United States Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2023-2024

Report
165 Pages
October 2023
Region: United States
SIMBA Information
ID: 5898130

The PreK-12 Market, 2023-2024 report examines and analyzes a wide range of key data impacting educational publishers. These include data and trends related to budget and policy, enrollment trends, market size, and competitive analysis including selected company profiles. The data and findings are based on the analyst's internal research and analysis of official data drawn from a wide range of expert timely sources, including main data from the US Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics, along with information from state education departments, local school districts, and state legislative bodies along with information from the analyst's nationwide research that is conducted on an ongoing basis throughout the year, combined with company presentations and public documents.

The report found that total sales of instructional materials reached $9.9 billion in 2022, up 6.3% from $9.31 billion in 2021. The Publishing for the PreK-12 Market, 2023-2024 report further analyzed the market and determined that growth in digital materials will outpace print materials, although the variation is slight. Trade books are an exception, with a CAGR of 4.3% from 2023-2026 expected.

INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER 1: ENROLLMENT & DEMOGRAPHICS

POST-LOCKDOWN ENROLLMENTS LAG
Pandemic-Led Impacts
Longer-Term Trends
Permanent Impacts
THE PUBLIC SCHOOL LANDSCAPE
Table 1. Enrollment in Public K-12 Schools by Level, Fall 2019 to Fall 2023 (in thousands)
Enrollment Trends Vary By State
Table 2. Change in Public School Enrollments by State, 2021-2022 versus 2020-2021 School Years
State Estimates for 2022-2023
Variations by District
Impacts by Race and Ethnicity
Table 3. Enrollment in Public Schools by Level and Race/Ethnicity, Fall 2021 (in thousands)
GENERAL POPULATION TRENDS
Birth Rates
Table 4. Change in Number of Births by Race/Ethnicity, 2021
Youth Population
Table 5. Resident US Population Under 18 Years and Percentage of Population, by State, 2022
Table 6. Number of Children Under 18 in the US, by Age, 2020-2022 and Projected 2023-2029 (in millions)
Population Trends by State
Table 7. Change in Population by State, 2020-2022
NUMBER OF PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Table 8. Number of Public K-12 Schools by Type and Charter, Magnet, and Virtual Status, 2020-21 through 2021-22
ALTERNATIVES TO PUBLIC SCHOOLS
School Choice
PRIVATE SCHOOLS SEE PANDEMIC COATTAILS
Catholic Schools Stay Strong
Table 9. Catholic School Enrollment and Number of Schools, 2022-2023
Table 10. Catholic School Enrollment Trends, Fall 2018 to Fall 2022
CHARTER SCHOOLS
Table 11. Number of Charter Students and Schools, 2018-2019 Through 2020-2021
Table 12. States with the Largest Charter School Enrollment as a Share of Total School Enrollments, 2020-2021
HOME SCHOOLING
Table 13. Number of Students Home-Educated, 2019-2022
VIRTUAL SCHOOLING
Table 14. Number of US Virtual Schools, Enrollment, and Share of Enrollment, 2019-2020
GRADUATION RATES AND DUAL ENROLLMENT
Table 15. Public High School Graduates, by Region, 2019-2020 through 2022-2023 (P)
Dual Enrollment
POVERTY AND HOMELESSNESS
Table 16. Percentage Distribution of Enrollment in Public Schools, by Family Poverty Rate of 5- to 17-Year-Olds Living in the District, 2019-2020
Homelessness and Education
Table 17. Homeless Students (Undergrad, 3- to 5-year-olds, and K-12), 2017-2018 through 2019-2020 (in thousands)
Table 18. Homeless Students Enrolled, by Select Age Levels, 2017-2018 to 2019-2020
CONTINUED RISE OF THE ENGLISH LEARNER POPULATION
Table 19. Trends in English-Language Learner Enrollment, 2000-2001 to 2019-2020
Table 20. English-learner Students Enrolled in Public K-12 Schools by Grade, Fall 2019
Table 21. English-learner Students Enrolled in Public K-12 Schools by Home Language, Fall 2019
Table 22. English-learner Students Enrolled in Public K-12 Schools by Race/Ethnicity and Disability, Fall 2019
Table 23. Percentage of Public School Students Who Are English Learners by State, 2019-2020
SPECIAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENTS DECLINE SLIGHTLY
Table 24. Children Served Under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA), Part B, by Type of Disability, 2020-2021 (in thousands)
UNIVERSAL PREK PROGRAMS CONTINUE TO GROW
Table 25. Percentage of 3- to 5-Year-Old Children Enrolled in School, by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 2019-2020 versus 2020-2021 School Years
Table 26. Availability of Public PreK Programs by State, February 2023
STUDENTS ON THE MOVE
Table 27. Foreign-Born Immigration and Student Immigration, 2013-2022 (in thousands)
Table 28. Annual Population Change, July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022
Exchange Programs
Table 29. Top States for K-12 Schools Certified by the Student and Exchange Visitor Program by State, 2021
Undocumented Students
Table 30. Estimated Population of K-12 Undocumented Students by State, 2021
EVEN POST-PANDEMIC, ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT IN CONNECTIVITY
Table 31. Progress Toward FCC School Connectivity Goals, 2015-2022
Table 32. Percentage of Districts Meeting FCC-Recommended Bandwidth of 1 Mbps Per Student by State, 2021-2022

CHAPTER 2: BUDGET & POLICY

FEDERAL FUNDING REMAINS STRONG IN ADVANCE OF ESSER CLIFF
Congressional Appropriations Target Federal Priorities
Table 33. Department of Education Fiscal Year 2024 President’s Budget, Selected K-12 Programs (thousand $)
Appropriations by State Vary Dramatically
Table 34. Department of Education Grants to Local Educational Agencies, 2022-2024E (thousand $)
Looking Ahead to 2023
Table 35. Federal On-Budget Funds for K-12 Education, by Agency, 2020-2021 (thousand $)
Preparing for the ESSER Funding Cliff
Final Deadline is Looming
Looking Ahead
K-12 Spending By Funding Source
Table 36. Summary of Public Elementary-Secondary School System Revenues, FY2021 (thousand $)
Table 37. Summary of Public Elementary-Secondary School System Expenditures, FY2021 (thousand $)
Table 38. Summary of Public Elementary-Secondary School System Revenues and Expenditures by State, FY2021 (thousand $)
UNCERTAINTY IMPACTS STATE BUDGET FORECASTS
States Announce Funding Increases
Examining Funding Formulas
CURRICULUM RESTRICTIONS AND BOOK BANS
Curriculum Restrictions
Race and CRT
Political Divisions
Impacts of Restrictions
Book Bans in Libraries and Classrooms
SCHOOL CHOICE AND PARENTAL RIGHTS
Parental Rights in the Classroom
POLICY DICTATES SUBJECT MATTER
Computer Science
Career and Technical Education
States’ CTE Programs Expand
The Science of Reading
Dual-Language Programs
PreK and Early Learning
Media Literacy
Social-Emotional Learning: Embraced Despite Divisions
Table 39. State Progress on Social, Emotional, and Academic Development, 2021 (number of states)
SOCIAL ISSUES AT THE FOREFRONT
Gun Violence Incidents on the Rise
Mental Health Is an Ongoing Concern
Inclusivity vs. Fairness: Title IX and Transgender Students
Other Social Issues Having an Impact on K-12 Education
Homelessness and K-12 Schools
Free School Meals for All
Dealing with Drug Use
Impact of Artificial Intelligence
TEACHER STAFFING AND PAY
CYBERSECURITY, PRIVACY, AND CONNECTIVITY
The Cybersecurity Threat

CHAPTER 3: PREK-12 INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS MARKET SIZE

TOTAL SALES OF INSTRUCTIONAL MATERIALS
Sales by Segment
Table 40: Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools, by Segment, 2020-2022 ($ in millions)
Table 41: Market Share, Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools, by Segment, 2020-2022 .. 111
Pandemic Fallout
Move to Digital Slows Post-Pandemic
Table 42: Share of Instructional Materials, Print vs. Digital, 2020-2022
LOOKING AHEAD
Table 43: Forecasted Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools, by Segment, 2023-2026 ($ in millions)
Category Trends Continue
Table 44: Market Share, Forecasted Sales of Instructional Materials Into PreK-12 Schools, by Segment, 2023-2026
Digital Materials Steady at Just Under Two-Thirds of Market
Table 45: Forecasted Share of Instructional Materials, Print vs. Digital, 2023-2026

CHAPTER 4: COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

OPERATIONAL TRENDS IN 2022-2023
Trends and Challenges Face Educators and Vendors
Potential ESSER Funding Cliff Ahead
Difficult Issues Continue to Intensify
Technology: Adapting to the Post-Pandemic Marketplace
How Companies Have Responded to the Trends
Cambium Learning
Cengage
Discovery Education
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Kahoot!
McGraw Hill
Pearson
PowerSchool
Renaissance Learning
Savvas Learning
Scholastic
Stride
PREK-12 COMPANIES’ FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN 2022 AND EARLY 2023
Table 46. PreK-12 Performance Index Most Recently Reported Fiscal Years
Growth Drivers to Watch
Goodheart-Willcox Delays Reporting
Looking Ahead to Fiscal 2023
Table 47. PreK-12 Performance Index, Latest Partial Fiscal Year (% change)
PreK-12 Market Outperforms Publishing as a Whole
STOCK PRICE TRENDS IN 2022-2023
The Year 2023: First Half
Table 48. Public Education Company Stock Index, January 2022-June 2023 (opening & closing prices and % change)
Robust Stock Issuance and Repurchase Activity
Trend Toward Private Ownership Continues
SPACs and IPOs Cool
M&A ACTIVITY IN 2022 AND FIRST HALF OF 2023
M&A Activity in PreK-12 Education Steady in 2022
Table 49. M&A Activity Involving Suppliers of PreK-12 Educational Solutions, 2022
Industry Trends Drive Acquisition Activity
First Half of 2023 Shows a Slowing of M&A Activity
Table 50. M&A Activity Involving Suppliers of PreK-12 Educational Solutions, First Seven Months of Calendar Year 2023
INTEREST FROM PRIVATE EQUITY SLOWS
Table 51. Selected Private Equity Investments in PreK-12 Education, 2022
More Slowing in First Half of 2023
Table 52. Selected Private Equity Investments in PreK-12 Education, First Half of Calendar Year 2023
Private Equity Portfolios Maintain Education Holdings
Table 53. Selected Private Equity Investors in PreK-12 Education, 2023

CHAPTER 5: COMPANY PROFILES

BOXLIGHT
CAMBIUM LEARNING
CENGAGE
DISCOVERY EDUCATION
GOODHEART-WILLCOX
HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT
KAHOOT!
MCGRAW HILL
PEARSON
POWERSCHOOL
RENAISSANCE LEARNING
SAVVAS LEARNING COMPANY
SCHOLASTIC CORPORATION
STRIDE
CONCLUSION

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