Most major packaged food categories are mature and rely primarily on population growth, leaving food marketers with the challenge of bringing something new to the table. Opportunities abound for companies that invest in new product launches, ingredient changes, and different marketing tactics to appeal to changing consumer preferences. Still, there is an ebb and flow in some trends as the rise and sometimes recede from consumer awareness. For instance, inflation is a continuation of recent challenges in 2022 and 2023, despite prices easing in growth if not level relative to 2021. Others like sustainability and convenience are reflections of changing consumer priorities and demographics.
Inflation-fueled higher prices are a core trend that began in 2022 and is continuing in 2024, albeit at a slower rate. Supply challenges, higher ingredient and energy prices, and rising labor costs have combined to test suppliers, retailers, and consumers. This has led to consumers seeking value, whether that means in comparison to the price of dining out or in comparison to routine grocery items, with private label options seeing surges across all categories and even beyond the basics to items with trendy flavors and ingredient compositions.
Additionally, food shoppers are increasingly placing sustainability at a higher priority level again, with plant-based options, clean labels, sustainable supply chains, and recyclable and reduced packaging continuing as key trends. Furthermore, shoppers are presenting preferences with contradictions as they are looking for indulgence, but better-for-you versions, along with snacking variations and chef-inspired menus, but with convenient preparation.
With a focus on growth opportunities and “what’s next” - along with bringing decades of food and beverage market perspective and analysis to the table - U.S. Food Market Outlook 2024: Opportunities & Challenges With Pricing, Convenience, Sustainability & More is packed with actionable insights about consumer trends, behavior, and motivations. This report delivers predictions and recommendations designed to guide retailers, service providers, wholesalers, food processors, packaging firms, and investors in making business decisions about the food market.
Report Scope
Combining the extensive monitoring of the food and beverage market with proprietary surveys, the U.S. Food Market Outlook 2024 is the go-to source for a complete understanding of the U.S. food market. This broad-based report evaluates current trends and future directions for marketing and retailing, along with consumer patterns across the food market.
U.S. Food Market Outlook 2024 examines product availability; surveys retail channel trends; and analyzes consumer trends and motivations. This report focuses on the market for selected food products sold to consumers in the United States through retail channels. All retail channels of distribution are covered in market sizing and discussion, including supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters, warehouse clubs, natural food stores, convenience stores, drugstores, dollar stores, and direct-sales channels including online. Market size data and projections are provided at the retail sales level.
Report Methodology
The information contained in U.S. Food Market Outlook 2024 was developed from a variety of primary and secondary research sources.
Primary research includes interviews with food and beverage market experts and participation in and attendance at food industry events. Primary research also includes the National Online Consumer survey, a quarterly poll of U.S. adult consumers (age 18+) conducted by the publisher to analyze purchasing patterns and attitudes with regard to food and beverage preferences. Supplementing the exclusive survey is an extensive analysis of MRI-Simmons’ National Consumer Study, which is based on approximately 25,000 adult respondents surveyed annually.
Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business, and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports.
This report contains dozens of numerical tables and charts, as well as numerous product photographs. Our estimates of market size and company performance are based on various sources including reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, relevant publications, and other market research sources. The analysis in this report also draws, as a background source, on retail sales tracking data from mass market and speciality channels.
Food Trends
Food industry trends that had been developing for a number of years were accentuated by the pandemic. Consumer behavior changed significantly, leading to unprecedented demand for not only products to meet basic needs, but also to satisfy new desires resulting from altered lifestyles. The following trends are some of the most important to emerge and flourish. They are likely to gain further traction as consumers continue resuming traditional activities altered somewhat by behavioral changes that will remain sticky.
Healthier-For-You
Many people became more focused on staying healthy due to the pandemic. As a result, nutrition and wellness remain important to them, and functional health benefits of products have become even more desirable. IFIC’s 2023 survey shows consumers choose “fresh” and “low sugar” as the leading ways to define healthy food. Other leading definers include “good source of protein” and “natural”. Protein has risen as a food priority for an increasing number of people as popular diets and eating philosophies have reduced consumption of carbs and animal protein.
More than half of consumers are following special diets or eating patterns in 2023. Losing weight is the top reason people diet, and the increased use of weight loss drugs and the hype surrounding them have caused some concern about the impact on food consumption. While use of GLP-1 medications like Ozempic has been increasing, it is currently small and limited by supply issues, high cost, side effects, and lack of insurance coverage. Some in the food industry feel increased long-term use of the drugs could hurt food consumption. Most food marketers that have commented publicly think the impact will be negligible. Others see it as an opportunity to promote their healthier-for-you food products.
Mindful Indulgence
Indulging while being mindful of one’s health and wellness remains a powerful trend in both food and beverages. Food marketers continue to develop healthier-for-you products that are more nutritious and healthful, but still taste great and deliver similar experiences to their established counterparts. The pandemic boosted this trend, as more consumers want healthier options from all foods and beverages but still desire indulgent and comforting experiences. This has become even more relevant as people eat and snack throughout the day. Harken Sweets’ candy bars are marketed as “Indulgence, Reimagined”. They are made with fair trade cocoa, a date-based caramel and other plant ingredients, are low calorie, have no added sugar, and provide as much fiber as 5 cups of kale according to the company.
Responsible New Product Development
A growing number of consumers - particularly younger ones - make food choices at least partly on how responsible companies are with new product development and operating their businesses. Issues of most concern include food safety and nutritional value, animal welfare, transparency, environmental impacts, food waste and other social issues.
Sustainable packaging ranks high for consumers seeking eco-friendly products. According to the February-March 2024 edition of National Online Consumer Survey, 50% of respondents noted that they were more willing to take action about sustainability - in purchases and waste - than they were last year. 30% report that they thought that buying products in packaging that is recyclable or made from recycled materials is very important to living a sustainable lifestyle, and another 47% considered it somewhat important.
Private Label Still Outperforming National Brands
While private label sales were impacted by reduced consumer demand across food categories, they outperformed national brands as many shoppers sought lower prices. In 2023, dollar sales of private label store brands (across all categories, not just food) increased 4.7%, higher than the 3.4% growth of national brands according to the Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA). The report said unit sales for store brands were about flat compared to a decline of 2.8% for national brands in 2023.
Work-From-Home Trends
The pandemic had significant and lasting impacts on telecommuting, changing people’s behavior even though many have returned to offices full or part time. Working from home, even for part of the week, is correlated with eating more at home. This leads to greater consumption of certain foods like snacks, consumed throughout the workday, as well as breakfast and lunch items.
Work Habits in 2024: Typical Work Weeks
Some employers that temporarily allowed remote work have asked employees to return to worksites at least some of the time, but working at non-traditional locations is continuing.
Offices/on-site locations are the most common places for employed consumers to work all the time, with a 28% share; some of these individuals' jobs preclude working from home based on their duties (e.g., retail workers cannot serve customers or stock stores remotely, nor can employees who work on a manufacturing lines). Otherwise, some office workers or other employees who may be able to fulfill their duties offsite may choose to work on-location or not be allowed to work from home, depending on company culture and management decisions.
13% of employed consumers report that they work from home all the time, indicating a significant share of consumers work fully remote jobs. Other areas such as co-working spaces, libraries and coffee shops, and client sites are clearly less permanent working locations for most people.
However, numerous consumers reported working at various sites most of the time, half of the time, or occasionally; this indicates significant penetration of hybrid work arrangements, flexibility on where people work, or types of jobs that have shifting locations (such as jobs with frequent travel, either based locally or traveling to sites nationally or internationally).
