Russia Road Freight Transport - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

The overall industrial output witnessed a growth of 6% YoY during H1 2023, driving the demand for road freight services

• In 2022, the overall retail turnover in Russia witnessed a decline of approximately 6% compared to the previous year. However, during the first nine months of the same year, online sales demonstrated significant growth, surging by 43% and reaching a total of USD 47.80 billion. Despite the challenges, the grocery retail sector managed to grow by an estimated 9-9.5% in 2022, primarily driven by inflationary price increases. Although the rate of decline in retail sales for 2023 is anticipated to be lower than that of 2022, the overall trend is still expected to be negative.
• During the initial half of 2023, the overall industrial output witnessed a growth exceeding 6%. Russia anticipates that, by the year's end, sectors facing significant challenges will show signs of recovery. Projections indicate a potential 2% growth in motor vehicle manufacturing, approximately 3.5% in machinery and equipment production, and an almost 8% increase in the medicines and preparations sector. The primary objective is to achieve a 55% upswing in the manufacturing index over the next 12 years compared to the baseline year of 2019, coupled with nearly doubling labor productivity within the same timeframe.

Russia Road Freight Transport Market Trends

Rising trade with China leading to new infrastructure construction and overall economic development

• In July 2024, the Russian government announced ambitious plans to develop an international transport corridor (INSTC) with a seamless railway connection from the Baltic and Barents Seas to the Indian Ocean. This corridor could reduce transit times from around 45 days (via the Suez Canal) to about 25 days, and cut freight costs by up to 30%. The project aims to create a comprehensive transport network connecting northern Europe to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, with railway links across Russia and possibly through other countries to reach these key waterways.
• In May 2024, Russia announced plans to open its first liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) terminal on the Pacific Ocean coast, with joint investments from China, by the end of 2025. The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) partnered with Chinese petrochemical company Haiwei to finance the terminal in Russia's Far East for shipping LPG. The deal involves investing 7 billion roubles (USD 95.61 million) in the terminal, which will have an annual capacity of 1 million metric tons. Overall investments are expected to total around 30 billion roubles (USD 409.74 million).

Rising Petrol and Diesel prices witnessed after drone strikes by Ukraine on Russia in April 2024

• In April 2024, a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries deep within Russia have forced the country to focus on defending its own territory while continuing the war with Ukraine. These attacks have led to an unexpected consequence, Russia, the world's largest oil producer, is now facing a petrol shortage. Diesel prices for Russian consumers surged nearly 10% in the last week of April, and petrol costs have reached a six-month high, rising more than 20% since the start of 2024 as supply tightens and more facilities are forced to halt production.
• Heavy fighting near Sudzha, where Russian gas flows into Ukraine, has raised concerns about a sudden halt to gas transit before the Gazprom deal ends in late 2024. Ukraine does not plan to renew the deal. In 2023, Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Europe dropped by 28.5%, from 20.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2022 to 14.65 bcm. If exports are halted, Russia could lose around USD 4.5 billion annually, based on a projected average gas price of USD 320 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2025. Currently, Russia exports over 40 million cubic meters of gas per day to Europe through Ukraine.

Russia Road Freight Transport Industry Overview

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support