Nigeria Renewable Energy - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The Nigeria Renewable Energy Market was valued at 3.59 gigawatt in 2025 and estimated to grow from 4.51 gigawatt in 2026 to reach 14.07 gigawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 25.58% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

Rising policy certainty, concessional climate finance, and rapid declines in technology costs are steering the transition away from diesel backup and toward diversified renewable portfolios. Grid unreliability, which triggers frequent nationwide blackouts, makes distributed solar and wind solutions attractive to households and businesses seeking a dependable energy source. Utility-scale developers benefit from the 2023 Electricity Act, which decentralizes market oversight and allows states to define feed-in tariffs tailored to local resource endowments. Parallel reforms in tariff adjustment and foreign-exchange access are strengthening bankability for both domestic and international investors. Global strategic players are deepening local partnerships, while regional developers are scaling mini-grids and embedded generation to serve unserved rural clusters, reflecting widespread confidence in Nigeria’s decarbonization roadmap.

Nigeria Renewable Energy Market Trends and Insights

Favourable Government FIT & Tax-Holiday Regime

Feed-in tariffs and seven-year tax holidays tilt project economics in favor of renewables, cutting levelized costs below those of diesel and gas when adjusted for foreign exchange risk. State-level FITs empower governors to attract industry, while Lagos’ 2024 electricity law halves average permitting time. Investors view the dual-layer incentive as an effective hedge against the high cost of capital, but tariff indexation to inflation and exchange rates remains essential for long-term certainty. Developers report faster financial close when power‐offtake agreements are paired with state guarantees. The sustainability of the FIT scheme depends on cost-reflective retail tariffs; however, current frameworks aim to shield low-income customers from sudden price hikes.

Rapid Decline in Solar-PV Module Prices

Global module prices fell near 15% per year through 2024, slashing Nigerian project capex and enabling grid-parity LCOEs in sun-rich northern Sahelian states. Diesel displacement economics are even stronger for C&I users, who face fuel costs above USD 0.30/kWh. Developers secure multi-year supply contracts to lock in low prices and blunt trade-policy risk. An extensive solar resource of 4.5-6.5 kWh/m²/day delivers capacity factors 40-60% higher than those of many EU sites, amplifying the cost benefits. Pay-as-you-go financing spreads adoption among small firms and households, shortening payback periods to three to five years.

Grid Instability & High T&D Losses

Technical losses above 20% and recurring system collapses undermine confidence in utility-scale rollouts. Payment shortfalls resulted in only 21% of wholesale invoices being settled in 2024, straining developer cash flows. Industrial customers are pivoting to self-generation, indirectly stimulating the Nigerian renewable energy market. National grid modernization aims to deploy SCADA and automate switching, yet most upgrades are slated for completion after 2027. Battery storage co-located with renewables now provides lucrative ancillary-service revenues that partly offset curtailment risk.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Corporate PPA Demand from C&I Customers
• Rural Electrification Mini-Grid Incentives
• FX Shortages & Import Duties on Renewable-Energy Equipment

Segment Analysis

Hydropower's 86.90% share of Nigeria's renewable energy market in 2025 is largely attributed to legacy dams, such as the 700 MW Zungeru complex. The share will decline as wind capacity accelerates at a 87.24% CAGR on favorable northern wind corridors with ≥35% capacity factors. Investors perceive lower siting risks for wind energy relative to large dams, spurring state-backed power purchase agreements. Solar adoption intensifies in the commercial and industrial (C&I) space, where daytime load profiles align with output, reducing diesel runtime. Bioenergy utilizes abundant crop residues from middle-belt farms, supplying captive power to agro-processing mills. Geothermal prospects around the Jos Plateau await a detailed appraisal; initial studies have highlighted 74 MW of recoverable heat, but commercial exploitation hinges on drilling incentives.

Capacity additions point to a diversified generation mix that enhances resilience. Wind developers prioritize community equity stakes to mitigate land disputes. Utility-scale solar gains traction due to 2024 duty exemptions on inverters and batteries. Bioenergy projects align with circular economy goals by monetizing agricultural waste, while nascent ocean energy pilots monitor wave regimes along the 853 km coastline. The evolution of the technology mix, therefore, hinges on proven bankability and established supply chains, rather than resource scarcity.

The Nigeria Renewable Energy Market Report is Segmented by Technology (Solar Energy, Wind Energy, Hydropower, Bioenergy, Geothermal, and Ocean Energy) and End-User (Utilities, Commercial and Industrial, and Residential). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).

List of companies covered in this report:

• Engie SA
• TotalEnergies SE
• Starsight Energy
• North South Power Co. Ltd
• Mainstream Energy Solutions Ltd
• Daystar Power Group
• JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd
• Sterling & Wilson Pvt Ltd
• Siemens Energy AG
• Enel Green Power
• Bboxx Nigeria
• Husk Power Systems
• Sahara Group (Egbin)
• Sinohydro Corp Ltd
• ACWA Power
• Scatec ASA
• Azuri Technologies
• Konexa
• Rubitec Solar
• GreenWish Partners

Additional benefits of purchasing this report:

• Access to the market estimate sheet (Excel format)
• 3 months of analyst support