven/Puma Group I Mini-UAV SIGINT Payloads
  • International UAV SIGINT Programs
  • Euro Hawk ISIS/Pegasus Wide Area SIGINT System
  • Ultra Electronics Australia Predator B Electronic Warfare (EW) Payloads
  • UK Watchkeeper SIGINT: Soothsayer
  • Xtender/FlyingFish Satellite Phone SIGINT System
  • TRC 274 & TRC 6200
  • Top Scan
  • Skyfix SIGINT Suite
  • EL/K-7071 COMINT/DF & EL/L-8385 ESM/ELINT
  • SPS-65V5 Modular EW/SIGINT Suite
  • Skyfix COMINT/DF
8. C4I Systems
  • Market Overview
  • System Types
  • Analyst's Evaluation
  • Data Link Programs
  • Global Hawk (EQ-4) Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN)
  • Global Hawk Block 30/40 C4I Systems
  • Predator B Agile Condor AI Computing Architecture
  • Predator B/MALE Network Centric Communications Pod (NCCP)
  • US Marine Corps Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) UAS Expeditionary (MUX) C4I Sensors
  • MUM-T (Manned-Unmanned Teaming) & VUIT-2
  • NATO Mode 5 IFF for UAVs
  • USMC RQ-7 Shadow Software Reprogrammable Payload (SRP)
  • RQ-7 Shadow Forward Airborne Secure Transmissions and Communications (FASTCOM)
  • US Marine Corps Raven/Puma Group I Mobile Ad-Hoc Network (MANET)
  • Next-Generation Scalable UA Mission Command System
  • Tactical Control System (TCS) & UAV Operating Systems
  • Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T)
  • JTIDS and MIDS
  • Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS)
  • USAF Tactical Data Links (TDL)/Link-16
  • US Navy Tactical Data Links (TDL)/Link-16
  • US Army Tactical Data Links (TDL)/Link-16
  • EPLRS & SADL
  • Improved Data Modem (IDM)
  • CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability)
  • Common Data Link (CDL) & Tactical Common Data Link (TCDL)
  • Network Tactical Common Data Link-Network (TCDL-N)
  • Tactical Common Data Link-Network (TCDL-N)
  • Communications Data Link System (CDLS)
9. Military UAS Company Profiles
  • Aeronautics Ltd.
  • AeroVironment Inc.
  • Airbus Defence & Space (formerly European Defence and Space Co.)
  • Aurora Flight Sciences
  • Aviation Industry Corp of China (AVIC)
  • BAE Systems
  • Baykar Makina
  • Bell Textron
  • The Boeing Co.
  • CAE Inc.
  • China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp.
  • Dassault Aviation
  • Denel Pty. Ltd.
  • Diehl Defence GmbH & Co. KG
  • DJI Innovations
  • Elbit Systems Ltd.
  • EMT Ingenieurgesellschaft
  • General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.
  • Griffon Aerospace
  • Honeywell International Inc.
  • Insitu Inc.
  • Intra Defense Technologies
  • Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd.
  • Kaman Aerospace Corp.
  • Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd
  • Korean Air Aerospace Business Division
  • Korea Aviation Technologies
  • Kratos Defense and Security Solutions Inc.
  • L3Harris Technologies
  • Leidos Holdings Inc.
  • Leonardo (formerly Finmeccanica)
  • Lockheed Martin Corp.
  • MacDonald, Dettwiler, and Associates (MDA) Ltd.
  • Northrop Grumman Corp.
  • Parrot SA
  • Piaggio Aerospace
  • Raytheon Technologies Corp
  • Rolls-Royce
  • Safran
  • Saudi Arabian Military Industries
  • Schiebel Elektronische Geraete GmbH
  • Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation
  • Skydio
  • Stark Aerospace, Inc.
  • Swift Engineering, Inc.
  • Teledyne FLIR (formerly FLIR Systems, Inc.)
  • Teledyne Technologies Inc.
  • Textron Systems Unmanned Systems
  • Thales
  • Turkish Aerospace Industries
  • Uconsystem Co. Ltd.
  • UMS Skeldar
  • VTG
Appendix 1
  • US DoD 10-Year UAV Funding History Summary
  • RDT&E by Service
  • Procurement by Service
Appendix 2
  • US DoD Prime Contracts

Executive Summary

Now, for the seventh year, the analyst has separated all civil government and commercial UAVs into a separate study in recognition of the strong potential for the future as airspace begins to open worldwide.

Please note that in the tables and charts “procurement” and “production value” are two different, but related numbers. Procurement, covered in the budget forecasts here, represents the annual amount of production funding included in a country’s annual defense budget, usually on a fiscal-year basis. Production value, covered in the numerous tables in this study, represents the value of UAV systems delivered during a calendar year. In rough terms, the funds “procured” during one-year result in “delivered" units the following year or two after.

The most significant catalyst to this market has been the enormous growth of interest in UAVs by the US military, tied to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the general trend towards information warfare and netcentric systems. UAVs are a key element in the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) portion of this revolution, and they are expanding into other missions as well with the advent of hunter-killer UAVs. The reason for the slow-down in US growth has been the decline of US unclassified procurement over the past decade with the end of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US military currently has the world’s largest and most sophisticated drone fleet, with the rest of the world only beginning to catch up.

This research finds that the US will account for 71.9% of the unclassified R&D spending on UAV technology over the next decade, and about 34% of the unclassified procurement through the forecast decade. These US UAV funding shares for R&D and procurement represent slightly smaller shares of the market compared to defense spending in general. The US accounts for about 75% of total worldwide R&D spending and 35% of procurement spending, according to the analyst's International Defense Briefing forecasts.

These percentages change significantly when adjustments are made for US classified UAV development and procurement funding. The value of these “black” programs can only be surmised. With these assumptions, the US accounts for 81.3% of the world R&D on UAVs and 47.8% of the procurement.

This difference is due to the heavier US investment in cutting-edge technologies and the marked lag-time in such research and procurement elsewhere, especially major aerospace centers such as Europe. This follows trends in other cutting-edge technologies observed over the past decade by analysts in such areas as precision-guided weapons, information and sensor technology, and military application of space systems.

A tangible example of the “black” UAV budget in the US is the RQ-170 Sentinel program which only came to light when one of the stealth drones came down in Iranian territory. Recent revelations about the RQ-180 provide another example. 

The analyst expects that the sales of UAVs will follow recent patterns of high-tech arms procurement worldwide, with the Asia-Pacific area representing the second largest market, followed by Europe. Indeed, the Asia-Pacific region may represent an even larger segment of the market, but several significant players in the region, namely Japan and China are not especially transparent about their plans compared to Europe. As in the case of many cutting-edge aerospace products, Africa and Latin America are expected to be very modest markets for UAVs.

Some warnings are needed when viewing the summary tables and charts here. There appear to be wide swings and dips in unit acquisition over the forecast decade, that is not matched by similar swings in the production value. This is primarily due to the volatile mini-UAV market, which represents exceptionally large numbers of air vehicles even though unit costs are extremely low compared to other UAVs, especially the endurance types. This forecast expects a drop in US mini-UAV acquisition as combat operations wind down in Iraq and Afghanistan, which has a significant effect on unit numbers, though not on dollar values. It is also important to note that the analyst is not yet including forecasts for quadcopters, or very small and inexpensive micro-UAVs. In many cases, these are being obtained off-the-shelf from the commercial market, and the unit cost is too low for any form of tracking. In addition, the large numbers likely to be acquired tend to grossly distort the unit forecast numbers.

Companies Mentioned

  • Aeronautics Ltd.
  • AeroVironment Inc.
  • Airbus Defence & Space (formerly European Defence and Space Co.)
  • Aurora Flight Sciences
  • Aviation Industry Corp of China (AVIC)
  • BAE Systems
  • Baykar Makina
  • Bell Textron
  • CAE Inc.
  • China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp.
  • Dassault Aviation
  • Denel Pty. Ltd.
  • Diehl Defence GmbH & Co. KG
  • DJI Innovations
  • Elbit Systems Ltd.
  • EMT Ingenieurgesellschaft
  • General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.
  • Griffon Aerospace
  • Honeywell International Inc.
  • Insitu Inc.
  • Intra Defense Technologies
  • Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd.
  • Kaman Aerospace Corp.
  • Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd
  • Korea Aviation Technologies
  • Korean Air Aerospace Business Division
  • Kratos Defense and Security Solutions Inc.
  • L3Harris Technologies
  • Leidos Holdings Inc.
  • Leonardo (formerly Finmeccanica)
  • Lockheed Martin Corp.
  • MacDonald, Dettwiler, and Associates (MDA) Ltd.
  • Northrop Grumman Corp.
  • Parrot SA
  • Piaggio Aerospace
  • Raytheon Technologies Corp
  • Rolls-Royce
  • Safran
  • Saudi Arabian Military Industries
  • Schiebel Elektronische Geraete GmbH
  • Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation
  • Skydio
  • Stark Aerospace, Inc.
  • Swift Engineering, Inc.
  • Teledyne FLIR (formerly FLIR Systems, Inc.)
  • Teledyne Technologies Inc.
  • Textron Systems Unmanned Systems
  • Thales
  • The Boeing Co.
  • Turkish Aerospace Industries
  • Uconsystem Co. Ltd.
  • UMS Skeldar
  • VTG

Methodology

The publisher's analysts employ a combination of empirical and expert centered approaches to forecasting across multiple global defense and aerospace markets. Numerous variables play into future market requirements: macroeconomics, geopolitics, regional competitiveness, public and private market forces, cost pressures, country‐specific budget constraints, supplier relationships, etc.

We maintain proprietary databases that provide a strong foundation for building a quantitative understanding of key relationships between the forces that drive the demand for an array of products, platforms, and systems. These data assets have been developed and expanded over 30 years of company operations and provide an unapparelled set of resources that make the publisher uniquely qualified to forecast future industry performance. These empirical fundamentals allow for rigorous modelling.

In addition to this highly structured, data-driven perspective, the publisher through the expertise of its analysts has a comprehensive qualitative understanding of the forces that shape market demand. It is our position that forecasting demands both empirical understanding and artistic interpretation based on insights gained from decades of dedicated research and analysis. The result is a forecast that combines both to achieve a highly informed window to the future.

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