Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, 2021-2031

The Global Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market is projected to expand from a valuation of USD 11.91 Billion in 2025 to USD 16.91 Billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 6.02%. This sector involves the engineering and provision of gearbox systems critical for regulating torque and power in buses and trucks weighing over 3.5 tons. Growth is primarily fuelled by the broadening of international logistics networks and increased government investment in infrastructure, which supports the demand for robust heavy-duty transportation. Additionally, stringent regulatory requirements concerning fuel efficiency are hastening the transition toward automated manual transmissions, which offer enhanced operational economy compared to conventional manual counterparts.

However, market progress faces obstacles such as economic instability and the substantial acquisition costs of advanced transmission systems, factors that can postpone fleet updates. Manufacturers are required to manage these financial hurdles alongside supply chain complications that impact output levels. The contraction in demand is illustrated by data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, which reported a 6.3 percent decline in new European Union truck registrations in 2024, falling to a total of 327,896 units. This downturn highlights the heavy vehicle component market's vulnerability to wider macroeconomic difficulties.

Market Drivers

The growth of global logistics and e-commerce sectors acts as a major engine for market development, driving the need for durable fleets capable of handling high-frequency freight operations. As consumer expectations for rapid delivery rise, operators are compelled to invest in vehicles with dependable transmission systems to guarantee operational uptime. This link between freight requirements and vehicle purchasing is clear in key manufacturing regions; according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' 'December 2023 Automotive Production and Sales' report released in January 2024, heavy-duty truck sales in China jumped to 911,000 units in 2023, marking a 36 percent year-on-year rise. Such increases in volume directly broaden the market for transmission producers, who must deliver components that align torque management with modern supply chain necessities.

Concurrently, the shift toward electric and hybrid commercial vehicle powertrains is transforming the transmission landscape. Electric motors necessitate specialized designs, such as multi-speed gearboxes integrated into e-axles, to maximize range and torque efficiency, forcing suppliers to innovate quickly to match electrified system requirements. The strength of this trend is measurable on a global scale; the International Energy Agency's 'Global EV Outlook 2024', published in April 2024, notes that global sales of electric trucks reached approximately 54,000 units in 2023, reflecting a 35 percent increase from the prior year. To remain competitive, OEMs are sustaining high output levels, as evidenced by Daimler Truck, which reported global sales of 526,053 vehicles for the 2023 fiscal year in its 2024 report.

Market Challenges

Economic instability and the significant capital investment needed for advanced transmission systems present major obstacles to market growth. Fleet operators often postpone purchasing new heavy-duty vehicles during uncertain financial times or when faced with elevated operating costs. This reluctance to modernize aging fleets has a direct effect on the supply chain, as a decline in new vehicle orders results in a corresponding drop in demand for new gearbox assemblies. Consequently, when logistics firms prioritize saving capital over equipment updates, original equipment manufacturers are forced to scale back output, leading to lower production volumes for transmission providers.

Recent industry statistics mirror this trend of reduced investment. Data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders indicates that heavy goods vehicle registrations in the United Kingdom fell by 6.0 percent to 10,839 units in the third quarter of 2024. Such a contraction illustrates how wider economic constraints lead to decreased procurement rates for critical components. As a result, transmission manufacturers face interrupted revenue streams and inventory difficulties, effectively stalling expansion within the medium and heavy commercial vehicle sector during periods of financial uncertainty.

Market Trends

The integration of Advanced Telematics for Real-Time Diagnostics is fundamentally shifting the industry's focus from initial hardware sales to total lifecycle management. With transmissions becoming more complex, manufacturers are utilizing connectivity to offer predictive maintenance and maximize fleet uptime, establishing a steady revenue source even during fluctuations in new vehicle demand. This strategic move toward service-focused models, supported by diagnostic data, enables suppliers to offset the effects of cyclical manufacturing downturns. This shift is highlighted by recent financial results; as reported by Sustainable Bus in March 2025 regarding ZF's 2024 performance, the company's aftermarket division saw an organic sales rise of 12 percent to €3.6 billion, in contrast to declines in the new equipment sector.

The broad acceptance of Automated Manual Transmissions (AMTs) is expanding rapidly into emerging markets, driven by the necessity for fleet modernization in regions historically reliant on manual gearboxes. Global OEMs are successfully entering these areas by launching advanced heavy-duty trucks equipped with AMTs, which deliver better fuel efficiency and driver comfort suitable for difficult terrains. This geographical expansion of sophisticated transmission technology is boosting unit volume for premium truck brands beyond traditional North American and European hubs. According to the Volkswagen Group's March 2025 report on the TRATON GROUP's 2024 performance, Scania grew its global unit sales by 6 percent to 102,100 vehicles, a result largely driven by robust growth in its New Vehicles business in South America where modern powertrains are increasingly popular.

Key Players Profiled in the Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market

• Allison Transmission
• ZF Friedrichshafen AG
• Eaton Corporation
• BorgWarner Inc.
• Aisin Corporation
• Dana Incorporated
• Jatco Ltd.
• Magna International Inc.
• Grupo KUO SAB de CV
• Ricardo PLC

Report Scope

In this report, the Global Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market has been segmented into the following categories:

Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market, by Type:

• Automatic
• Manual
• Dual Clutch

Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market, by Fuel Type:

• Petrol
• Diesel
• CNG

Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market, by Gear Type:

• 5-6
• 7-8
• 9-10
• Above 10

Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market, by Region:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• South America
• Middle East & Africa

Competitive Landscape

Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles Transmission Market.

Available Customization

The analyst offers customization according to your specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report:

• Detailed analysis and profiling of additional market players (up to five).

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