Gasoline Market Report 2025

The gasoline market size has grown steadily in recent years. It will grow from $1.45 trillion in 2024 to $1.5 trillion in 2025 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4%. The growth in the historic period can be attributed to global oil prices, the regulatory environment, consumer behavior, infrastructure development, automobile industry.

The gasoline market size is expected to see steady growth in the next few years. It will grow to $1.77 trillion in 2029 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3%. The growth in the forecast period can be attributed to the transition to electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy policies, climate change regulations, and geopolitical factors. Major trends in the forecast period include global economic recovery, electric vehicle adoption, technological advancements in fuel efficiency, government policies and regulations, and fluctuations in oil prices.

The forecast of 4.3% growth over the next five years indicates a slight reduction of 0.2% from the previous projection. This reduction is primarily due to the impact of tariffs between the US and other countries. This is likely to directly affect the US through reduced imports of gasoline blendstocks from India and South Korea, potentially creating regional supply shortages and price volatility during peak driving seasons. The effect will also be felt more widely due to reciprocal tariffs and the negative effect on the global economy and trade due to increased trade tensions and restrictions.

The rising demand for automobiles is projected to drive the growth of the gasoline market in the future. Gasoline is the most commonly used fuel for most vehicles, especially in regions where electric or alternative fuel vehicles are not yet widely adopted. As the demand for automobiles increases, there will be a corresponding rise in the need for gasoline to fuel these vehicles, contributing to the expansion of the gasoline market. For example, in March 2024, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, a major lobbying and standards organization in the automobile industry based in Belgium, reported that global new car sales rose by nearly 10% after a stable performance in 2022. In the EU, sales experienced a significant increase of around 14%, reaching a total of 10.5 million units, while battery-electric vehicle sales soared by 37%, capturing a market share of 14.6%. Thus, the growing demand for automobiles is fueling the growth of the gasoline market.

The rise in geopolitical tensions is anticipated to drive the growth of the gasoline market in the future. Geopolitical tensions refer to political conflicts, rivalries, or disputes between nations or regions, often concerning issues like territory, resources, power, or ideology. These rising tensions can disrupt oil supply, create market uncertainty, and lead to a risk premium, as well as affect refinery operations, alter regional supply routes, influence currency fluctuations, and impact demand. Additionally, such tensions may result in strategic releases or withholdings from petroleum reserves. For instance, in August 2024, the World Economic Forum, a Switzerland-based international organization, reported that 83% of respondents view geopolitical tensions as the primary risk to global economic growth in the coming year, surpassing concerns about high inflation and monetary tightening, which were cited by 73%. Furthermore, looking ahead to the next decade, 86% of participants identified increasing geopolitical fragmentation and protectionism as the most significant long-term threat. Thus, the escalation of geopolitical tensions is contributing to the growth of the gasoline market.

Product innovations stand out as a prominent trend gaining traction in the gasoline market, with companies in this industry actively embracing new innovations to maintain their market positions. As an example, in March 2022, Renewable Energy Group Inc., a biobased diesel producer based in the United States, unveiled its fuel solutions under the EnDura Fuels brand. This product launch aligns with Renewable Energy Group's ongoing efforts to support the transportation sector by offering cleaner-burning, lower-emission fuels, aiding various industries such as transportation, rail, maritime, aviation, in meeting their sustainability objectives.

Major players in the gasoline market are spearheading the development of innovative technologies, including deposit-eradicating technologies, to secure a competitive advantage. Deposit-eradicating technology involves features or innovations designed to eliminate deposits that may accumulate in specific systems or components. For instance, in May 2023, Equilon Enterprises LLC, a U.S.-based oil refining company, introduced an enhanced formulation of its Shell V-Power NiTRO+ Premium Gasoline. This high-performance fuel incorporates unique deposit-eradicating technology targeting fuel injectors, a critical engine component. It can remove up to 100% of performance-robbing deposits, providing protection against future build-up. Engineered for maximum performance, the new V-Power NiTRO+ aims to deliver a premium fuel experience to customers.

In November 2023, Petrol Ofisi a.Ş., a Turkey-based fuel distribution and retail company, acquired British Petroleum (BP) plc. for an undisclosed sum. This acquisition allows Petrol Ofisi to strengthen its position in the gasoline market by broadening its retail network and expanding its customer base in Turkey. British Petroleum (BP) plc. is an oil and gas company based in the UK.

Major companies operating in the gasoline market include ExxonMobil Corporation, Shell plc, Chevron Corporation., PBF Energy Inc., Reliance Industries Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, Saudi Arabian Oil Co., China National Petroleum Corporation, BP plc, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Valero Energy Corporation, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, Motiva Enterprises LLC, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, Emirates National Oil Company Group, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom International Limited, TotalEnergies, Eni S.p.A., ConocoPhillips Company, Rosneft, LUKOIL Lubricants company, Phillips 66, Pemex, Indian Oil Corporation, Petronas, Sinopec, Repsol S.A., OMV AG, Hess Corporation, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, Ecopetrol S.A., Surgutneftegas, CNOOC Limited.

Note that the outlook for this market is being affected by rapid changes in trade relations and tariffs globally. The report will be updated prior to delivery to reflect the latest status, including revised forecasts and quantified impact analysis. The report’s Recommendations and Conclusions sections will be updated to give strategies for entities dealing with the fast-moving international environment.

The sharp rise in U.S. tariffs and ensuing trade tensions in spring 2025 are heavily impacting the oil and gas industry, especially in areas such as exploration equipment, pipeline development, and refining operations. Increased import duties on drilling rigs, steel pipes, and specialized machinery have significantly raised capital expenditures across both upstream and downstream segments. Midstream players are grappling with cost surges for essential components like valves, compressors, and storage tanks, causing delays and disruptions in expansion projects. Refiners, meanwhile, are contending with higher expenses for imported catalysts and control systems critical to operational efficiency. In addition, retaliatory tariffs from major trade partners have curtailed U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, reducing global competitiveness. In response, companies are ramping up investments in domestic manufacturing alliances, digital asset management tools, and diversified energy portfolios to maintain resilience and protect profitability.

Gasoline is a fuel sourced from crude oil and various petroleum liquids, predominantly employed in machines featuring internal combustion engines.

The primary categories of gasoline comprise regular gasoline and special gasoline. Regular gasoline denotes a petroleum product with an octane rating of 87, derived from crude oil and possessing flammable properties. Its main uses encompass transportation, small aircraft, electricity generators, recreational vehicles, and various applications within the realms of transportation, power generation, and other related sectors.

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North America was the largest region in the gasoline market in 2024. Asia-Pacific is expected to be the fastest-growing region in the global gasoline market report during the forecast period. The regions covered in the gasoline market report are Asia-Pacific, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, North America, South America, Middle East, Africa. The countries covered in the gasoline market report are Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, South Korea, UK, USA, Canada, Italy, Spain.

The gasoline market consists of sales of regular gasoline, midgrade gasoline, premium gasoline, ethanol-blended gasoline, oxygenated gasoline, and reformulated gasoline. Values in this market are ‘factory gate’ values, that is the value of goods sold by the manufacturers or creators of the goods, whether to other entities (including downstream manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, and retailers) or directly to end customers. The value of goods in this market includes related services sold by the creators of the goods.

The market value is defined as the revenues that enterprises gain from the sale of goods and/or services within the specified market and geography through sales, grants, or donations in terms of the currency (in USD, unless otherwise specified).

The revenues for a specified geography are consumption values that are revenues generated by organizations in the specified geography within the market, irrespective of where they are produced. It does not include revenues from resales along the supply chain, either further along the supply chain or as part of other products.

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