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Future of Electric Car Batteries and Hydrogen for Mass E-Mobility

  • Report

  • 50 Pages
  • April 2023
  • Region: Global
  • Auto2x
  • ID: 5789601

Batteries and Hydrogen hold a key role in the future of Automotive: Sustainable and Circular

Electrification of passenger cars and commercial vehicles will play an important role on the journey towards a carbon neutral society. While battery is taking central stage, hydrogen has the potential to be an important, safe, low-carbon transport fuel, particularly for heavy-duty transport such as trucks, buses and shipping.

This report examines the impact of technology and market forces to unveil the future of battery and hydrogen mobility.

  • Learn about innovative research to tackle technological challenges of cost, energy density, storage and infrastructure;
  • Understand the development of regulation and policy which could remove the barrier of developing infrastructure;
  • Assess the strategies of players to build strong position in future mobility.

Batteries become the cornerstone of new business models

Battery-as-a-Service, Battery-Swapping, emerge as new revenue pools for automotive players.

Web3 and Blockchain applications emerge to support transparency and traceability.

  • Everledger created “EV battery digital passports” with Ford to track batteries across their lifecycle.
  • Volvo and Jaguar Land Rover are among the carmakers who have already started digitalizing their supply chain using blockchain to source cobalt for EV battery cells.

Environmental regulation for Circular battery economy drives recycling and 2nd life

With the proliferation of electric vehicles, regulations are trying to tackle their environmental management.

  • China has recently published legislation obliging battery and EV manufacturers to recycle exhausted EV batteries at the end of their first life.
  • In December 2022, the US government’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law Funding announced support for the reintegration of used batteries through recycling and reusing to meet the increasing supply chain demands and reduce dependence on imports for critical materials and components;
  • Europe has introduced Circular Battery mandates with the EU Battery Directive.

Moving from a linear to a circular value chain can improve both the environmental and the economic footprint of batteries by getting more out of them while in use, and by harvesting their end-of-life value.

A plethora of technological innovations in electric vehicle batteries, business models for 2nd life and recyclability, and industry collaboration will be crucial for the shift from Low to Full Circular Mobility.

The race to replace lithium-ion batteries is on to solve range anxiety, fast-charging and affordability

Researchers in the US, Japan, China and the EU are focused on several alternatives which may not be available for more than a decade.

Tesla, Ford and VW see lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries as a cheaper alternative to cobalt as most of the world’s cobalt reserves are located in the Congo, where the mining sector is associated with human rights violations. LFPs already play a dominant role in China’s battery EV market which makes them the primary choice in the energy storage sector until at least 2030.

CATL unveiled its first-generation sodium-ion battery. Sodium is abundant, less expensive and the batteries are non-flammable, so CATL plans to ramp up production by 2023.

Start-ups aim at solving the technological challenges of EV batteries

IonQ using quantum computing for material simulation for the development of EV batteries;

Some prominent startups working on Solid State Batteys, such as Solid Power, QuantumScape are located in the USA and they have partnerships with major carmakers such as Hyundai.

New battery and hydrogen hotspots emerge

Even though China dominates battery manufacturing, Europe, the US and Korea are competing to develop stronger domestic capabilities and limit their dependence on China.

Electrification Outlook: Adoption of BEVs and Hydrogen Vehicles

EVs reached more than 20% share in China & Europe in H1 2022. ICE penetration dropped to 53.8% in Europe

  • 6.9 million EVs were sold in China in 2022, surging by 94% y-y, said CAAM
  • NEV sales reached 2.5 million in China, vs. 1.1 million in Europe and 0.4m in the US in the first half of 2022.
  • Electric car penetration rose to 24% in China, vs. 20% in Europe and just 6% in the US;
  • Europe widens the gap compared to the US

China’s new car sales rose by 3.4% to 10.4 million in H1 2022, but NEVs saw a 107% y-y increase. China’s BEV & PHEV cars (New Energy) reached 24% market share in H1 2022, according to CAAM.

In Europe, ACEA reported that BEV penetration reached 12% while ICE’s share dropped to 53.4% in Q1-Q3 2022. Electric car sales (BEV + PHEV) reached 1.7m, or 20.4% of the mix with HEVs accounting for 23.7%.

Table of Contents

1. Market Opportunity
  • Market forces driving Battery and Hydrogen adoption
  • Opportunities: technologies and business models
2. State of the art of electrification in passenger cars
  • The State of the art in electrified mobility technology
  • Emission regulation
  • Requirements for Circular Autos
3. Future of ICE: phase-out or re-purpose?
  • Diesel’s future
  • The evolution of emission treatment technologies
  • Electrified ICE
  • Hydrogen ICE
4. Innovation in Battery Tech for Sustainable Propulsion
  • The evolution of battery energy density, cost per kWh by 2030
  • Lithium-ion batteries
  • Solid-state batteries
  • Lithium-sulphur
  • Other chemistries
  • Electric vehicle battery chemistries
  • Key research publications to improve battery energy density and other EV battery challenges
5. The future of Hydrogen for automotive
  • Opportunities and challenges in Hydrogen fuel cells
  • Innovation to overcome the key challenges in Hydrogen Mobility
  • Green Hydrogen
6. Renewable Gas7. Synthetic Biofuels8. e-fuels9. EV charging infrastructure
10. Player Strategy
  • Fuel cell & battery strategy and technology by major players
  • Go-to-market and favorable geographies

Companies Mentioned

  • CATL
  • Everledger
  • Ford 
  • IonQ 
  • Jaguar Land Rover
  • QuantumScape
  • Solid Power
  • Tesla
  • Volvo
  • VW