Indian Commercial Vehicle Growth Opportunities

Alternative Powertrains and New Business Models Will Ensure Transformational Growth

The Indian trucking industry includes a diverse range of vehicles, operators, and logistics services and is a critical driver of economic growth and development. Following years of axle load regulation and the implementation of Bharat Stage 6 emission norms, the industry faced stagnant volumes made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the industry is in the recovery and growth phase now. In 2022, total truck shipment was 0.87 million units. The largest share of the market remains with the light-duty segment, with 0.56 million trucks sold in 2022, followed by the heavy-duty segment with 0.22 trucks, and the medium-duty segment with 0.09 million trucks. With pivotal initiatives such as Bharatmala focusing on road infrastructure and Sagarmala on the modernization of ports, a comprehensive national logistics policy, and a national infrastructure pipeline, the outlay for development is high and will boost the demand for truck deployment. Despite elevated diesel prices, sales of compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks have increased in the medium-duty segment, accounting for 27.8% of the overall powertrain. 

Revised CNG pricing will boost sales. The dedicated liquified natural gas (LNG) policy will increase LNG usage in trucks, especially in the heavy-duty segment, as LNG offers a longer range and performance similar to that of diesel. Leading OEMs have showcased their LNG models as prototypes, with launches expected in 2024. Truck electrification will start with light-duty trucks, target last-mile operations, and expand to other segments when charging infrastructure and acquisition cost improves. Electrification in commercial vehicles is further bolstered by subsidies from the central and state governments. 

In addition, production-linked incentives (PLI) are also available for OEMs. The rise in connectivity and telematics solutions by third-party players and OEMs is improving fleet management for customers; however, more regulation is expected. The overall growth trajectory of the Indian commercial vehicle sector will remain strong.