Global Risk Report: Q2 2026 Update

Global Risk Report: Q2 2026 Update

Summary

The thirty-second update of the the analyst Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q2 2026 ranked Singapore at the top, followed by Switzerland and Ireland. 41 countries were identified in the low-risk zone, 52 countries under medium risk, 56 countries under high risk, and four countries in the very high-risk zone in GCRI Q2 2026.

Global Risk Report is based on the analyst Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from the analyst Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, the analyst analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Scope

• Global (GCRI): 53.71/100 in Q2 2026 (vs 54.75 in Q1 2026)

The improvement was broad-based rather than driven by any single region: all four major regions posted lower scores after the April 8 US-Iran-Israel ceasefire pulled the acute war premium out of markets. Energy and input costs eased from their first-quarter peaks, and investor positioning moved off its most defensive stance. The gain remains fragile because sanctions ambiguity, unresolved US trade policy, and elevated global debt continue to limit how far confidence can recover.

• Asia-Pacific (APAC): 51.96/100 in Q2 2026 (vs 53.18 in Q1 2026)

Trade policy, rather than energy, was the dominant swing factor for APAC in Q2 2026. After the ceasefire, Middle East maritime routes and refining capacity stabilized, easing freight and input cost pressures across the region. In contrast, escalating US tariff measures increased trade compliance and administrative costs and reduced earnings visibility for exporters amid higher trade policy uncertainty. Domestic demand-led economies were more resilient than export-dependent ones, and this divergence is likely to widen if trade tensions persist and trade becomes more fragmented.

• Americas: 55.53/100 in Q2 2026 (vs 56.71 in Q1 2026)

Consumer and monetary-policy dynamics drove the improvement more than geopolitics alone. Cooler energy prices gave the Federal Reserve added room to reconsider its cautious rate stance, offering early relief to housing and commercial real estate. Still, unresolved tariff decisions and stretched household budgets kept credit conditions and market volatility above pre-conflict norms, capping the scale of the recovery.

• Europe: 40.48/100 in Q2 2026 (vs 41.14 in Q1 2026)

Europe's improvement centered on banking behavior as much as energy markets: lenders remained cautious on credit to energy-intensive borrowers even as Brent and European gas benchmarks retreated from Q1 highs. The Israel-Lebanon truce reduced the odds of a wider shipping disruption, although renewed Hezbollah-Israel exchanges show how quickly downside risks could re-emerge, keeping the ECB and Bank of England guarded on further rate cuts.

• Middle East & Africa (MEA): 63.61/100 in Q2 2026 (vs 64.78 in Q1 2026)

MEA's decline reflects a partial, not full, normalization: the April ceasefire eased counterparty and sanctions-screening pressure on banks and insurers, but incidents such as Iran's early-May strikes on the UAE kept deal-making subdued. Diversification-focused Gulf economies proved more resilient than hydrocarbon-dependent peers, while Hormuz remains only partially secure, leaving crude flows exposed to renewed disruption.

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