Small Arms Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, 2021-2031

The Global Small Arms Market is projected to expand from USD 16.08 Billion in 2025 to USD 22.53 Billion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 5.78%. Defined as lethal, man-portable weapons for individual use - such as revolvers, self-loading pistols, rifles, carbines, and light machine guns - the market is chiefly driven by the urgent modernization of military stockpiles and rising defense budgets worldwide due to geopolitical volatility. Additionally, the sector is supported by enduring civilian demand for personal defense and recreational shooting, with the National Shooting Sports Foundation noting that the U.S. firearm and ammunition industry achieved a total economic impact of $91.7 billion in 2024, highlighting its financial strength.

Despite this growth, the market encounters significant obstacles arising from strict regulatory frameworks and complicated international export controls. The divergence in laws regarding weapon transfer and civilian ownership across jurisdictions imposes heavy compliance burdens on manufacturers. These regulatory barriers frequently prolong procurement timelines and limit access to critical regions, effectively hindering the smooth expansion of the global small arms trade even amidst strong demand.

Market Drivers

Increasing global defense budgets and military spending act as the main propellant for the small arms sector, fueled by the necessity to address asymmetric threats and geopolitical instability. Nations are prioritizing the replacement of outdated service weapons with modular, lightweight systems that provide better ergonomics and lethality, resulting in major contracts for defense firms. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's April 2025 fact sheet, global military expenditure rose by 9.4 percent in real terms to a record $2.71 trillion, a surge that supports rapid modernization programs. Illustrating this industrial impact, Rheinmetall AG reported in 2025 that sales in its Weapon and Ammunition division reached €2.78 billion for fiscal year 2024, driven by strong NATO demand.

Simultaneously, growing civilian demand for personal protection and self-defense firearms solidifies market growth, especially in regions that allow private ownership. This segment is driven by steady consumption of semi-automatic pistols and modern sporting rifles, underpinned by safety concerns and the popularity of recreational shooting. Manufacturers maintain high production levels to meet this commercial demand, which serves as a buffer against government procurement cycles. According to Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc., the company generated net sales of $129.7 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 (December 2024), demonstrating the consumer market's resilience and ensuring a diversified revenue stream for stakeholders.

Market Challenges

Rigorous regulatory frameworks and intricate international export controls constitute a major hurdle for the global small arms market. Manufacturers face a complex web of conflicting national laws and international treaties regulating weapon sales, compelling them to dedicate substantial resources to legal compliance rather than market growth. The unpredictability of export licensing often results in indefinite delays or abrupt contract refusals, undermining supply chain reliability and deterring international buyers who require timely procurement for national defense.

These impediments inflict severe financial consequences, directly reducing market revenue. When export licenses are restricted or revoked due to shifting geopolitical stances, manufacturers lose access to established markets. According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation in 2025, the industry suffered an estimated $500 million in annual lost business specifically due to restrictive export control policies. Such significant financial losses illustrate how regulatory volatility interrupts sales and curtails the capital necessary for future industry expansion.

Market Trends

The move toward 6.8mm Next Generation Squad Weapons marks a pivotal change in small arms ballistics, aiming to surpass the performance limits of legacy 5.56mm platforms against modern body armor. Militaries are prioritizing modular weapons in this intermediate caliber to enhance terminal effects and range in near-peer conflicts, a shift that requires significant industrial tooling upgrades for mass-producing high-pressure, hybrid-case ammunition. For instance, Olin Corporation announced in a February 2025 press release that it has broken ground on a dedicated 450,000-square-foot manufacturing center to satisfy the U.S. Army’s demand for the new 6.8mm cartridge.

In parallel, the incorporation of AI-driven fire control systems is transforming infantry precision by automating target acquisition and engagement processes. These intelligent optics employ advanced computer vision and ballistic algorithms to detect threats, including moving drones or concealed enemies, allowing the weapon to fire only when a hit is assured. This technology significantly enhances first-round hit probabilities while conserving ammunition in high-stress scenarios. As reported by Defence Industry Europe in May 2025, SmartShooter secured a $13 million U.S. Army contract for the SMASH 2000L system, confirming the operational need for algorithmic sighting solutions in modern warfare.

Key Players Profiled in the Small Arms Market

• Vista Outdoor Inc.
• SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC.
• Sig Sauer, Inc.
• HECKLER & KOCH GmbH
• Kalashnikov Concern JSC
• Colt's Manufacturing Company LLC
• FN Herstal, S.A.
• Walther Arms, Inc.
• SPRINGFIELD, INC.
• O. F. Mossberg & Sons, Inc.

Report Scope

In this report, the Global Small Arms Market has been segmented into the following categories:

Small Arms Market, by Type:

• Pistol
• Shotgun
• Revolver
• Others

Small Arms Market, by Action:

• Automatic
• Semi Automatic

Small Arms Market, by End Use Sector:

• Civil and Commercial
• Defense

Small Arms Market, by Region:

• North America
• Europe
• Asia-Pacific
• South America
• Middle East & Africa

Competitive Landscape

Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Small Arms Market.

Available Customization

The analyst offers customization according to your specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report:

• Detailed analysis and profiling of additional market players (up to five).

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