Wheat Market Size, Share and Growth Analysis Report - Forecast Trends and Outlook (2025-2034)

The global wheat market was valued at USD 161.32 Billion in 2024. The industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.30% during the forecast period of 2025-2034 to attain a valuation of USD 270.38 Billion by 2034.

Global Wheat Market Growth

The global wheat market value is increasing due to the growing food sector and increasing population, especially in developing nations like India and China. With globalisation, the prevalence of processed food has seen faster growth and, thus, is driving the demand for wheat. The crop is a staple food product in many regions, especially in India, among other Asian countries.

Further, the expanding starch market favours the growth of the wheat industry. The demand for wheat starch has been witnessing a healthy growth for many years and the growth is likely to be more in the coming years, owing to the increasing popularity of processed food.

Wheat starch is also in demand among health-conscious people due to the product being gluten-free and low in calorie content. Additionally, wheat also provides protein, vitamin B, dietary fibre, and phytochemicals. The increasing demand for personal care products including dry shampoo, cleansers, and lotions, is further pushing the wheat starch market.

Industry Outlook

Global wheat production trends from 2018 to 2024 indicate significant fluctuations according to the International Grains Council. In 2018, production was 761.7 million tons, dropping by 3.9% in 2019 to 732.1 million tons. This trend reversed in 2020 with a 3.9% increase to 760.8 million tons. Moderate increases followed, peaking at 803.6 million tons in 2023 before a slight 1.6% decrease to 790.4 million tons in 2024. These variations can be attributed to changing weather patterns and global economic conditions affecting farming outputs.

The increasing import and export of wheat are also supporting the global wheat market development. Russia, along with the European Union, the United States, Canada, and Australia exports large volumes of the crop to other regions.

The increasing global population, dietary preferences shifting towards grains, and expanding applications in food and industrial sectors drive the wheat demand growth.

China's wheat production remained relatively stable, starting at 134.3 million tons in 2018 and seeing minor fluctuations. The highest production was in 2022 at 137.9 million tons, slightly decreasing to 136.6 million tons in 2024. Consistency in production is critical for China to ensure food security for its vast population. China's growing yield reflects the country’s significant investments in agricultural modernization and technology.

The USA saw a notable increase of 8.2% in 2019 to 51.3 million tons but experienced a downward trend to 44.8 million tons in 2022. Production rose again by 9.8% in 2024, reaching 49.3 million tons. This volatility underscores the impact of economic and climatic factors on wheat production.

In 2022, wheat yields across various regions demonstrated notable disparities, measured in tonnes per hectare. Ireland achieved the highest yield at 10.43 t/ha, followed by the Netherlands at 9.39 t/ha, and the United Kingdom at 8.59 t/ha, according to “Our World In Data”. These high yields can be attributed to the implementation of advanced agricultural technologies, favorable climatic conditions, and efficient farming practices.

Wheat Industry Statistics in India

India’s production showed steady growth, starting at 98.5 million tons in 2018 and reaching 108 million tons in 2024. Consistent year-over-year increases reflect improvements in agricultural practices and policies. The global wheat industry trends highlight the interconnected nature of the market, crucial for global food security and trade stability.

Also, the government initiatives to boost the production of wheat in order to make the country self-sufficient and improve food security are some of the crucial market trends.

The National Food Security Mission (NFSM) in India aims to increase the production of wheat and other food grains through productivity enhancement and soil fertility restoration. The efforts taken to provide novel and improved crop production technologies and the distribution of high-yielding varieties/hybrid seeds are expected to drive the demand for wheat in India.

Recent Developments

• In October 2023, The Wheat Disease Early Warning Advisory System (Wheat DEWAS), one of the world’s largest crop pathogen surveillance systems, expanded its capacity to protect wheat in East Africa and South Asia. It functions to boost crop resilience against wheat diseases.
• In September 2022, Lavie Bio, a subsidiary of Evogene, introduced innovations in the global food industry. By focusing on microbiome-based products, the company enhanced crop yield, quality, and sustainability using natural bacteria from plants' growth environments.

Supportive Government Policies and Technological Improvements are Augmenting the Wheat Market Value

• Technological Advancements: Adoption of precision farming and biotechnology improves wheat yield and quality.
• Climate Resilience: Development of drought-resistant and disease-resistant wheat varieties ensures stable production.
• Rising Global Demand: Increasing population and changing dietary preferences boost the need for wheat-based products.
• Government Support: Subsidies, research funding, and policy initiatives enhance agricultural productivity and market growth.

Trade Restrictions and Pest and Disease Outbreaks are Among the Major Challenges in the Global Wheat Market Landscape

• Climate Change: Unpredictable weather patterns and extreme conditions reduce wheat yields.
• Pest and Disease Outbreaks: Increased incidence of pests and diseases threatens wheat crops and lowers production, negatively impacting the wheat market revenue.
• Trade Restrictions: Tariffs, quotas, and geopolitical tensions hinder the global wheat trade and market accessibility.
• Soil Degradation: Over-farming and inadequate soil management lead to reduced soil fertility and long-term productivity declines.

Genetic Modification and Sustainable Farming Practices are the Key Factors Shaping the Global Wheat Market Trends

• Sustainable Farming Practices: Increasing focus on eco-friendly and sustainable agricultural methods to enhance long-term productivity is expected to positively impact the wheat market dynamics and trends.
• Genetic Modification: Development and adoption of genetically modified wheat varieties for improved yield and resilience.
• Digital Agriculture: Implementation of digital tools and data analytics in farming to optimize crop management and efficiency.
• Organic Wheat Production: Growing consumer demand for organic wheat products will likely positively influence the wheat demand growth.

Wheat Industry Segmentations

The report titled “Wheat Market Report and Forecast 2025-2034” offers a detailed analysis of the market based on the following segments:

The market for wheat, based on type, is divided into:

• Whole/Raw
• Flour
• Others

Based on application, the market is segmented into:

• Feed
• Food
• Biofuel
• Others

Market Breakup by Region:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• Latin America
• Middle East and Africa

Global Wheat Market Share

Owing to wheat flour being a staple ingredient in many diets, the demand is expected to surge along with the rising demand for basic food items

According to the wheat market analysis, flour occupies a substantial share of the market. As the global population increases, the demand for basic food items like wheat flour typically rises. This is because wheat flour is a staple ingredient in many diets around the world. Changes in dietary trends can significantly impact wheat flour demand. For instance, a rise in the popularity of baking or an increased preference for wheat-based products can drive up demand.

Increasing Demand for Biofuel to Support Wheat Demand in the Coming Years

The use of wheat as a biofuel primarily revolves around the production of bioethanol, a renewable energy source. Wheat-based ethanol is renewable and can help reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Burning wheat ethanol produces fewer greenhouse gases compared to conventional fuels, thus contributing to reduced environmental impact. In regions with surplus wheat production, converting wheat to bioethanol can provide an alternative market for farmers.

Competitive Landscape

The report offers a detailed analysis of the following key players, covering their competitive landscape and latest developments like mergers and acquisitions:

• Nisshin Flour Milling INC.
• Siemer Milling Company
• Miller Milling Company
• Grain Craft
• General Mills
• ITC Limited
• Ardent Mills
• Farm Fresh Wheat
• Sunnyland Mills
• Bay State Milling Company
• Others

Competitive Factors Propelling the Global Wheat Industry Growth

• Competitive factors in the market are driven by production capabilities, technological advancements, and strategic trade policies.
• Major wheat-producing countries like China, India, Russia, and the US significantly influence global supply.
• Technological innovations in farming practices and the development of high-yield, disease-resistant wheat varieties enhance competitiveness, which will likely influence the wheat demand forecast.
• Additionally, trade agreements and export policies play crucial roles, as geopolitical tensions and tariffs can significantly impact market dynamics and access to key markets.
• Efficient supply chain management, investment in agricultural research, and adaptation to climate change are also important attributes for companies.

Global Wheat Market Players and their Strategic Initiatives

• Key players in the global wheat market include Cargill, Bunge Limited, Louis Dreyfus Company, Glencore Agriculture, and COFCO International.
• Cargill prioritized technological advancements in agriculture and enhanced its grain trading operations through strategic acquisitions.
• Bunge Limited aimed to diversify its product portfolio and strengthen its market position via mergers and partnerships.
• Louis Dreyfus Company invested in digital technologies and improved logistics to optimize supply chain efficiency.
• COFCO International focused on securing long-term supply agreements and investing in agricultural research to boost productivity and sustainability.
• Ardent Mills concentrated on innovation in wheat-based products, enhancing food safety standards, and expanding its product offerings to meet diverse consumer demands.

Other key players include Nisshin Flour Milling INC., Siemer Milling Company, Miller Milling Company, Grain Craft, General Mills, ITC Limited, Farm Fresh Wheat, Sunnyland Mills, and Bay State Milling Company, among others.

Global Wheat Market Regional Insight

The major wheat-producing regions include the European Union, China, India, Russia, and the United States, with the European Union accounting for a fifth of the total global wheat output.

Russia is the leading exporter in the global wheat market, accounting for nearly 18.5% of the total global exports of the crop. The output level especially in Russia and the European Union is rising owing to consumption growth and low harvest in the United States. The growing end-use sectors in Southeast Asia and potential export growth in Russia are providing a push to production growth and boosting the supply share globally.

The major wheat consuming regions include the European Union, accounting for nearly 45% of the global consumption. Other major consumers are China, India, Russia, and the United States. The European Union also imports wheat to meet the domestic demand. Egypt, Indonesia, Brazil, and Algeria are among the major wheat importing regions.

The global wheat market demand is supported by the expanding wheat starch market, which reached a volume of around 5 million metric tons in 2020. The starch market is likely to witness steady growth in the coming years, which is expected to further propel the demand for wheat. The major wheat starch-producing regions are France, the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Australia, Belgium, Canada, China, and Japan.

Key Price Indicators in the Global Wheat Market

Global Supply and Demand:

• Production Levels: Annual wheat production figures from major wheat-producing countries like the USA, Russia, China, India, and the European Union.
• Stock-to-Use Ratio: A measure of the total ending stocks of wheat as a percentage of total use, indicating supply tightness or abundance.

Weather and Crop Conditions:

• Weather Patterns: Impact of weather conditions (drought, flooding, frost) on crop yield and quality can hamper the wheat market growth.
• Crop Health Reports: Reports on disease outbreaks or pest infestations affecting wheat crops.

Geopolitical Factors:

• Trade Policies: Tariffs, trade agreements, and restrictions may impact wheat trade, negatively affecting the wheat industry revenue.
• Political Stability: Political events or instability in key wheat-producing or importing countries.

Economic Indicators:

• Currency Exchange Rates: Impact of currency fluctuations on the competitiveness of wheat exports.
• Global Economic Growth: Influence of economic conditions on consumer demand and purchasing power.

Market Prices and Futures:

• Spot Prices: Current market prices for immediate delivery.
• Futures Prices: Prices for future delivery contracts, indicating market expectations and sentiment.
• Price Volatility: Fluctuations in wheat prices over time can limit wheat market opportunities.

Input Costs:

• Fertilizer and Fuel Prices: Costs of key inputs affecting production expenses.
• Labor Costs: Changes in labor availability and wages impacting production.

Transportation and Logistics:

• Freight Rates: Costs of shipping wheat internationally.
• Infrastructure: Efficiency and capacity of transportation networks.