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Online Payment Fraud: Market Forecasts, Emerging Threats & Segment Analysis 2023-2028

  • Report

  • June 2023
  • Region: Global
  • Juniper Research
  • ID: 5732219

The Online Payment Fraud research report provides a detailed evaluation of the market, including different fraud types, the impact of the increase in alternative payment types, the future challenges within Open Banking APIs, and differing types of fraud in a variety of segments including banking, remote digital and physical goods and airlines. In addition, this report covers market opportunities; providing strategic insights into the development of new technologies, such as AI and machine learning, and key steps that are important for both vendors and merchants to take to manage increasing fraud risks.

The report also positions 21 online payment fraud detection and prevention vendors in the Competitor Leaderboard; providing an invaluable resource for stakeholders seeking to understand the competitive landscape in the market.

The research suite also contains a detailed dataset; providing forecasts for 60 countries across a wide range of different metrics, including fraud value for remote digital and physical goods purchases and online transactions, money transfer fraud rate and digital banking fraud rate, the splits for fraud rate by vertical, as well as including the split for mobile and online transactions.

This research suite comprises of:

  • Market Trends & Strategies (PDF)
  • Competitor Leaderboard (PDF)
  • Data & Forecasts (PDF & Excel)
  • 12 Months' Access to harvest Online Data Platform

Key Market Statistics

Merchant Losses in 2023

  • $38 billion

Merchant Losses in 2028

  • $91 billion

Total Merchant Losses 2023-2028

  • $362 billion

Key Features

Market Dynamics: A strategic analysis of the major drivers, challenges, and innovations shaping the adoption and development of fraud detection and prevention solutions:

  • COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the online payment fraud market and the ongoing influence from it.
  • Future strategic direction and market outlook for fraud detection and prevention vendors.
  • Key drivers for fraud detection and prevention vendors, including an increase in data provided from merchants, the implementation of AI and ML and their impact on fraud detection and prevention, and the growing needs of SMEs to access sophisticated fraud prevention systems.

Segment Analysis: A segment analysis of banking and money transfer, remote physical and digital goods and airlines, looking into key challenges, key trends and future outlook. This gives readers insight into the markets with a growing need for improvement within fraud detection and prevention.

Benchmark Industry Forecasts: Includes forecasts for the total fraudulent transaction value for airline eTicketing, remote digital goods, remote physical goods, money transfer and digital banking, as well as the total spend on fraud detection and prevention. This data is split by online and mobile transactions, and for our 8 key forecast regions and 60 countries:

North America:

  • Canada, US.

Latin America:

  • Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

West Europe:

  • Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.

Central & East Europe:

  • Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine.

Far East & China:

  • China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea.

Indian Subcontinent:

  • Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan.

Rest of Asia Pacific:

  • Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.

Africa & Middle East:

  • Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates.

The Competitor Leaderboard: Key player capability and capacity assessment for 21 online payment fraud detection and prevention vendors:

  • Accertify
  • ACI Worldwide
  • Experian
  • Featurespace
  • Feedzai
  • FICO
  • Fiserv
  • Fraudio
  • GBG
  • Kount
  • LexisNexis
  • Microsoft
  • NuData Security
  • Riskified
  • RSA Security
  • SAS
  • Signifyd
  • TransUnion
  • Vesta
  • Visa
  • Worldpay

Key Questions Answered

  • What will the total online payment fraud value be in 2028?
  • What impact will AI and machine learning have on fraud detection and prevention?
  • Who are the leading vendors in the fraud detection and prevention market?
  • What impact do emerging payments have on online fraud?
  • What are the next steps for vendors in fraud detection and prevention?

Executive Summary

Merchant losses from online payment fraud will exceed $362 billion globally between 2023 to 2028, with losses of $91 billion alone in 2028. A rise in eCommerce transactions in emerging markets is driving this growth. Merchants there are facing new threats, such as an increased use of AI for attacks. Online payment fraud is where cybercriminals conduct false or illegal transactions online, using a number of different fraud strategies, such as phishing, business email compromise or account takeover.

Underpinned by a robust scoring methodology, the new Competitor Leaderboard ranked the top 21 fraud detection and prevention vendors, using criteria such as the relative size of their customer base, completeness of their solutions and their future business prospects.

The top 5 vendors for 2023:

  • LexisNexis Risk Solutions
  • Experian
  • ACI Worldwide
  • Visa
  • FICO
Leading players scored well based on the breadth of their anti-fraud orchestration capabilities, as well as their use of AI for analysing trends in fraudster behaviour. In order to stay ahead of the competition, vendors must utilise data collected throughout the whole eCommerce process to further develop their fraud detection and prevention solutions through training and advancing AI models.

eCommerce payment vendors need to offer dashboards and data visualisations to their smaller SME customers. At present, SMEs lack access to good customer analytics, and this data could highlight consumer purchasing behaviours, as well as providing insights into payment method popularity and fraud. By offering additional services to SMEs, eCommerce payment vendors can differentiate their portfolios in an increasingly competitive and commoditised market.

Companies Mentioned

  • Feedzai
  • Fraudio
  • Kount
  • LexisNexis
  • Vesta
  • Visa
  • Accertify
  • ACI Worldwide
  • Experian
  • Featurespace
  • Feedzai
  • FICO
  • Fiserv
  • Fraudio
  • GBG
  • Kount
  • LexisNexis Risk Solutions
  • Microsoft
  • NuData Security
  • Riskified
  • RSA Security
  • SAS
  • Signifyd
  • TransUnion
  • Vesta
  • Visa
  • Worldpay
  • 4Stop
  • Accelitas
  • ACI Worldwide
  • Acuris
  • Adobe
  • AFS (Advanced Financial Solutions)
  • Allianz
  • ALTO
  • American Express
  • Aspenware
  • AT&T
  • AU10TIX
  • Authorize.net
  • AWS
  • Axerve
  • Bailhang Credit
  • Bank of Singapore
  • Barclaycard Payments
  • BAV (Bank Account Validation)
  • BehavioSec
  • BigCommerce
  • Black Opal
  • Blibli
  • BlueSnap
  • BNP Paribas
  • Boemska
  • Braintree
  • Bukalapak
  • Cashplus
  • Cayan
  • Centro
  • Chargebacks911
  • checkout.com
  • Citrix
  • Cognizant
  • Confused.com
  • ConnexPay
  • CredoLab
  • Crypto.com
  • Cybersource
  • Dell
  • Deloitte
  • Delta Air Lines
  • Dentsu
  • Deutsche Bank
  • Diebold Nixdorf
  • eBay
  • Emailage
  • Entersekt
  • Entrée Capital
  • Entrust Datacard
  • Equifax
  • Esure
  • Etisalat
  • Eway
  • Fidelity Management & Research Company
  • Finxact
  • Fischer
  • GDS Link
  • General Atlantic
  • GeoComply
  • Global Payments
  • HSBC
  • IBM
  • ID R&D
  • IDology
  • Innovalor
  • Invation
  • Jack Henry & Associates Inc
  • JPMorgan Chase
  • Kaidee
  • Kenbi
  • KPMG
  • Landsbankinn
  • Laurentian Bank
  • Lego
  • LeoVegas
  • Mastercard
  • Midigator
  • MySQL
  • NatWest
  • NewSuite
  • NorthRow
  • NortonLife Lock
  • NTT Data
  • Oracle
  • OTP Bank
  • P97
  • PassFort
  • Payoneer
  • Philippines Security Bank Corporation
  • Phonelink
  • PingIdentity
  • Pitango Venture Capital
  • Plaid
  • Playtech
  • Praxis
  • Primer
  • Provenir
  • PWC
  • Qumra Capital
  • Railsr
  • RedAbierta
  • Regily
  • RocketFuel Blockchain Inc
  • Sage
  • Salesforce Commerce Cloud
  • Santander Bank
  • SAP
  • Sapiens
  • Scudetto
  • Sekura
  • SEON
  • Shopify
  • Shyft Network
  • Soldo
  • SPhonic
  • SumUp
  • Symphony Technology Group
  • Synectics Solutions
  • Temenos
  • Teradata
  • Thales
  • The Access Group
  • Threat Fabric
  • TruNarrative
  • Trunarrative
  • TSYS
  • UK Finance
  • Visualsoft
  • Viva Wallet
  • Vtex
  • WiPay
  • Worldline
  • Zilch