Allowance Price and GHG Emissions Forecast for WCI Carbon Market

Introduction

2.1 Key variables influencing WCI carbon market
2.2 Updating our modeling and model scenarios
2.3 Updated emissions outlook for 2022
2.4 Outlook for Compliance Offsets till 2030
2.5 Emissions and pricing for the WCI carbon market in different scenarios for 2030 and 2050

3.1 The Global Context
3.2 Cap-and-Trade Background Brief
3.3 Sectoral Emission Reduction Programs
3.4 Legislation in California
3.5 California Market Mechanics
3.6 Legislation in Quebec
3.7 2022 Quebec Plan for a Green Economy
3.8 Western Climate Initiative (WCI)
3.9 California Covered Emission Historical Trends
3.10 Quebec's Covered Emission Historical Trends

4.1 California Draft Scoping Plan review
4.2 Increased role of investors in the California-Quebec program
4.3 Auction trends in the Cap and Trade
4.4 Covid continues to cast a shadow
4.5 Russian invasion of Ukraine
4.6 New business cycle and new world order for the decade?
California Emissions Outlook 2021, 2022

5.1 California's Covered Emissions Forecast for 2021 and 2022

6.1 Transportation Fuels
6.2 Impact of Ukraine-Russia conflict
6.3 Natural Gas Suppliers
6.4 Refineries and Hydrogen Plants
6.5 Oil and Gas Production
6.6 Fossil Fuel Power Generation
6.7 Electricity Imports
6.8 Building Emissions
6.9 Building Stock Forecast
Quebec Outlook 2021,2022

8.1 Transportation
8.2 Natural Gas Distribution by End-Use

9.1 The forecast is based on the publisher's model
9.2 Key variables considered for the present forecast
9.3 Key updates since our last forecast
9.4 Long term scenarios considered
9.5 Sectoral emissions analysis

10.1 Scenarios Considered
10.2 Demand-Side Scenarios
10.3 Supply-Side Scenarios
10.4 Scenario Analysis: Demand-Side
10.5 Scenario Analysis: Supply-Side

11.1 The market is sitting on about 490.5 million "Bank of Allowances"
11.2 Covered entities likely tapping into their bank already. Overall bank reduction will start from 2023

12.1 Forecasted auction prices
12.2 Drawdown of reserves in comparison with the allowances allocated/ sold and offsets issued
12.3 Balances in entity and jurisdiction accounts
12.4 Value of allowances auctioned, and offsets bought

13.1 Assumptions for constructing the post-2030 market
13.2 Observations and key variables at play
13.3 Scenarios till 2050
13.4 Drawdown of reserves in comparison with the allowances allocated/sold and offsets issued

14.1 California Allowance Budget till 2030 (million tons of CO2e)
14.2 Quebec Allowance Budget till 2030 (million tons of CO2e)
14.3 Variables taken into account in the forecasting

Figure 2-1 California's trend of reductions in covered emissions versus the state's allowance budget
Figure 2-2 Quebec's trend of reductions in covered emissions versus the state's cap on emission units
Figure 2-3 Price scenarios till 2030
Figure 3-1 Decoupling California's Emissions from GDP (Billion USD)
Figure 3-2 California's Emissions Intensity: Kg CO2e per Dollar GSP
Figure 3-3 Quebec's Emissions and GDP (Billion CAD)
Figure 3-4 Quebec's Emission Intensity: Kg CO2e per unit GDP (CAD)
Figure 3-5 California's covered emissions trend (2015-2022(E))
Figure 3-6 Quebec's covered emission trend (2015-2022(E)
Figure 4-1 Financial Participation in Auctions
Figure 4-2 Current Auction Bid Ratio and Allowances Cleared (2020)
Figure 4-3 California sales of MVF seasonal variation
Figure 4-4 Quebec sales of gasoline seasonal variation
Figure 5-1 California's Forecast for 2021 & 2022; YoY Percentage Change by Sector
Figure 5-2 California's Forecast for 2021 & 2022
Figure 6 - Top five Emitters: Transportation Fuels
Figure 6-2 Total Gasoline Production (Weekly Fuels Watch)
Figure 6-3 Annual Gasoline Production (2022 data is till March 2022)
Figure 6-4 Taxable Gallons of Motor Vehicle Fuel by Organization
Figure 6-5 Share of Motor Vehicle Fuel Distributors in 2019
Figure 6-6 Overall % Change in Emissions (M Mt CO2e): Transportation Fuels
Figure 6-7 Absolute Emissions for 2019, 2020, 2021(E): Transportation Fuels
Figure 6-8 Annual Diesel Production till 2021
Figure 6-9 California LCFS Quarterly Renewable Fuels Production
Figure 6-10 Impact of COVID on Monthly Fuel Sales in California (Gallons)
Figure 6-11 California Gasoline Production Seasonal Variation
Figure 6-12 California Transportation Emissions Forecast 2021 and 2022
Figure 6-13 Top five Emitters: Natural Gas Suppliers
Figure 6-14 Absolute Emissions: Suppliers of Natural Gas*
Figure 6-15 California 2021 Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use
Figure 6-16 Natural Gas Consumption: Residential Consumers
Figure 6-17 Natural Gas Consumption: Industrial consumers
Figure 6-18 Annual Natural Gas Consumption: Residential Users
Figure 6-19 Annual Natural Gas Consumption: Industrial Customers
Figure 6-20 Annual Gas Consumption: All consumer types (including vehicle fuel)
Figure 6-21 Sector forecast 2021,2022: Natural Gas Suppliers
Figure 6-22 Absolute Emissions: Refineries and Hydrogen Plants
Figure 6-23 Top 5 Emitters: Refineries and Hydrogen Plants
Figure 6-24 Number of Refineries operating in California have decreased; 14 refineries operate in 2021
Figure 6-25 Crude Oil Refinery Inputs seasonal variation
Figure 6-26 California Monthly Gasoline Production
Figure 6-27 California Monthly Diesel Production
Figure 6-28 Sector forecast for 2021,2022: Refineries and Hydrogen Plants
Figure 6-29 Absolute Emissions: Oil and Gas Production
Figure 6-30 Top Five Emitters: Oil and Gas Production
Figure 6-31 California Crude Oil Refining Capacity
Figure 6-32 Sector forecast 2021,2022: Oil and Gas Production
Figure 6-33 Absolute Emissions: Fossil Fuel Electricity Generation
Figure 6-34 California Annual Electricity: In-state and Imports
Figure 6-35 California Annual In-state Generation: All Renewables and Natural Gas
Figure 6-36 California Annual Carbon Free Electricity Generation
Figure 6-37 Top Five Emitters: Fossil Fuel Electricity Generation
Figure 6-38 Sector Forecast 2020,2021: Fossil Fuel Power Generation
Figure 6-39 Absolute Emissions: Electricity Importers till 2022
Figure 6-40 Top five emitters: Electricity imports
Figure 6-41 Historical Imports of Electricity (GWh) by source
Figure 7-1 Quebec Covered Emissions YoY Percentage Change by Sector: 2020 & 2021
Figure 8-1 Percentage Change in Emissions: Transportation
Figure 8-2 Absolute Emissions: Transportation
Figure 8-3 Quebec's reported Emissions by Fuel Type
Figure 8-4 Quebec Gasoline sales in Millions CAD
Figure 8-5 Quebec Crude Oil Runs
Figure 8-6 COVID impact on Quebec Gasoline Sales: Monthly sales
Figure 8-7 Quebec Annual Crude Oil Runs (Thousand Barrels)
Figure 8-8 Quebec Emissions Forecast: 2021 & 2022
Figure 8-9 Quebec Natural Gas distribution by consumer type
Figure 8-10 Quebec Natural Gas Distribution Monthly: Commercial customers
Figure 8-11 Quebec Natural Gas Distribution Monthly: Industrial consumers
Figure 8-12 Quebec Natural Gas Distribution Monthly: Residential consumers
Figure 9-1 2030 Sectoral emissions across three scenarios considered
Figure 9-2 Stock of Clean Fuel Vehicles in California 2010-2020
Figure 9-3 HDV distribution by fuel type in California
Figure 9-4 Electricity (GWh) consumed by EVs till date in California
Figure 9-5 Electricity (GWh) consumed by EVs till date in California
Figure 9-6 Additional Electricity demand by EVs in the likely scenario
Figure 9-7 Resultant emissions from Electricity sector and Fuels
Figure 10-1 Carbon Offset Demand for the period CP3-CP7 for Compliance Continuity scenario
Figure 10-2 Carbon Offset Demand for the period CP3-CP7 for Maximum Offset usage
Figure 11-1 Present Trajectory: California and Quebec Emissions compared with the CA-QC Cap (data till 2020 is actual and after that estimated)
Figure 11-2 Demand supply gap for the different scenarios (All figs in Mt CO2e)
Figure 12-1 Forecasted CCA prices till 2030 for different scenarios (In USD)
Figure 12-2 Timing for reserves drawn down and other instruments in the different scenarios (All figs in Mt CO2e)
Figure 12-3 Balances in the different entity and jurisdiction accounts (Present Trajectory scenario)
Figure 12-4 Value in USD of Allowances and Offsets bought (Present Trajectory scenario)
Figure 12-5 Value in USD of Allowances and Offsets bought (High Carbon Price Scenario)
Figure 12-6 Value in USD of Allowances and Offsets bought (Low Carbon Price scenario)
Figure 13-1 Sectoral Emissions Present Trajectory (Mt CO2e)
Figure 13-2 Sectoral Emissions Low Carbon Price Scenario (Mt CO2e)
Figure 13-3 Sectoral emissions-High Carbon Price Scenarios (Mt CO2e)
Figure 13-4 Present Trajectory: California and Quebec Emissions compared with the CA-QC Cap to meet 2050 goals
Figure 13-5 Demand supply gap for the different scenarios till 2050 (All figs in Mt CO2e)
Figure 13-6 Timing for reserves drawn down and other instruments in the different scenarios (All figs in Mt CO2e)