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Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Select European Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket

  • Report

  • 62 Pages
  • December 2022
  • Region: Europe
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 5709262

Two Quarters of War-like Conditions and Geopolitical Chaos will Shrink the Demand for Automotive Lubricants by 2.1% in 2023

This research service discusses the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on select European automotive replacement lubricants aftermarket for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (class 1 to 3) in demand (million units) and volume (million US Quart). The regions covered are the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The base year is 2022, and the forecast period is 2023.

This study analyzes key oil and natural gas companies in Europe, followed by major Russian oil companies operating in the region. It highlights the dependency of European countries on Russian oil companies, the exit strategy of major European oil and lubricant manufacturers, and their alternative sourcing strategy.

The study discusses macroeconomic trends influenced by war, such as GDP, inflation, recession, and impact on major currencies. It identifies market drivers and restraints that can influence lubricant demand in 2023. The total demand base is identified, and the 3 lubricants covered are engine oil (motor oil or passenger car motor oil [PCMO]), gear oil, and transmission fluid. For each lubricant, the publisher forecasts 3 growth scenarios for the year 2023:

  • Scenario 1 is based on historical trends. It depicts a market without the War.
  • Scenario 2 is based on higher growth, as the market reacts positively to a possibility where demand grows faster than historical trends. The War does not affect domestic markets severely.
  • Scenario 3 is based on a lower growth rate, as the market reacts negatively to a possibility where demand shrinks quicker than historical trends. The War adversely affects domestic European markets.

The study identifies growth opportunities in the automotive lubricant segment in areas of alternative distribution partners, sourcing avenues, and production.

Table of Contents

1 Strategic Imperatives
  • Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
  • The Strategic Imperative 8™
  • The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on Select Automotive Lubricants Aftermarket
  • Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
2 Growth Opportunity Analysis
  • Scope of Analysis
  • Key Questions this Research Deliverable will Address
  • Segmentation & Definition
  • Distribution Structure
  • Key Competitors - Major Automotive Lubricants Suppliers in Europe
  • Key Findings
  • Current Scenario and 2023 Outlook
3 Impact on Europe - Geopolitical & Macroeconomics of the Russo-Ukrainian War
  • Russo-Ukrainian War - Timeline of Key Events & Economic Sanctions
  • Crude Oil Brent* Prices
  • GDP Growth Outlook, 2022-2023
  • Global GDP Growth Outlook by Scenario
  • Impact of War on Global GDP
  • Impact of War on Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • What to Expect Ahead?
  • Largest European Oil Companies by Revenue, 2021
  • Russia & Ukraine Largest Oil & Gas Companies by Revenue, 2021
  • Major Importers of (HSN 27101980) in Europe
  • Petrochemical Companies - Exit and Business Continuity Strategy
  • Noteworthy Trends in the European Lubricant Landscape
  • Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the European OEMs & Distribution Ecosystem
  • Global Automotive OEMs Pausing Trade with Russia & Ukraine
  • Shift in OEM, OES, and Distributor-Supplier Strategies
  • Growth Drivers
  • Growth Restraints
4 Growth Opportunity Analysis
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Growth Metrics
  • Key European Economic & Automotive Aftermarket Metrics1
  • Select European Countries - VIO & Growth Forecast to 2023
  • Impact of the Pandemic & the Russo-Ukrainian War on Vehicle Kilometer
  • Increase in Passenger Vehicle Ownership Patterns in Europe, 2022
  • Total Replacement Lubricant Aftermarket - Unit & Volume Demand
  • Replacement Aftermarket - Engine Oil Demand
  • Replacement Aftermarket - Gear Oil Demand
  • Replacement Aftermarket - Transmission Fluid Demand
  • Summary - Channel Impact
  • What to Expect Ahead in 2023 for the Aftermarket Automotive Lubricant Supplier?
5 Growth Opportunity Universe
  • Growth Opportunity 1 - American and North African Oil Distribution Groups
  • Growth Opportunity 2 - Double Down on Production and Distribution
  • Growth Opportunity 3 - Retail Volume Monitoring Technologies
6 The Last Word
  • The Last Word - 3 Big Predictions
  • List of Exhibits
  • Legal Disclaimer