Canada Road Freight Transport - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Canada’s agricultural export market share is expected to grow to 8% by 2027, driving the growth of the market

• E-commerce and retail continue to be key growth drivers for the Canadian road freight industry. In 2023, Canada's e-commerce industry saw a YoY growth of over 10%, with an expected increase of 15% by the end of 2024. The surge in e-commerce, driven by significant disruptions in traditional retail channels, has led to 11.5% of total retail sales being conducted online as of May 2024. Moreover, the number of online shoppers rose to 29 million in 2023, up from 27 million in 2022. The rapid expansion of e-commerce has significantly increased the demand for trucking services as businesses strive to meet consumer expectations for fast and reliable delivery.
• The agriculture, fishing, and forestry end-user segment is expected to record significant growth in the coming years, driven by an anticipated increase in the market share of agricultural product exports. It is projected that the market share for agricultural exports will rise from 5.70% in 2015 to 8% by 2027. This expansion would position Canada as the world's second-largest exporter, trailing only the United States. Throughout the study period, the domestic road freight transportation share of the segment remained notably high compared to international road freight transportation.

Canada Road Freight Transport Market Trends

Canada's transportation sector soars, boosted by infrastructure projects, eased travel policies and urban transit growth

• An efficient and reliable transportation system is crucial for the economy. Through the National Trade Corridors Fund, the Government of Canada invests in improving supply chains, reducing trade barriers, and fostering business growth for future economic opportunities. In May 2024, the Minister of Transport announced up to USD 51.2 million for 19 digital infrastructure projects under this fund. By promoting innovative technologies for stronger supply chains, the government aims to move goods faster and cheaper, making life more affordable for Canadians. This initiative will foster strong collaboration with stakeholders nationwide on key digital projects to better address transportation bottlenecks, vulnerabilities, and congestion at Canada's ports.
• In November 2024, the government announced progress in various projects. They had completed highway infrastructure improvements, enhancing road connections for First Nations communities to the province’s highway network. This included the successful removal and replacement of seven culverts on Highway 584 in 2024 and the completion of work planned on three culverts along Highway 11 in 2025. Looking ahead, an additional 26 culverts were set to be replaced along Highway 584 during the 2025-2026 construction seasons, with pavement rehabilitation of Highway 584 planned for 2027.

Rising tensions in the Middle East are expected to affect crude oil supplies and lead to sudden price hikes

• Gasoline prices rose 0.8% YoY in February 2024. Additionally, gasoline prices rose by 5.6% YoY in May 2024, compared to 6.1% in April, 4.5% in March, and 0.8% in February. North America, strong crude oil production is expected to continue in the coming years. Also, as more Canadian crude oil is expected to reach global markets with the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion coming online, there will be amply supplied crude oil markets. However, increased risks due to rising tensions in the Middle East are expected to affect crude oil supplies and lead to sudden price hikes.
• Annual maintenance on Canada's oil sands plants in 2024 is expected to cause no more disruption than usual. However, trade union officials warn of a labor shortage during Alberta's 2025 turnaround season due to the start of two new industrial projects. Each year, Alberta producers hire thousands of skilled workers for essential maintenance on oil sands upgraders, thermal projects, and refineries. Canada, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, gets about two-thirds of its 4.9 million barrels per day of crude from the oil sands in northern Alberta. This might raise fuel prices in 2025.

Canada Road Freight Transport Industry Overview

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• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
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