Mexico Construction Market Size, Trends, and Forecasts by Sector - Commercial, Industrial, Infrastructure, Energy and Utilities, Institutional and Residential Market Analysis to 2030 (Q3 2026)

Summary

The construction industry in Mexico is expected to grow by 2% in real terms in 2026, recovering part of the 3% contraction in 2025, with growth driven almost entirely by public investment. After cutting public physical investment by 28.3% in real terms in 2025 as part of its fiscal consolidation, the government has resumed spending on its priority projects, notably passenger rail lines and power infrastructure. As a result, infrastructure and energy and utilities construction will together contribute 2.2 percentage points to growth in 2026, led by rail infrastructure (20.9%) and electricity and power (11.9%), while commercial, industrial, institutional, and residential construction will subtract 0.2 percentage points combined. Official data shows that the recovery gathered pace in mid-2026. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), construction value-add grew by 4.8% year-on-year (YoY) in Q2 2026, following a 0.7% decline in Q1, and seasonally adjusted construction output rose by 6.7% YoY in July 2026. Meanwhile, private investment remains the main weakness, partly influenced by the US decision not to extend the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) at its July 2026 joint review.

Over the remainder of the forecast period, the industry is expected to register an average annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2027 to 2030, supported by investment in transport, energy, and data center infrastructure. The 2027 Economic Package allocates MXN1.03 trillion ($55.1 billion), or 2.6% of GDP, to public physical investment, a real increase of 3.5% from 2026, according to the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO). However, Pemex, the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), and new passenger rail lines account for 46% of the total. With the government also aiming to narrow the fiscal deficit, delivery of the MXN5.6 trillion ($299.4 billion) Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-Being 2026-2030 will depend on mixed public-private financing. In energy, the CFE’s 2026-30 Development Program involves an investment of MXN651 billion ($34.8 billion) to add 18.6GW of new generation capacity by 2030, of which 15.2GW will be renewable, and 7,545km of transmission lines.

The analyst’s Construction in Mexico - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2030 (Q3 2026) report provides detailed market analysis, information, and insights into Mexico’s construction industry, including:

Mexico’s construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in Mexico’s construction industry
Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Mexico. It provides:

Historical (2021-2025) and forecast (2026-2030) valuations of the construction industry in Mexico, featuring details of key growth drivers.
Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants

Reasons to Buy

Identify and evaluate market opportunities using our standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies
Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts
Understand the latest industry and market trends
Formulate and validate business strategies using the analyst's critical and actionable insight
Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures
Evaluate competitive risk and success factors

1 Executive Summary2 Construction Industry: At-a-Glance

3 Context

3.1 Economic Performance
3.2 Political Environment and Policy
3.3 Demographics
3.4 Risk Profile

4 Construction Outlook

4.1 All Construction

Outlook
Latest news and developments
Construction Projects Momentum Index

4.2 Commercial Construction

Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments

4.3 Industrial Construction

Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments

4.4 Infrastructure Construction

Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments

4.5 Energy and Utilities Construction

Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments

4.6 Institutional Construction

Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments

4.7 Residential Construction

Outlook
Project analytics
Latest news and developments

5 Key Industry Participants

5.1 Contractors
5.2 Consultants

6 Construction Market Data

7 Appendix

7.1 What is this Report About?
7.2 Definitions
7.3 CRI Methodology

About the Analyst
Contact Us

List of Tables

Table 1: Construction Industry Key Data
Table 2: Mexico, Key Economic Indicators
Table 3: Mexico, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2021-30
Table 4: Mexico, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value
Table 5: Mexico, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2021-30
Table 6: Mexico, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value
Table 7: Mexico, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2021-30
Table 8: Mexico, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value
Table 9: Mexico, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2021-30
Table 10: Mexico, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value
Table 11: Mexico, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2021-30
Table 12: Mexico, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value
Table 13: Mexico, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2021-30
Table 14: Mexico, Top Residential Construction Projects by Value
Table 15: Mexico, Key Contractors
Table 16: Mexico, Key Consultants
Table 17: Mexico Construction Output Value (Real, $ Million)
Table 18: Mexico Construction Output Value (Nominal, MXN Billion)
Table 19: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions
Table 20: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions
Table 21: Ratings, Scores and Definitions
Figure 1: Latin America, Construction Output (Real % Change), 2024-30
Figure 2: Mexico, Construction Output by Sector (Real % Change), 2024-26 and 2027-30
Figure 3: Mexico, Risk Summary
Figure 4: Mexico, Risk Regional Comparison
Figure 5: Mexico, Construction Output Value (Real, $ Million, 2022 Prices and Exchange Rate), 2021-30
Figure 6: Mexico, Construction Output Value, by Sector (Real, $ Million), 2021-30
Figure 7: Mexico, Construction Value-add, 2018 Prices (MXN Billion)
Figure 8: Mexico, Construction Production Volume Index (2018=100)
Figure 9: Mexico, Construction Confidence Index, in Seasonally Adjusted Terms
Figure 10: Mexico, Construction Employment as a Percentage of Total Population
Figure 11: Mexico, Construction Projects Momentum Index
Figure 12: Latin America, Construction Projects Momentum Index
Figure 13: Mexico, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2021-30
Figure 14: Mexico, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 15: Mexico, Total International Tourist Arrivals (In Thousands)
Figure 16: Mexico, Wholesale and Retail Trade Value-add (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
Figure 17: Mexico, Value-add of Artistic, Cultural, Sports and Other Related Activities (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
Figure 18: Mexico, Commercial Trade Confidence Index, In Seasonally Adjusted Terms
Figure 19: Mexico, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2021-30
Figure 20: Mexico, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 21: Mexico, Manufacturing Value-add (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
Figure 22: Mexico, Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM), In Seasonally Adjusted Terms
Figure 23: Mexico, Manufacturing Confidence Index, In Seasonally Adjusted Terms
Figure 24: Mexico, Total Merchandise Exports ($ Billion)
Figure 25: Mexico, Manufacturing and Mining Production Volume Indices (original, 2018=100), % Change YoY
Figure 26: Mexico, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2021-30
Figure 27: Mexico, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 28: Mexico, Construction Production Volume Index for Civil Engineering Activities (2018=100)
Figure 29: Mexico, Value-add of Civil Engineering Activities (In 2018 Prices, MXN Billion)
Figure 30: Mexico, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2021-30
Figure 31: Mexico, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 32: Mexico, Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electrical Energy Value-add (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
Figure 33: Mexico, Telecommunications Value-add (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
Figure 34: Mexico, Production Volume Index for Oil and Gas Extraction (2018=100)
Figure 35: Mexico, Electricity Production Volume Index (original series, 2018=100), % Change YoY
Figure 36: Mexico, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2021-30
Figure 37: Mexico, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 38: Mexico, Value-add of Education, Health, and Social Care Services, 2018 Prices, % Change YoY Prices)
Figure 39: Mexico, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2021-30
Figure 40: Mexico, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
Figure 41: Mexico, Real Estate Services Value-add (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
Figure 42: Mexico, House Price Index (2017=100)
Figure 43: Mexico, Gross Fixed Investment on Residential Buildings, 2018=100
Figure 44: Mexico, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)
Figure 45: Mexico, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)

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